Novice Hurdlers 2009/2010

neo05 said:
a forgotten horse seems to be, Loosen My Load, won nicely in cheltenham in november, anyone heard anything about him since, is he going to the festival?
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I think the idea was to give him a break. After winning at Cheltenham in November Bromhead said that he had held something back for the Supreme Novices, but that he had been in training for "quite a while so we'll give him a little break" at the beginning of this year.

So it may be that things are progressing according to plan.
 
Mullins is ver sweet on his novice hurdlers on RPTV and I think he really fancies Quel Esprit. I was really taken with him on his first few runs and his cheltenham bumper run and haven't been put off by his defeat, particularly with Coole River going in again.
 
Did he mention Fionnegas, aragorn?

I still think this one has a real chance in the Neptune (step back up very much in his favour, and sure to improve, imo), but he has barely warranted a mention from Mullins lately, insofar as the Festival is concerned. I think he is a better horse at 2m5f than Quel Esprit is likely to be, and he's a bit of a forgotten horse, imo.
 
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Neptune Hurdle

After being very sweet on Rite of Passage for quite some time, I am starting to wonder what he will find off the bridle, and it is also a negative he has yet to race in a graded race, and be reasonably tested.

I think the best bet (providing the ground is on the slow side) is Quel Esprit to be placed, and a little win bet.

I don't fancy Peddler's Cross at all, and can't figure Finian's Rainbow out. To me, he looked like he would struggle to stay based on his run over xmas, and I don't see how he can improve the necessary amount to win a race that looks well up to par. Then you see Geraghty naming him as the horse he is most looking forward to at Cheltenham, and many reasonable judges really fancying him.

I think Reve de Sivola isn't good enough, and will probably do a little reverse forecast on the two Irish horses. I think Ireland have the best hurdlers in all the novice races.
 
Hamm said:
Would you be worried about him on good ground/for a turn of foot?
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Yes....I was really sweet on him earlier in the season for any race he was going to turn up in but I have come around to the conclusion we will not see the best of him until next year over fences. Clearly though a very smart sort and the money for him is interesting.
 
Hamm said:
I think Reve de Sivola isn't good enough
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He might not be, the Irish challenge looks really strong for this, but I can't have Finians Rainbow and Peddlers Cross at their odds relative to Nick's animal. Can anyone honestly see a McCain horse who's been running in crappy races up here winning a Festival contest? Not a chance. And Reve De Sivola has handed FR his arse once - and will do so again. But oh wait, isn't that a Henderson horse - must be tons of improvement in him. So, RdS at 12.5 or the other two at 6s and 8s? It's not even a choice really.
 
I don't like any of the 3 myself but don't disagree with your reasoning. I can't understand how people think FR is good enough, and am wondering is there something that hasn't been seen thus far or is it something I'm completely missing.
 
Watch his work with Petit Robin on the RP TV site - anyone watching that would be put off backing him for any Grade 1 race IMO.
 
Irish Stamp said:
Watch his work with Petit Robin on the RP TV site - anyone watching that would be put off backing him for any Grade 1 race IMO.
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Is it contemporary footage on the RP site, Martin?

I remember they had a video of the pair working together around Christmas time (Henderson upsides in his Land Rover) and thinking that Petit Robin had gone much the better. He subsequently won the Desert Orchid (I think it was), and if I hadn't already been balls-deep in useless Fix The Rib vouchers, would definitely have backed him. I also remember thinking at the time that Finian's Rainbow went with less well than I'd hoped, and that he would possibly be vulnerable next time. He was beaten shortly thereafter at Newbury.

I'm not saying that Finian's Rainbow will win the Neptune (incidentally, a name I'm rather liking as a Festival race-name), and it's possible that PR and FR are regular work-partners, but you might want to check that the footage is up-to-date, before dismissing the latter completely
 
Euronymous said:
He might not be, the Irish challenge looks really strong for this, but I can't have Finians Rainbow and Peddlers Cross at their odds relative to Nick's animal. Can anyone honestly see a McCain horse who's been running in crappy races up here winning a Festival contest? Not a chance. And Reve De Sivola has handed FR his arse once - and will do so again. But oh wait, isn't that a Henderson horse - must be tons of improvement in him. So, RdS at 12.5 or the other two at 6s and 8s? It's not even a choice really.
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Given that I've backed them both, I like to think Peddlers Cross and Finians Rainbow have decent chances in their own right and relative to Reve De Sivola.

McCain has already trained Festival winners in recent times and I suspect there will be plenty more to come. Peddlers Cross has been highly impressive in all his runs this season.

