Novice Chasers 22/23

2-1 is crazy though this early in the season; the over-round on some of the antepost books is shocking and the prices look like NRNB odds.

Those odds imply that if the competition run as expected between now and the festival that Jonbon would go off evens on the day when you factor in the injury/setback risk. This seems like a poor wager with so many good horses in Ireland that haven't even been out yet.
 
While I am in no way tempted by the 2/1 the question I always ask to those who crab antepost odds is - Would you be willing to lay him any bigger? The answer in this case from me personally would be no!

2/1 still means that there is a 33% chance he doesn't win, that seems about right to me!
 
Beef or Salmon said:
While I am in no way tempted by the 2/1 the question I always ask to those who crab antepost odds is - Would you be willing to lay him any bigger? The answer in this case from me personally would be no!

2/1 still means that there is a 33% chance he doesn't win, that seems about right to me!
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Yes, when I posted yesterday about the shortness of the price, that was the first question I asked myself - I almost invariably do - but is it the correct approach?

Bookies have a much bigger picture, wider opportunities for profit and better information. They could easily have held the 7/2 - which was already skinny for a horse that had never jumped a fence in public - and seen how the general betting public reacted. I don't imagine many people were tempted by the 7/2 because it meant they probably had it well onside.

I reckon it's just a way of getting their names into the papers for free while at the same time suckering mugs in at false odds.

It's a no-lose situation for them. After all, Jonbon only has to stand on a stone for Hendo to put out a rumour that it won't run.
 
7/2 with ? on jumping - 2/1 with question answered. ‘Tis an exceptionally skinny price, but he’s an exceptionally good horse. I’d still prefer to be thinking about evens (or less) on the day, though.
 
barjon said:
7/2 with ? on jumping - 2/1 with question answered. ‘Tis an exceptionally skinny price, but he’s an exceptionally good horse. I’d still prefer to be thinking about evens (or less) on the day, though.
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Let's be thankful it's a JP horse, should alleviate all the Henderson, Left foot in, Right foot in, do the OK he's not running and I'll decide, cause that's what it's all about...
 
Beef or Salmon said:
While I am in no way tempted by the 2/1 the question I always ask to those who crab antepost odds is - Would you be willing to lay him any bigger? The answer in this case from me personally would be no!

2/1 still means that there is a 33% chance he doesn't win, that seems about right to me!
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The question I ask myself is this:

Would he still be 2/1 if Dysart Dynamo, El Fabiolo, or Appreciate It.....or all three.....win their Beginners Chases in similar fashion.

For all that I felt he was very impressive yesterday, there's still too many good prospects still to run, to justify this short a price, imo.

Right now, I'd be a layer; Jonbon's current price being largely dictated by reputation/breeding, than actual achievement. We need to bear in mind that he was comfortably beaten in a Supreme (would almost certainly have been a distant 3rd if Dysart Dynamo had stood up), and he only scrambled home from El Fab at Aintree (arguably slightly lucky to win too).
 
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Well chief was 9/1 for his Arkle :D

El Fab is the one of the mullins trio, I most look forward too

Dysart seems like the one who will make the grandest debut given his running style
 
people slating bookmakers for antepost being dead and Jonbon's price being an example of that miss the reason why really. especially when you have a well known Racing Post tipster saying similar on twitter and comparing it to Sprinter Sacre's price after his first chase run 11 years ago. he's picked out a year that was very competitive in the 2 mile novice chase division compared to now. who's the danger to Jonbon? one of willie's and Mighty Potter? he's about the right price looking at the current state of things imo.

furthermore, people saying the bookies just slash the price based on hype and no substance fail to note that the price is basically the same to lay on the exchange (little bit higher but no more so that it would be on the day of the race). for me the market is correctly perceiving this will likely be a small number of runners and the potential threats are minimal rather than bookmakers ruining a certain type of market.
 
A Plus Tard can be backed at 4-1 for the Gold Cup. Let that sink in.

I'd lay Jonbon at 2-1 if I had the money to do so; there's just so much that can happen between now and March. Even putting aside injury there's no saying he won't step up in trip and the ground is clearly an unknown at this point too.

