Novice Hurdlers 2015/16

they may well have been...but i feel they both stay at that level as nowt passed em

what did jock on 2nd do wrong?..i must have missed that..because without the joke last two jumps..TH would have won easy..must have lost 5 lengths+ with those efforts
 
The jockey on Open Eagle was too far back. Had to use a big percentage of whatever the horse had to get on terms, then hand nothing left at the finish.
 
but weren't they finishing from the back late on..maybe they went too hard..hence TH tatored late..TH certainly seemd to be going fast to me

looked like the jock on the 2nd did the right thing sitting back
 
Last edited:
didn't see the first circuit..will watch later

to me best horse won..and without those errors would have done so more comfy

those errors were dreadful stopping efforts
 
Euronymous said:
This whole time of year can get fucked. Suckered into backing Houblon Des Obeux yet again. Fuming.
Click to expand...

I'm a NH enthusiast make no mistake about that but this time of year doesn't interest me betting wise,in the slightest
I had a tickle on the sand and the football today,that's enough for me
Roll on the spring festivals and the flat.
 
Last edited:
Interesting little race. You could probably argue Open Eagle stayed at the same time as arguing a drop back to 2m2f or 2m3f on that ground would be enough.

He probably was back far enough but then again they were riding him to get that trip. I still think there's more speed than stamina about him. He couldn't get past a punch drunk horse in Thomas Hobson from 2 out but it was probably stretching him to very very last.

As an Altior fan it's pleasing to see him go so close in a graded race a tad out of his comfort zone.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
fonz said:
This time of year doesn't interest me betting wise,in the slightest
Click to expand...

I'm the same in that I'm keeping it low key, low stakes, maybe one/two bets a week - but almost each and every time they're going close and not going in. The Govaness, Westren Warrior and now Open Eagle. Frustrating.
 
Open Eagle went from 10 lengths behind TH turning in (having been 15+ behind two flights before) to four down two out, to one down at the last. He was then just stopping faster than TH. The third fourth and fifth were pretty much the same distance behind OE at the line as they were turning in. We know stayers don't run faster in the last two furlongs at the best of times so the chances are they were at best plugging on under pressure at their own pace so the front two must have been in reverse.

Having said all that, take the front two out and the result would make a lot of sense. I think it was a very good race and a big compliment to Altior (which is what I was hoping for).
 
Last edited:
Does it really "pay a big compliment to Altior", DO?

Open Eagle is beaten.....admittedly not by much, but he is still beaten. It's pretty-much a non-event in terms of Altior and his Festival chance/level of form, isn't it?
 
if you like horses..making others look good..check out the Triumph hurdle fav's last run..now those runners sibce..do make him look good:)

but ..such as Altior..i know he is good..measured against the clock..what others do over other trips don't bother me tbh

he will still lose to Min..and i love Altior to bits..made me some nice cash this winter..in fact..he is my fav NH hunt hoss at the moment..but even with my love for him..i know he won't be beat Min

the figures never lie..well most of the time:)
 
Grasshopper said:
Does it really "pay a big compliment to Altior", DO?

Open Eagle is beaten.....admittedly not by much, but he is still beaten. It's pretty-much a non-event in terms of Altior and his Festival chance/level of form, isn't it?
Click to expand...

I do think so.

Look at the nuts and bolts.

I'd felt OE's OR of 137 seriously under-rated him and therefore Altior. Despite not staying, he's given another 137 horse (Final Nudge) 3lbs and a beating of nearly 14 lengths.

The next two in front of Final Nudge didn't have ORs but one was backed into 6/4f so connections clearly thought he was a lot better than 137 and RPRs had him on 140. He's run that kind of differential pretty close (2¾ lengths) but they were another 5 lengths (4lbs?) behind the third who was 6 lengths (5lbs?) behind the second who was giving them 3lbs.

That suggests Open Eagle is about 152 (I had him on 151 beforehand). Altior put ten lengths between himself and Open Eagle in about a furlong at Kempton.

It will be interesting to see if the handicapper revises Altior's mark in the light of this result.

However, it's entirely possible he'll take a similar view as yourself and pretty much write the race off. Obviously since they were racing the other way over five furlongs further and probably in heavier ground, we're not really comparing apples with apples but I think today's was a very hot race. I'd love to be a fly on the wall of the Skelton office tonight.
 
Grasshopper said:
Does it really "pay a big compliment to Altior", DO?