My view of the Challow was that RDS wouldn't have got anywhere near FR on better ground.

So there is a choice and I think the market has their relative chances about right but I accept there's a danger I'm letting my ante-post bets colour my judgement. We'll see.
 
Galileo said:
Quel Esprit appears pretty strong in the market over the last couple of days.
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...Also watch out for Enterprise Park from Mullins. I suppose QE will go for the Neptune and EP for the AB?

I'm a supporter of Tell Massini in the AB, but Enterprise Park could be a worry.
 
SteveM said:
...Also watch out for Enterprise Park from Mullins. I suppose QE will go for the Neptune and EP for the AB?

I'm a supporter of Tell Massini in the AB, but Enterprise Park could be a worry.
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Indeed Steve I take it as a positive for both their chances that Mullins is happy to leave Quel Esprit at the shorter trip and that he seems pretty happy with his options for the Albert hurdle.

I remember when Enterprise Park won early in the season Mullins saying he was about as nice a horse as he had in his yard. Then he drifted like a barge at Limerick but won well enough.
 
gus said:
My view of the Challow was that RDS wouldn't have got anywhere near FR on better ground.
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That seems to be the generally held view and seems to explain their prices. But RDS coped fine with decent ground in the Triumph last year and was right there until between the last and second last where the speedier sorts left him trailing. This is not as good a race, it's over a more appropriate trip, he's a year older and he's improved. Any price in double figures is worth taking imo.
 
Supreme -

Any Given Day (IRE) 5.g
Arvika Ligeonniere (FR) 5.g
Bellvano (GER) 6.g
Blackstairmountain (IRE) 5.g
Chain of Command (IRE) 7.g
Cootehill (IRE) 6.g
Dan Breen (IRE) 5.g
Dinarius 5.g
Dream Esteem 5.m
Dunguib (IRE) 7.g
Far Away So Close (IRE) 5.g
Fiulin 5.h
Flat Out (FR) 5.g
General Miller 5.g
Get Me Out of Here (IRE) 6.g
Gus Macrae (IRE) 6.g
Hollins 6.g
Inventor (IRE) 5.g
Iolith (GER) 5.h
Menorah (IRE) 5.g
Mister Wall Street (FR) 5.g
My Shamwari (IRE) 6.g
Oh No Not Harry (FR) 5.g
Oscar Whisky (IRE) 5.g
Peddlers Cross (IRE) 5.g
Pepe Simo (IRE) 6.g
Puyol (IRE) 8.g
Rite of Passage 6.g
Some Present (IRE) 7.g
Some Slam (IRE) 5.g
Spring Jim 9.g
Takestan (IRE) 7.g
Vino Griego (FR) 5.g
Zafranagar (IRE) 5.g
 
Seems to be a lot of money coming for Quel Esprit. Now 6.6 on Betfair compared with 4.5 for Rite of Passage.

Mullins not a gamlbing stable?! :D
 
Neptune -
Arvika Ligeonniere (FR)
Baily Rock (IRE)
Beroni (IRE)
Chartreux (FR)
Consulate (IRE)
Enterprise Park (IRE)
Finian's Rainbow (IRE)
Fionnegas (IRE)
Fiulin (GB)
Flat Out (FR)
General Miller (GB)
Ghizao (GER)
Gus Macrae (IRE)
Hollo Ladies (IRE)
Manyriverstocross (IRE)
Mister Wall Street (FR)
Najaf (FR)Onajet (AUS)
Peddlers Cross (IRE)
Quantitativeeasing (IRE)
Quartano (GER)
Quel Esprit (FR)
Reve de Sivola (FR)
Rite of Passage (GB)
Sleepy Hollow (GB)
Some Present (IRE)
Summit Meeting (GB)
Swansbrook (IRE)
The Betchworth Kid (GB)
The Giant Bolster (GB)
The Knoxs (IRE)
Tilt (GB)
Vino Griego (FR)
Wishfull Thinking (GB)
 
For me, neither Get Me Out Of Here or Menorah are a million miles away on form. Both are ridden by jockeys with a damn site more experience of jumping hurdles at Cheltenham in big-fields than what O'Connell is, and Get Me Out Of Here in particular gets his rating from a race likely to be run in a similar fashion to tomorrow. EW with Paddy Power with the win side refunded if necessary looks a smart play on Get Me Out Of Here.
 
£1.9m matched on Betfair on the Supreme novices already, compared to under £600K on the Champion. Anyone know what the record for a single race is? I'm sure this won't be the biggest, but it will be interesting to see how close it comes. Opinion on Dunguib seems to vary at all rates from can't lose to can't win.
 
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