With regard to the competition there's a lack of depth, but there's talent at the top end and plenty of time for a couple of horses to emerge.
 
yeah don't really get the APT comparison. i know the argument is going to be he's far more proven etc but so will his competitors. gold cup obviously much more likely to be a deeper race and it's bloody hard to win 2 of them. and it'll be his 3rd go around. i don't think for a minute he should be shorter than jonbon (or jonbon bigger) but game of opinions etc.

agree more with the last sentence, however i think a big reason we see prices like Jonbon's in races like the arkle at this time of year is that they are becoming less and less competitive as time goes on and are usually small fields. things like that are hugely factored into the prices.
 
Just watched yesterday's race.

The conspiracy theorist in me is running riot.

Cobden, for me, took a pull on Monmiral towards the end of the back straight and allowed J to go a long way clear before closing the gap again up the straight without effort. West Cork wasn't off an inch, being given a public gallop before closing down the front two from the home turn.

I reckon connections of the beaten horses had more than their mortgages on Jonbon.
 
Does any of our forum members have access to this Racing Post article published today about Thedevilscoachman.

I was looking at his form the other day and one of his hurdle wins last season looked good based on other horses franking the form.

He is entered on Sunday in a novice chase. I have to admit having been through his form it seems he is not the greatist jumper of a fence, and I haven't ruled out he may still go for more staying hurdle races later in the season.

If anyone can link what Noel Meade has said today about him or paraphrase it on here then much appreciated.
 
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Marb said:
Does any of our forum members have access to this Racing Post article published today about Thedevilscoachman.

I was looking at his form the other day and one of his hurdle wins last season looked good based on other horses franking the form.

He is entered on Sunday in a novice chase. I have to admit having been through his form it seems he is not the greatist jumper of a fence, and I haven't ruled out he may still go for more staying hurdle races later in the season.

If anyone can link what Noel Meade has said today about him or paraphrase it on here then much appreciated.
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Noel Meade may not run Thedevilscoachman Sunday if there is no more rain as he needs it soft.
Ida's Boy may be his Florida Pearl Chase runner Sunday if ground stays as it is; yielding to soft.
Beacons Edge may revert to staying hurdles as he feels he may not be brave enough for open chases.
 
"Going easily when fell 3 out". As a DD backer, that's exactly how I recall it too.

A personal opinion, but I felt he was going much better than Jonbon at the time, though no doubt he would have been comfortably beaten by Constitution Hill.
 
OK, Dysart Dynamo and Jonbon probably going as well as each other when the former tipped-up. DD certainly wasn't "cooked" at the time, however.
 
I was heavily into DD too.

I honestly have no strong recollection of how I felt he was going at the time of the fall but the horse was "clinically abnormal" next time and I wonder if we'll actually see him again.
 
The three of the set some gallop (and they weren’t cart horses behind) and you would expect them to suffer for it late on. Maybe Jonbon did a bit, but CH just looked stronger and stronger. Blew them away, indeed - he won’t get beaten unless he trips up.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I was heavily into DD too.

I honestly have no strong recollection of how I felt he was going at the time of the fall but the horse was "clinically abnormal" next time and I wonder if we'll actually see him again.
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willie and one of the other mullins lot (think it was patrick) gave a pretty positive report on him pre season

not sure if that's worth anything though
 
I think Grass mentioned he liked Gerri Colim on another thread

Saw these comments (a few days old)

[FONT=&quot]I doubt if he’ll come back here for the Drinmore in a couple of weeks time. He could go to Limerick at Christmas; you probably wouldn’t get it soft enough for him at Leopardstown. He doesn’t have to have it soft but he seems so effective on it.[/FONT]
 
Jonbon did his job well but not compared to others in the past like Sprinter Sacre Douvan
or more recently Galopoin Des Champs at Leopardstown, who had the other jockeys saying they had never jumped 3 fences so fast in their lives.

It's not 2/1 Jonbon for the Arkle he was economical without being brilliant it's 2/1 Nicky Henderson and the lack of decent opposition.
It's unlikely Willie Mullins will want to send over any of his before Cheltenham so we won't know the full strength of things until nearer the time

WPM has always said Appreciate It was a chaser in the making but he was very disappointing last season over hurdles.
Sir Gerhard looked the part over 2m5f and staying 2m over fences is a big plus in the Arkle so he could prove the best of his.

Dysart Dynamo was lookin held in the Supreme I think he'll be wanting a slower pace and further.

Bannbgidge was very impressive the other day and could be the main danger come March.

Mighty Potter will make a top class chaser but over longer.

Not exactly booming with talented 2 milers so it looks like another Trophy for the maestro if he stays sound..
 
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