Novice Chasers 2020 / 2021

Looking forward to this race today. See how Captain Guinness does. I’m also certain 1 of JPs in today’s race will be aimed for a nice novice handicap chase of some sort, will be keeping a close eye.
 
Hope it’s nothing serious with Captain Guinness, but was quite taken with the winner. He looked to be loving the jumping and there’s always a possibility he gets underestimated because of how the favourite ran
 
Captain Guinness declared clinically abnormal by the vet which was enough for me to cash out my antepost voucher for the time being. Clinically abnormal can be a real worry, and even if he recovers quickly and is back in full training by Christmas he'll be a seriously inexperienced horse come March.

In answer to Entoucas, I'd be looking further down the field DJ. Entoucas ran his race and wasn't hidden away and doesn't look like a plot job. Gordon is the master of that, getting Grade 1 horses into handicaps off ridiculous marks even after the UK handicapper has had his say. Aramax has now had two very quiet races, and expect him to 'improve for experience and Spring ground' before going off 3/1 in the Grand Annual of near bottom weight. :ninja:
 
Perpetual said:
Fair price I reckon and another plus is he's with Willie Mullins, so even though he's JP's unlikely to be messed around with...
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I'd love to hear why his form dipped so quickly and he wasn't considered for the Festival last season. Something wasn't quite right with his campaign, so that explanation is the key to whether he could be top class and is one to get onside, or alternatively that it's more likely he'll fall short when he meets the best horses around.

Anyone heard anything about what issues he might have had if any? It could be as simple as he struggles to stand up to Willie's training regime or doesn't come out of his races well. But I'd rather hear there was something specific and he's over it now.
 
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Maruco said:
Captain Guinness declared clinically abnormal by the vet which was enough for me to cash out my antepost voucher for the time being. Clinically abnormal can be a real worry, and even if he recovers quickly and is back in full training by Christmas he'll be a seriously inexperienced horse come March.

In answer to Entoucas, I'd be looking further down the field DJ. Entoucas ran his race and wasn't hidden away and doesn't look like a plot job. Gordon is the master of that, getting Grade 1 horses into handicaps off ridiculous marks even after the UK handicapper has had his say. Aramax has now had two very quiet races, and expect him to 'improve for experience and Spring ground' before going off 3/1 in the Grand Annual of near bottom weight. :ninja:
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Or galway plate
 
Maruco said:
I'd love to hear why his form dipped so quickly and he wasn't considered for the Festival last season. Something wasn't quite right with his campaign, so that explanation is the key to whether he could be top class and is one to get onside, or alternatively that it's more likely he'll fall short when he meets the best horses around.

Anyone heard anything about what issues he might have had if any? It could be as simple as he struggles to stand up to Willie's training regime or doesn't come out of his races well. But I'd rather hear there was something specific and he's over it now.
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Insofar as Cheltenham is concerned, connections had Saint Roi for the County Hurdle, which would have left the Conditionals Handicap as their only other Festival option (and Front View was their fancy for that race).

Add the subsequent loss of Aintree and Punchestown, and the fact he’s bred to be a chaser, and maybe it was an easy decision to put him away for a novice-chase campaign, after disappointing at Leopardstown (where quicker ground might have been a factor).

You need to stop prevaricating, wringing your hands, and overthinking it, Maruco.....and just follow me in again. ;):lol:
 
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As much as I like Unexpected as a chaser its frustrating to see him leaving a hurdle mark of 137 to pursue the bigger obstacles. I had him 10lbs well in and thought this would have been exploited by the green and gold.That said maybe they rate him so highly there hand has been played for them. I have also taken the 20,s but hendersons horse will be a tough nut to crack
 
frontrunner said:
As much as I like Unexpected as a chaser its frustrating to see him leaving a hurdle mark of 137 to pursue the bigger obstacles. I had him 10lbs well in and thought this would have been exploited by the green and gold.That said maybe they rate him so highly there hand has been played for them. I have also taken the 20,s but hendersons horse will be a tough nut to crack
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That's an interesting thought Brian. Might they go back for the County at Cheltenham if there's nothing left in his chase mark and they see him as being short of what it takes to win an Arkle.

The only think is can the English handicapper retrospectively look at his hurdle mark based on his new chase mark? I think he can. He's a JP horse though so I'm sure there'll be a plan!
 
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Grasshopper said:
Insofar as Cheltenham is concerned, connections had Saint Roi for the County Hurdle, which would have left the Conditionals Handicap as their only other Festival option (and Front View was their fancy for that race).

Add the subsequent loss of Aintree and Punchestown, and the fact he’s bred to be a chaser, and maybe it was an easy decision to put him away for a novice-chase campaign, after disappointing at Leopardstown (where quicker ground might have been a factor).

You need to stop prevaricating, wringing your hands, and overthinking it, Maruco.....and just follow me in again. ;):lol:
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That's probably fair enough Nick. Not high enough in the pecking order and not wanting to waste his hurdles mark. But as Brian points out you'd have thought they'd look to exploit it this season.
 
Maruco said:
That's probably fair enough Nick. Not high enough in the pecking order and not wanting to waste his hurdles mark. But as Brian points out you'd have thought they'd look to exploit it this season.
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He was definitely fancied for the Supreme when winning his debut. Largely as WPM didnt have anything else obviously lined up for the race at the time. Didnt waste time putting him over fences.
 
Maruco said:
I'd love to hear why his form dipped so quickly and he wasn't considered for the Festival last season. Something wasn't quite right with his campaign, so that explanation is the key to whether he could be top class and is one to get onside, or alternatively that it's more likely he'll fall short when he meets the best horses around.

Anyone heard anything about what issues he might have had if any? It could be as simple as he struggles to stand up to Willie's training regime or doesn't come out of his races well. But I'd rather hear there was something specific and he's over it now.
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I think they likely knew he was above average

Won his maiden, losing at Limerick probably convinced them he wasnt ready to be a graded horse and he ran in the big handicap in Feb

Stable and owner had another even better in for Cheltenham (who stays hurdling) and it's likely he was put away for a spring festival

He had a very impressive start to chasing yesterday where he made all the decsions for Mark Walsh

The only concern I would have is that looking at how he travelled yesterday, he will like Winter ground rather than Spring
 
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Great Field had high-class form on quicker going, so possibly the Leopardstown run was just one of them things, and Unexcepted will prove equally as versatile as regards the ground.
 
Diol Ker goes tomorrow. 3/1 looks potentially very, very generous given his competition when you look back at him beating Monkfish.
 
Bonjers said:
Diol Ker goes tomorrow. 3/1 looks potentially very, very generous given his competition when you look back at him beating Monkfish.
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6/5 not so good for a horse that's been wrapped in cotton wool so far!....should make a good spectacle though...
 
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