Novice Chasers 2020 / 2021

Latest Exhibition v Longhouse Poet tomorrow at Punchestown should be interesting and hopinging the Nolan horse is as good or better over a fence as he was over hurdles. Can’t back him at odds-on and if getting involved it will have to be Run Wild Fred ew, as he’ll definitely come on for his Limerick debut where he jumped fine and just got tired
 
I like Opposites Attract against the front two.

Has some form with the smart Francin, who I’d backed ante-post in a handful of Festival races (typically missed him winning at Navan the same week) and I’d have him a lot closer to Longhouse Poet than hurdle ratings would suggest.
 
Good race indeed folks

One to see who looks beefy in the parade ring
I do have in my notes that LP is a hoss that will win a race at a big price - hopefully not today mind
 
I'm not sure if he still qualifies as a novice, but still looking forward to seeing Global Citizen possibly run in the Haldon Cup at Exeter this Tuesday.

He ran with credit in the Arkle when out running odds of 33/1 by finishing fourth, while before that beating the promising Rouge Vif at Kempton off level weights on what was only his second start over fences.

Global Citizen one to watch this season, imho.

I couldn't be sure what his targets will be though, assuming he stays over 2 miles.
 
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I think Global Citizen wants a flat track to be at his best Martin. Although it’s all relative to the opposition. He is definitely better going right handed, so half his criteria is satisfied at Exeter. My issue with him though is a Ben Pauling’s form. His whole string look a bit flat at the moment. I’ll wait for the final decs to decide on a selection I think. If Pauling’s form improves I’ll be all over Global Citizen like a rash at Kempton over Christmas.
 
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I just happened to be browsing about this morning and came across Simon Rowlands's latest sectional analysis item at the ATR site. The closing paragraphs were of particular interest as they looked at the 2m Chses at Cheltenham last week:

https://www.attheraces.com/blogs/se...s-and-a-duo-of-two-mile-cheltenham-contenders

His thinking regarding Fusil Raffles very much reflects my own MO with ante-post betting: when I come across something that in the course of a season puts up a performance that would win at least an average renewal of a festival race I usually get involved ante-post at the time, more so once the NRNB and/or BOGs kick in.

Shishkin is obviously the most likely winner at this stage considering he's being talked of in the same awed tones as Altior but if Fusil Raffles already has a figure that would put him in the mix it's entirely possible he'll improve again by March.

At 16/1 he seems a reasonable each-way pop at this stage.
 
Maruco said:
I think Global Citizen wants a flat track to be at his best Martin. Although it’s all relative to the opposition. He is definitely better going right handed, so half his criteria is satisfied at Exeter. My issue with him though is a Ben Pauling’s form. His whole string look a bit flat at the moment. I’ll wait for the final decs to decide on a selection I think. If Pauling’s form improves I’ll be all over Global Citizen like a rash at Kempton over Christmas.
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Interesting. Ten declared for Tuesday, including Global Citizen and four other horses rated in the 150's. A case could be made for a few of them. Having only had the three chase starts I'm hoping Global Citizen is the one horse probably open to the most improvement, but it might not work out like that.

Is that race at Christmas at Kempton over two miles the Desert Orchid Chase, Paul?
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I just happened to be browsing about this morning and came across Simon Rowlands's latest sectional analysis item at the ATR site. The closing paragraphs were of particular interest as they looked at the 2m Chses at Cheltenham last week:

https://www.attheraces.com/blogs/se...s-and-a-duo-of-two-mile-cheltenham-contenders

His thinking regarding Fusil Raffles very much reflects my own MO with ante-post betting: when I come across something that in the course of a season puts up a performance that would win at least an average renewal of a festival race I usually get involved ante-post at the time, more so once the NRNB and/or BOGs kick in.

Shishkin is obviously the most likely winner at this stage considering he's being talked of in the same awed tones as Altior but if Fusil Raffles already has a figure that would put him in the mix it's entirely possible he'll improve again by March.

At 16/1 he seems a reasonable each-way pop at this stage.
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Fusil Raffles is a notebook horse of mine and I’d got it noted as an excellent performance so it was encouraging to read the SR piece. Thx for bringing it to attention.
 