Open Eagle is beaten.....admittedly not by much, but he is still beaten. It's pretty-much a non-event in terms of Altior and his Festival chance/level of form, isn't it?
Click to expand...


I suppose it's what you define as paying a compliment or franking form. One mans trash is another mans treasure. As a fella holding a quite decent antepost ew bet on Altior I'd prefer to see him finish as he did rather than finish the way the likes of Born Survivor did who was very well backed, 5/2 into 6/4, came with a big reputation & backed as tho they very much expected to collect.

It was a fairly hot G2 hurdle race & the first two have pulled well clear of third with OE stepping into unknown territory trip wise. I generally like to see some standard of dept to form once i've invested & already that easily surpasses anything form wise Min has beaten. Granted we know he has beaten nothing really anyway but I think one horse he beat on that 10 Dec race has gone on to win, and that was narrowly in a bumper. Douvan & Vautour before were beating much better horses by similar distances who had franked the form strongly before March.

That's not to say either one is better than the other because of previous form lines. We'll know who's best once they square up in March & only then.

Some obviously differ & go by the clock or ratings etc but I like my selections to have their form franked as much as possible. Today's G2 second was the strongest frank of form of to date. Altior stuffed Open Eagle by 13L eased down so unlike you I would concur that it does compliment Altior's form. It certainly doesn't diss it anyway.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Last edited:
Kauto Abu said:
I suppose it's what you define as paying a compliment or franking form. One mans trash is another mans treasure. As a fella holding a quite decent antepost ew bet on Altior I'd prefer to see him finish as he did rather than finish the way the likes of Born Survivor did who was very well backed, 5/2 into 6/4, came with a big reputation & backed as tho they very much expected to collect.

It was a fairly hot G2 hurdle race & the first two have pulled well clear of third with OE stepping into unknown territory trip wise. I generally like to see some standard of dept to form once i've invested & already that easily surpasses anything form wise Min has beaten. Granted we know he has beaten nothing really anyway but I think one horse he beat on that 10 Dec race has gone on to win, and that was narrowly in a bumper. Douvan & Vautour before were beating much better horses by similar distances who had franked the form strongly before March.

That's not to say either one is better than the other because of previous form lines. We'll know who's best once they square up in March & only then.

Some obviously differ & go by the clock or ratings etc but I like my selections to have their form franked as much as possible. Today's G2 second was the strongest frank of form of to date. Altior stuffed Open Eagle by 13L eased down so unlike you I would concur that it does compliment Altior's form. It certainly doesn't diss it anyway.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...


of course its always nice to have a good figure hoss franked..i'm loving that with triumph fav Ivan

the problem with todays race is..i don't really think..if you need that sort thing..that OE does really frank it..if you look where OE was today at the 2 mile point..he was being buried by the winner. ..probably similar to where he was behind Altior at 2 mile point at Kempton..so clearly..he isn't showing his best at 2 miles....you have to look where was today at 2 miles..if you want to use a franking method in a fair way. If..Altiors race had been over 2m4..its probably fair to say..OE would have finished closer to him than 13 lengths on todays evidence

i agree though..better OE doesn't bomb out if you like the franking stuff..but it was a completely different test today.
 
Last edited:
Fair point EC. That's often difficult to achieve tho as must will step up in trip after a defeat or two over the minimum distance. Like we probably wont see OE run over 2m again so you probably wont get to frank like on like form with those two again.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
EC1 said:
.if you look where OE was today at the 2 mile point..he was being buried by the winner. ..probably similar to where he was behind Altior at 2 mile point at Kempton..so clearly..he isn't showing his best at 2 miles....you have to look where was today at 2 miles..if you want to use a franking method in a fair way.
Click to expand...

Are you on drugs??

I'm not as sold on Altior as others are but how is that a fair method? Am I missing something here? Were there two prizes on offer in that race today? One for the leader at 2 miles and the other for the winner at the finish line (which is where the race finishes by the way).

Open Eagle was going over 2 miles for the first time on heavy ground and was being ridden as such. How far behind the winner he was at 2 miles has no relevance to anything.
 
Last edited:
Open Eagle has been beaten by a 137 horse who is probably Mullins' 5th or 6th choice for the Neptune. It's a massive leap of imagination to put him much above his (in my view) proper rating of about 140. Let's see what the handicapper does for Cheltenham.
 
Back
Top