Euronymous
Senior Jockey
True I guess. He never convinced with his jumping in the Arkle yet was foot perfect at Sandown prior to that. He was much more the latter than the former today. There's no way he'd have been out of the frame anyway
Novice Chasers 2020 / 2021
- Thread starter Diamond Geezer
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Perpetual
Senior Jockey
Looking forward to The Big Breakaway tomorrow at Newbury, in a race Champ won last season
Loved him last year and whilst he disappointed at Chelthenham, has been my long-term RSA fancy, particularly from the UK
The Tizzard horses looking to need the run, so he’s not one to smash into at odds on, but will be really disappointed if he doesn’t turn out as top class
Loved him last year and whilst he disappointed at Chelthenham, has been my long-term RSA fancy, particularly from the UK
The Tizzard horses looking to need the run, so he’s not one to smash into at odds on, but will be really disappointed if he doesn’t turn out as top class
barjon
Rookie
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Yes, me too!! Tizzard reckons he might turn out to be the best chaser they’ve had.
tiggers1972
Senior Jockey
Big Breakaway Non Runner any idea why?
PlaceBacker
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Ground
tiggers1972
Senior Jockey
Good G/S in places, wow.
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Perpetual
Senior Jockey
Just spotted Allmankind’s off novice chasing this afternoon…He’s always looked a bit of a headcase so he’ll either be an exhilarating jumper or Harrys in for a rodeo ride…
Skelton gave the most unenthusiastic interview about him I think I've ever seen. Basically saying he was really forward last year, everything over hurdles has now surpassed him so we may as well go over fences although Harry isn't keen.
Perpetual
Senior Jockey
Well exhilarating it is then… could hardly have been any more impressive IMO. Definitely seems to have calmed down a few notches as settled ok for the first mile or so. Harry look liked he enjoyed it as well!
Twisters are all running a flat at the moment though. I reckon him and Tizzard have been spending too much time in each others yards!
I'm really hopeful that Twister picks up though as I think he has the best handicapped horse in the Paddy Power Gold Cup and I can't back it!
I'm really hopeful that Twister picks up though as I think he has the best handicapped horse in the Paddy Power Gold Cup and I can't back it!
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Good Boy Bobby/Ryman form with Mister Fisher?
Didn’t realise Simply The Betts moved to the Twiston yard.
Neither, although I have backed Simply The Betts ante post.
Count Maribel is seriously well handicapped on my figures, and as long as it stays dry he’d go very close. He still needs 5 to come out, but as I said the real concern is Twisters form, and I can’t quite press the button.
Count Maribel is seriously well handicapped on my figures, and as long as it stays dry he’d go very close. He still needs 5 to come out, but as I said the real concern is Twisters form, and I can’t quite press the button.
Think I backed this last year in the race. Travelled an absolute dream for 2/3rds of the race and just didn’t manage to get home.
Maxbet
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I have the utmost respect for your opinion's Paul, but I can't for the life of me see how this horse is well handicapped. Even his last win against a plodder over 2m4f doesn't come anywhere near consideration for this....Really would like to read your musings on how you merit this hype...
The first thing I’d point you towards his record in Oct/Nov 1111126. Compare that to his record from December onwards and it’s clear he’s an Autumn horse that needs to be fresh with top of the ground conditions. Write off any race where he doesn’t get thise two things and a different picture emerges. He’s also unexposed as a Grade 3 horse and his record suggests his current mark is very generous if he gets what he needs.
The 2nd was to Lostintranslation who was 3rd beaten a couple of lengths in the Gold Cup, and the 6th was in last years Paddy Power Gold Cup on unsuitable soft ground. He’s best fresh on ground no worse than good to soft. He’s won on soft but on my ratings he’s a stone worse on it. I hold two previous ratings of my own, one 150+ At Carlisle and the second 149p at Cheltenham, and there is feasible retrospective back and cross form that makes both stand up with hind site. Kildisart (155), who Count Maribel has beaten under his favoured conditions over both fences and hurdles. Even using the current ratings of those horses that finished ahead and behind him in the RSA suggest the ratings I have make sense.
At the top end I think he is likely to be a 152-154 horse with usual improvement and under his optimal conditions, which I think he is likely to get next Saturday. And in the context of the race I don’t see a bunch of horses that are likely to be 10lbs better than their current marks, Those that could be are last seasons novices, and they don’t look to be an outstanding bunch. I’d have Simply The Betts and Mister Fisher as the two likely biggest improvers from that group.
In terms of unexposed, comparing Saint Sonnet’s JLT to Count Meribel’s RSA is a useful exercise given Count Maribel didn’t stay in his RSA. But even so, at the weights they notionally come out as very similar in terms of ability. The difference for me though is that Count Maribel will now run at the trip he's better at, whereas Saint Sonnet looked to me as though he wants further after being outpaced in the JLT. Count Maribel is unexposed enough himself. He’s only had 7 chase starts, of which 2 were under his conditions. Both of which he won, including beating Le Breuil over course and distance (despite a phone horrendous mistake), and Le Breuil himself then went on to win the National Hunt Chase that season.
