Novice Chasers 2018/2019

He didn't jump a hurdle too smartly the last time. Why would they make any decision until he's fit enough to school over fences?
 
It is the itch you cannot scratch syndrome.
A young horse possibly Champion Hurdle standard ; looking at Faugheen who could have gone chasing after his novice hurdle career I imagine all concerned are glad he did not.
Only Tim Forster and Dan Moore would bypass a Champion Hurdle in their day and the latter had a go with l'Escargot in 69 when second favourite.
 
Hen bypassed it too with Best Mate and reaped the rewards, although a certain Istabraq may have swayed her.

Hard to see them persevering over the small ones with Samcro
 
I get that. I know from speaking to Cantoris (Oran) all the way back when, they agonised over the decision to go over fences after his Supreme. Colm and the family made the correct decision as it turned out. Second time of asking under Barry Cash and then a narrow victory the following year. It could all have been very different though.

I see Samcro as different though. This is the O'Leary's we're talking about. A production line of horses, and a stated intent to go for the most winnable races, and with the aim of buying chasers not hurdlers, to win Champion Chase's, Ryanair's, and most significantly Gold Cup's. Going down the Champion Hurdle route would be a complete u-turn in their modus operandi.

In that case surely, an Arkle, or more likely a JLT given breeding and hurdles camplaign would be easily the more likely. 80/20 in my mind.
 
Samcro 7/1 to go unbeaten through the season (Both UK and Irish) seems fair value to me providing he goes chasing. Less so if he stays over Hurdles.
 
Black Op goes chasing

[FONT=&quot]He’s gave Samcro something to think about then put up a tough performance to win at Aintree. He’s schooled over fences, he's a great jumper. He’ll get 3m but probably start over 2m4f - we’re excited by him!”[/FONT]
 
I agree 7/1 is a fair price for a season long interest, but will hold off until it becomes a little clearer whether he stays over hurdles
 
Do you still collect if Samcro gets injured early in the season or even doesn't run at all?
 
granger said:
Black Op goes chasing

[FONT="]He’s gave Samcro something to think about then put up a tough performance to win at Aintree. He’s schooled over fences, he's a great jumper. He’ll get 3m but probably start over 2m4f - we’re excited by him!”[/FONT]
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Samcro -Arkle
Black Op - JLT
RSA - Next Dest

One I had marked down after Cheltenham, Santini worries me though in the RSA
 
granger said:
Prefer the Footpad bet of those 2
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Do they allow them in a double?!

To be honest though I'm not keen on either bet. It's a long old season, and both Willie and Gordon often go to the well once to often at the end of the season.
 
Double J said:
Samcro -Arkle
Black Op - JLT
RSA - Next Dest

One I had marked down after Cheltenham, Santini worries me though in the RSA
Click to expand...

Despite all the hype and noise about where Samcro will end up, surely logic will prevail? It wouldn't be usual for the Brother Grimm to stay over hurdles when they see him as a future Gold Cup horse so, despite a bit of recent airtime, the Champion Hurdle can't be the way they'll go. Also if they choose to wait and run in a graded hurdle to find out, they would be late starting him and thereby put him at a disadvantage over fences compared to the other best novices around, who will surely be doing the usual and accumulating fencing experience. Also which is the race they most want to win? It's not the Champion Hurdle, it's the Gold Cup. If they delay he'll be 9 at least when he gets his first crack. Given the modus operandi and the horse they've got, surely they'd want him there as an 8 year old? I would.

So lets assume he goes novice chasing. Why would they risk him in an Arkle? Surely he'd be vulnerable to a novice with more speed? And also why would they risk stretching him out to the RSA trip when they don't need to yet, particularly when he's shown all his best form over hurdles over the intermediate trip. He's also bred to appreciate a trip. The Brothers Grimm also always say they target the most winnable races with their novices. If so, and there's no change of mind, The Arkle and RSA would set a challenge against a different set of novices than those he beat over hurdles last season, whereas in the JLT he'll likely face Black Op again as his biggest challenger. By being clear early they will also force the hand of the other big stables. Quite rightly others will run scared, Willie and Ruby included, and they will also think about their most winnable chances. If Samcro is targeted at the JLT, it won't be that race will it, whereas Trainers may see him as more vulnerable in the Arkle or the RSA and take him on.

I've heard counter arguments that suggest that Gordon's strength in depth in his novices will almost force them to either stay over hurdles or go for the Arkle. Utter tosh. Sure it'll cross their minds and they'll debate it, but Samcro is easily their best horse and ultimately they'll make a plan for him, and the rest will fit in around it.

When you follow all the logic through and push comes to shove, then surely they can only tell Gordon to go down the JLT route with him can't they?
 
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Maruco said:
Despite all the hype and noise about where Samcro will end up, surely logic will prevail? It wouldn't be usual for the Brother Grimm to stay over hurdles when they see him as a future Gold Cup horse so, despite a bit of recent airtime, the Champion Hurdle can't be the way they'll go. Also if they choose to wait and run in a graded hurdle to find out, they would be late starting him and thereby put him at a disadvantage over fences compared to the other best novices around, who will surely be doing the usual and accumulating fencing experience. Also which is the race they most want to win? It's not the Champion Hurdle, it's the Gold Cup. If they delay he'll be 9 at least when he gets his first crack. Given the modus operandi and the horse they've got, surely they'd want him there as an 8 year old? I would.

So lets assume he goes novice chasing. Why would they risk him in an Arkle? Surely he'd be vulnerable to a novice with more speed? And also why would they risk stretching him out to the RSA trip when they don't need to yet, particularly when he's shown all his best form over hurdles over the intermediate trip. He's also bred to appreciate a trip. The Brothers Grimm also always say they target the most winnable races with their novices. If so, and there's no change of mind, The Arkle and RSA would set a challenge against a different set of novices than those he beat over hurdles last season, whereas in the JLT he'll likely face Black Op again as his biggest challenger. By being clear early they will also force the hand of the other big stables. Quite rightly others will run scared, Willie and Ruby included, and they will also think about their most winnable chances. If Samcro is targeted at the JLT, it won't be that race will it, whereas Trainers may see him as more vulnerable in the Arkle or the RSA and take him on.

I've heard counter arguments that suggest that Gordon's strength in depth in his novices will almost force them to either stay over hurdles or go for the Arkle. Utter tosh. Sure it'll cross their minds and they'll debate it, but Samcro is easily their best horse and ultimately they'll make a plan for him, and the rest will fit in around it.

When you follow all the logic through and push comes to shove, then surely they can only tell Gordon to go down the JLT route with him can't they?
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Bomb-proof logic. For mischief's sake, now watch him hit the deck in his first two attempts over fences....

I'm only half kidding. I just had a little twinkle when he fluffed his lines at Punchestown that it may not map out straightforwardly with this horse.

As I say, nothing more than a feeling.
 
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Early championship Races - First Thoughts

Arkle - Paloma Blue

JLT - Samcro

RSA - Santini

They are all obviously really open races at this stage but I don't see as many immediate fancies as I normally would at this time of year
 
Yes I noticed that tis morning ,do Paddy Power know something we don't because they are 6pts higher than anyone else.

Anyway has there been any news regarding If The Cap Fits , who would be of interest to me if he is fit and well and gong novice chasing.
 
Maybe not a horse many on here will know but looks like Judkin is going straight over fences and may possibly have left Jimmy Mangan's yard

Won his point and his bumper with ease
 
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