Novice Chasers 22/23

JamesRB said:
does seem willie doesn't have a clue who his best horses are and what trips they'd run going forward. always felt Appreciate It would step up in trip for the spring festivals but if he wins this i'm not sure.

also think if you're a Jonbon backer you're pretty happy to see him doing this.
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Suspect he probably already has an inkling as to who needs to run where at Cheltenham, but wants it confirmed this weekend.

Of those entered in the Arkle, only El Fabiolo has been left in the 2m5f G1 novice chase on the Sunday, so suppose there's still a chance he may switch.
 
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I have no idea which horse Paul Towend but if he doesn't chose Dysart Dynamo I fear he won't be riding the winner.

Appreciate It looks more like a 3 miler in the making than an Arkle horse while Dysart Dynamo looks every bit like a 2 miler.
He's a better faster slicker jumper and I doubt if many will get near him on Satrurday and if he wins as easily as i think he'll be challenging Jonbon for favourtism in March.
 
barjon said:
I think it’s a very small chance. Very highly thought of, but has had his problems with back and wind surgery. After the hurdle pipe opener in December I thought he would have been ready for the Cotswold last time to show whether he was destined for the top table. Didn’t jump too well and pulled up, so I think the high hopes for him are dashed. I suppose there’s a chance that the poor performance was down to his jumping which may be improved if it’s not down to the back problems, but I’m not counting on it. Shame really, I hope I’m wrong.
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Think he meant Dysart.

I reckon El Fabiolo makes them both work if he jumps better than on his chase debut
 
Admittedly, I have a bit of a soft spot for the horse, but Saint Roi's price of 12/1 seems a bit of an insult to me.

For all that he ultimately disappointed somewhat as a hurdler, the best of his form puts him around Honeysuckle level when her allowance is discarded....or if you prefer, bang-on Appreciate It's level - and he did win (an admittedly weakish-looking) G1 novice chase over C&D at Christmas.

With Dysart Dynamo sure to pour it on, the race should be run suit Saint Roi now that hold-up tactics seem to have improved him, and whilst I concede his profile is much less sexy than some of the other Mullins horses, I can't see why he's 2, 3, 4 times their price. I've had to have a little on each-way.
 
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Best prices are showing an over-round of just 5% on this race.

Is this normal a couple of days before a high-profile event like this? I don't normally track this sort of thing, but it seems low to me? I only checked because at BP, everything in the race has drifted to a degree according to the RP.
 
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wilsonl said:
Think he meant Dysart.

I reckon El Fabiolo makes them both work if he jumps better than on his chase debut
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Ah! Right! Apologies to granger. I should have appreciated that. Just that I have been fixated on Dusart so saw nothing else.
 
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Just had alook at the latest Cheltenham betting. Does anyone find it interesting that Appreciate @ 9/2 is joint favourite with Dysart Dynamo for the Arkle but his price of 7/2 for the the Turner's would indicate the bookies think that may be his target,

I would be pretty certain Paul Townend would like to be riding both at Cheltenham.

This could be a finding out exercise by having Dysart Dynamo set a blistering pace in the Irish to give them a good idea where to send each horse at the festival.

AI did get 2m5f in a very ordinary bumper but that doesn't tell them much.

It certainly will gives me a bit more confidence that Dysary Dynamo will come out on top tomorrow if Paul Townend sits out the back on Appreciate it.
 
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If he can jump like Jonbon!

Imagine if DD had tipped up two out. No doubt he would have been cruising.
 
After the fact but Willie Mullins did say he thought El Fabiolo would give Appreciate plenty to think about.

Danny Mullins left nothing in the tank for Dysart and he's better than that and the Arkle is another course on different ground on another day

I'd be surprised if Appreciate It, who was after all a Champion Hurdle flop, now goes for the Arkle and if he does I'd be surprised if he beat Dysart let alone El Fabiola.

Whether I should be worried by the winners performance having backed Jonbon I really don't know......very hard to judge is he is the better horse or not.
 
I was very, very impressed by MP...he seems to glide across the turf with real class. Future Gold Cup horse for me.
 
If evidence were ever needed that most of the odds compilers haven’t got a fecking clue, look at the prices for the NH Chase. Gerri Colombe is 2nd fav with all NRNB Bookies but he’s no longer eligible to run in the race. Gaillard a good thing at 6/4 IMO
 
I think Gailard is a great lay

questionable jumper and has been campaigned openly, his level is known

would be hopeful there are a few better than him, second season or not
 
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Arkle - Obvious two horse race, prefer Jonbon's jumping.

BA - Penalty kick for Gerri surely.

Turners - Surprised Might Potter is shorter for this than GC is for the BA. Not wholly convinced by him.
 
“If Gordon Ellliott decides he doesn't want to go to Cheltenham (this season) I'd have no issue with that. Next season GERRI COLOMBE could be a Gold Cup horse. I'm sure there will be ante-post punters going bananas because I've told you he might not go to the festival but we're looking at next year and the Gold Cup for this horse if we can keep him sound”

He’ll go of that I’m pretty sure. However if Thyme Hill jumps like he did at Kempton rather than Newbury, it’ll take a very good one to beat him.
 
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