Lots of subjective stuff in there of course, as there always is with ratings, but having gone back to them and having retested them I’m comfortable that he’s potentially a 150’s horse running off 142 under the conditions where he’s most likely to be at his best.
Assuming he gets in, he goes into this seasons renewal 4lbs lower than last year carrying 10lbs less, with a forecast that suggests he may well get suitable ground this time. The worry as I’ve said though is Twisters form, which is terrible at the time of season where he’s usually flying. Plus he still needs 6 to drop out so he may not line up at all.
The 2nd was to Lostintranslation who was 3rd beaten a couple of lengths in the Gold Cup, and the 6th was in last years Paddy Power Gold Cup on unsuitable soft ground. He’s best fresh on ground no worse than good to soft. He’s won on soft but on my ratings he’s a stone worse on it. I hold two previous ratings of my own, one 150+ At Carlisle and the second 149p at Cheltenham, and there is feasible retrospective back and cross form that makes both stand up with hind site. Kildisart (155), who Count Maribel has beaten under his favoured conditions over both fences and hurdles. Even using the current ratings of those horses that finished ahead and behind him in the RSA suggest the ratings I have make sense.
At the top end I think he is likely to be a 152-154 horse with usual improvement and under his optimal conditions, which I think he is likely to get next Saturday. And in the context of the race I don’t see a bunch of horses that are likely to be 10lbs better than their current marks, Those that could be are last seasons novices, and they don’t look to be an outstanding bunch. I’d have Simply The Betts and Mister Fisher as the two likely biggest improvers from that group.
In terms of unexposed, comparing Saint Sonnet’s JLT to Count Meribel’s RSA is a useful exercise given Count Maribel didn’t stay in his RSA. But even so, at the weights they notionally come out as very similar in terms of ability. The difference for me though is that Count Maribel will now run at the trip he's better at, whereas Saint Sonnet looked to me as though he wants further after being outpaced in the JLT. Count Maribel is unexposed enough himself. He’s only had 7 chase starts, of which 2 were under his conditions. Both of which he won, including beating Le Breuil over course and distance (despite a phone horrendous mistake), and Le Breuil himself then went on to win the National Hunt Chase that season.
Lots of subjective stuff in there of course, as there always is with ratings, but having gone back to them and having retested them I’m comfortable that he’s potentially a 150’s horse running off 142 under the conditions where he’s most likely to be at his best.
Assuming he gets in, he goes into this seasons renewal 4lbs lower than last year carrying 10lbs less, with a forecast that suggests he may well get suitable ground this time. The worry as I’ve said though is Twisters form, which is terrible at the time of season where he’s usually flying. Plus he still needs 6 to drop out so he may not line up at all.
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Grasshopper
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I have to agree with Maxbet on this one, Paul.
Scrambling home over 2m4f from a horse that went onto win a NH Chase over 4m just doesn’t read as rosy to me as it does you, and I have him down as a horse that won some weakish-looking novices, at a time when his yard is often much more forward than others. In fact, I’d say that’s likely a bigger factor in his successes than the ground, tbh.
Still, you should get a chance to test your theory. He shouldn’t have too much trouble getting into the race, if he only needs a half-dozen to come out. Good luck with it.
Scrambling home over 2m4f from a horse that went onto win a NH Chase over 4m just doesn’t read as rosy to me as it does you, and I have him down as a horse that won some weakish-looking novices, at a time when his yard is often much more forward than others. In fact, I’d say that’s likely a bigger factor in his successes than the ground, tbh.
Still, you should get a chance to test your theory. He shouldn’t have too much trouble getting into the race, if he only needs a half-dozen to come out. Good luck with it.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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I'm pretty sure I have a good mark for Count Meribel too.
As always, it’s a game if opinions fellas. Digging into this kind of stuff serves me well.
There’s enough in his back form now that gives me comfort with the ratings I gave him at the time, and the fresh horse on decent ground thing is quite obvious to me. He’s also completely unexposed under his optimum conditions, and there’s plenty of reason for me to think he can improve significantly on his mark.
There’s enough in his back form now that gives me comfort with the ratings I gave him at the time, and the fresh horse on decent ground thing is quite obvious to me. He’s also completely unexposed under his optimum conditions, and there’s plenty of reason for me to think he can improve significantly on his mark.
If you get time to dig it out Maurice I’d be interested to see where you are with him.
We’ve agreed on far too much recently. The fact that we differ on this one means I might actually be on to a winner! :lol:
Grasshopper
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Definitely. They may not always win, but the effort that goes into finding one off a lower mark than you give, will generally reward you in the long term.