Marb said:
Interesting. Ten declared for Tuesday, including Global Citizen and four other horses rated in the 150's. A case could be made for a few of them. Having only had the three chase starts I'm hoping Global Citizen is the one horse probably open to the most improvement, but it might not work out like that.

Is that race at Christmas at Kempton over two miles the Desert Orchid Chase, Paul?
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That's the one, Marb. Would suit him perfectly if the ground holds up. Can't imagine Altior or Defi turning up and Politologue definitely won't so it looks open for one like last season when Bun Doran took it.
 
Marb said:
Interesting. Ten declared for Tuesday, including Global Citizen and four other horses rated in the 150's. A case could be made for a few of them. Having only had the three chase starts I'm hoping Global Citizen is the one horse probably open to the most improvement, but it might not work out like that.

Is that race at Christmas at Kempton over two miles the Desert Orchid Chase, Paul?
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Hills have priced it up
6/4 Greanateen
4/1 Glen Forsa
13/2 Espirit Du Large
8/1 Not that Fuisse
10/1 Global Citizen & Vision Des Flos
Really don't get the hype with the fav. Espirit/Global Citizen dutch looks the play here.









 
Greaneteen was beaten 5 lengths in the Grand Annual giving weight away to chosen Mate. He made a mistake at the second last that cost him momentum and any chance, and Chosen Mate has already been out and proven what a ridiculously well handicapped horse he was. Nicholls has said he thinks he will make up into a Champion Chase horse, and add to that Nicholls string absolutely flying out the traps so I think Greaneteen will be really hard to beat. 13/8 isn't the best price in the world but I really do see him winning this.

The one I'd want to be on each way is Vision des Flos. The thing that's holding me back is Tizzard's from which has been pretty ordinary so far this season. However VdF has had a wind op and tends to be horse that doesn't take too much getting fit. He usually thrives at this time of the year and his form tails off in the second half of the season. 10/1 each way is fair enough with 3 places in play.

Of the rest, Global Citizen I've mentioned previously. If this were at Kempton or on a similar flat right-handed track, and Pauling was in any kind of form, I'd have the mortgage on, but he'll wait for Christmas as I've already said. Glen Forsa and Esprit di Large are both interesting and potential improvers, but I don't really see them reaching the same level as Greaneteen, so I can't back them for this giving weight away to him. Maracudja and Bun Doran are presumably going to spend most of their season getting their handicap marks down, so they may be interesting in the spring.

I can't see Pink Eyed Pedro and Moonlighter being good enough, but Not That Fuisse is interesting. I suspect the Skelton's are in handicap mark management mode with him, and already have their sights set on either the Plate or the Grand Annual in March. He does have fitness on his side though, and this is a decent pot. I'm half wondering whether they're okay with him winning or going close as he'd probably still need a few pounds to get in. He may well be a danger without winning, before being put away for the spring, so I think I'll include him in reverse exactas with the other two and, although I'm still undecided, I may also back him each way at 8/1 as there's nothing wrong with trying to fill the frame at the right prices.
 
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Maruco said:
Greaneteen was beaten 5 lengths in the Grand Annual giving weight away to chosen Mate. He made a mistake at the second last that cost him momentum and any chance, a
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Meh, he sandwiched Us and Them and Theinval. He's a **** price tomorrow.
 
I'd be pretty much of the same opinion. Backed him NRNB for the Arkle after he won at Fakenham. Paul Kealy has been putting him up in a few places as a likely QM candidate on account of him being 5 and the interference suffered 2 out in the grand annual. I watched it back and I'm not so sure it was all that bad. No more promising than Chosen Mate. Guess he has the right profile and Cobden very complimentary about him last year
 
Euronymous said:
Hills have priced it up
6/4 Greanateen
4/1 Glen Forsa
13/2 Espirit Du Large
8/1 Not that Fuisse
10/1 Global Citizen & Vision Des Flos
Really don't get the hype with the fav. Espirit/Global Citizen dutch looks the play here.
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Hills 11/2 Global Citizen now.
 
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Well that was cosy enough but helped by the other fancied ones underperforming


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Paul was right about Global Citizen and stable form, pulled up in the end, surely better than that.
 
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