Novice Chasers 22/23

Ive watched the race again, my first thoughts were Dysart was cooked in the Supreme before coming down, not entirely convinced on replay.

Wouldnt have got near the winner, but I think it would have been a race for second still. Went and bombed at Punchestown but Im willing to give him another go. Ive already bet him at 20s and 16s. Will leave it at that.

Jonbon wont face anything of note over here before Cheltenham, so he wont be getting any bigger.
 
Last edited:
Funny how we all remember things differently and what influences that. I was all over Dysart like a rash and my memory is that he was a busted flush before he fell simply from the way he had pulled and raced with so much exuberance, but I've not watched it back.

Not overly convinced either how it effects him as a chaser, he was always clearly going to be a better chaser than a hurdler. Once a potential chaser reaches a certain level as a hurdler I think its 'largely' irrelevant what that final level/rating is.
 
I've watched it back a couple of times too now, and whilst Dysart Dynamo wasn't getting anywhere near Constitution Hill, I'm not buying the argument that he would have been beaten by Jonbon. He didn't strike me as legless. Perhaps he might have been beaten by Jonbon if he'd stayed up, but Jonbon was off the bridle too and had a lot of ground to make up. Constitution Hill simply blew them away in the manner of the most exciting novice for a very long time. We already know the time was much quicker than Honeysuckle and hour later, but ignoring that, Jonbon himself put up a time that would have won most of the last 10 Supreme's, and likely Dysart Dynamo would have done similar so he really shouldn't be written off.

What's interesting to me now though is what might happen next March. Given he's such a choke out type Dysart Dynamo will surely be aimed at the Arkle with El Fabiolo. I don't see Willie stepping either up in trip. DD just wouldn't get home over further, and El Fab is bred to stay at the minimum. Tactically you'd assume Dysart tries to make all from the front, and Jonbon and El Fab run there own race against each other with the assumption that they finish strongly and beat Dysart. Fences make the Arkle slightly easier to get home though, and I've though for some time that Dysart Dynamo is the value antepost Arkle bet.

I agree that Jonbon is too short now. The Mullins pair will possibly get there with unblemished records, plus there are others to consider from Closutton too such as Flame Bearer who has been talked up, and Appreciate It who could also stay at the minimum, so Jonbon could trade at bigger at some point. I build antepost books and take the earliest prices, but for most people who were sufficiently impressed and fancy Jonbon, surely he's just a wait until the day price. Would anyone genuinely consider backing him right now at 2/1? I doubt it. I'd say the right price is more like 3/1-7/2, and the 7/4-2/1 is just a further indicator of how defensive the bookies are with antepost prices these days.
 
Novice chases in Ireland this weekend have disappointing fields

Last years Drinmore was a weak race, unless some more come out very soon, it may repeat itself
 
Disappointing Minella Crooner didn’t manage to hold on there having taken a clear lead


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Sir Gerhard drifting for all possible Cheltenham targets. Add that to Three Stripe Life's form knock in the opener at Thurles and Banbridge looks value at 12s for the Turners'
 
I've backed Flame Bearer for the Turners, but he has missed/swerved both entries so far. He is still in the Drinmore, but if he doesn't go there, I reckon I'd be as well wiping my hoop with the bets.
 
Three Stripe Life can't be judged by the form of a horse he beat a dozen lengths the last day can he?

He'll start fav for the Turners Chase in March and win making Banbridge look like a mere handicapper.
 
Last edited:
Marb said:
Three Stripe Life can't be judged by the form of a horse he beat a dozen lengths the last day can he?

He'll start fav for the Turners Chase in March and win making Banbridge look like a mere handicapper.
Click to expand...

Hopefully a few of the big guns including Three Stripe Life and Banbridge turn up for the Drinmore on December 4th.
 
Banbridge is a nice horse but I wasn't as impressed as some were the last day.

Glory and Fortune was upsides at the second last and he jumped terrible throughout.

Banbridge will need to step it up bigtime to beat horses like Three Stripe Life.
 
Last edited:
I think he won with good jumping at a trip short of his optimum. He's won twice at the track, including at the Festival, and he's double figures for what is likely to be his target given Jonbon's presence. Three Stripe Life still with stacks to prove.
 
Pleased with Minella Cocooner. Jumped well aside from the last and most encouragingly he settled really well. The winner won well tbf. Journey with Me missed one before departing and I'm not sure I trust him. He'd be one you'd consider backing win only at a big price.
 
Last edited:
Hendo gets slagged whe he doesn't run one but where are the challengers to Jonbon for the Henry VIII Novices' Chase?

Sandown increased the prize money from 25k (altior) to 45K (Edwardstone) and it could end up a virtual walkover if with only 5 entered

The Tingle Creek (Shiskin) on the same card has attracted 7 entries and at least that looks a but more competitive
 
Tanlic said:
Hendo gets slagged whe he doesn't run one but where are the challengers to Jonbon for the Henry VIII Novices' Chase?

Sandown increased the prize money from 25k (altior) to 45K (Edwardstone) and it could end up a virtual walkover if with only 5 entered

The Tingle Creek (Shiskin) on the same card has attracted 7 entries and at least that looks a but more competitive
Click to expand...

Small fields the norm in the Henry VIII. There hasn't been more than 7 runners (2021 running) for the last decade, and it's been as low as 4 runners a couple of times in that period.

There's only so many horses capable of going at G1-level in novice chases, and trainers probably take the view that there's little-point in staring through Jonbon's hoop from 10L back, and potentially smoking a handicap mark in the process. The Drinmore in Ireland being run the same weekend possibly has a small impact too (thought that is over a half-mile further).
 
Very pleasing performance from Ballygrifincottage at Haydock, over a trip which should really be short of his best. Jumped lovely.
 
Last edited:
Back
Top