Novice Hurdlers 2015/16

[archie]

Everyone agrees that Min isn't an attractive price but no-one wants to lay him at any higher so it's obviously the correct price.

 

[wilsonl]

Part of me wants to respond by saying that yes we can blame the bookies because there isn't anybody else to blame but the sad fact is if there weren't people queuing up to back him at that rate then the price would have to be pushed out.

and there's nothing stopping me from laying him at 5/2 on the machine if I wanted to

 

[JamesRB]

the stacking of success in this particularly race from the connections and their near total domination at least year's festival is why the bookies have kept min's odds relatively prohibitive

it shouldn't really surprise anyone

 

[Tanlic]

zarkandar did the same double in 2011

Nicky never trained him James and none of those mentioned could possibly be described as potential superstar......2nd and 3rd rated Seven barrows horses as I said. Une Artiste that has to be a joke ..that thing won at 40/1 and it was hardly a genius plan by Nicky to run him at Kempton. Soldatino was only having his 1st run and won the Trimph on his second.

The point I was making is it is totally out of Character for Nicky to run his best Supreme horses in the Dovecote but some people can't stand hearing the truth especially if their AP voucher is at risk.

Best laugh I have had today is reading how his stride is better suited to Cheltenham than Kempton.

He won the slowest race of the day at Cheltenham struggling to beat a horse who's victims have all been beaten out of sight since and never put a dent in the Supreme market.

He then goes to Kempton and runs a time only 2 seconds slower than Faugheen and wins by 14 lengths.

Yeah Cheltenham is definitely his preferred course

 

[Desert Orchid]

Best laugh I have had today is reading how his stride is better suited to Cheltenham than Kempton.

He won the slowest race of the day at Cheltenham struggling to beat a horse who's victims have all been beaten out of sight since and never put a dent in the Supreme market.

He then goes to Kempton and runs a time only 2 seconds slower than Faugheen and wins by 14 lengths.

Yeah Cheltenham is definitely his preferred course

Oh well, here we go again. I was wondering how long it would be before you labelled my opinion laughable.

Of course the Kempton form is better by far. I never suggested otherwise but Kempton is tight enough for him and I have no doubt a proper race at Cheltenham will suit him a lot better than the unsatisfactory event he won there before.

Still, that's the last I'll be offering my opinion.

 

[EC1]

Oh well, here we go again. I was wondering how long it would be before you labelled my opinion laughable.


Still, that's the last I'll be offering my opinion.

thats why i removed my earlier post DO..its not worth bothering..Tanlic regularly ridicules people's view who he doesn't like on here..but if it someone he don't like dissin he mentions them by name and arse creeps the difference of view into the post

the cliqueism on here destroys potential..some people want to dominate the forum..sh1t on certain posters views..he isn't alone

i know each and every one of them now..they are waste of energy..best use it to go and cook a meal or summat DO...use the energy on summat worthwhile

 

[Desert Orchid]

waste of energy..best use it to go and cook a meal or summat DO...use the energy on summat worthwhile

Will do. Sorting out stuff for the weekend is a much more worthwhile use of my time and energy. I'll stick to that. Cheers.

 

[EC1]

better than being bullied that is for sure..too much of it about.

 

[Tanlic]

How old are you two?

 

[EC1]

old enough to spot someone who posts in the way you do clearly

you might think you have soft targets..think again old lad

 

[Tanlic]

Lets look at what you got upset about EC. You are getting silly again just because I disagreed with what I thought was ill thought out thinking by yourself.

http://www.attheraces.com/form/horse/douvan/FR/2850941

http://www.attheraces.com/form/horse/min/FR/2842441/search/?mode=H&page=1&search=|min|


You claimed the times of each race made Min the better horse.

I pointed out that Min went off like a bat out of hell and made all whereas Douvan sat in 4th place half asleep for almost all of the race, going at the speed of the leaders not at his own pace but there's.

So how on earth you could come to the conclusion you did beats the hell out of me.....ffs get off your pedestal and admit when you are wrong instead of acting like a spoiled child.

 

[Tanlic]

By the way I actually though you were serious when you said you agreed it was a stupid post.......I should have known better than to assume you had changed

 

[Kauto Abu]

Nicky never trained him James and none of those mentioned could possibly be described as potential superstar......2nd and 3rd rated Seven barrows horses as I said. Une Artiste that has to be a joke ..that thing won at 40/1 and it was hardly a genius plan by Nicky to run him at Kempton. Soldatino was only having his 1st run and won the Trimph on his second.

The point I was making is it is totally out of Character for Nicky to run his best Supreme horses in the Dovecote but some people can't stand hearing the truth especially if their AP voucher is at risk.

Ah give it a rest will ya. You said, and I quote;

"If you can think of one horse that Nicky ran at Kempton on the last Saturday of February and went on to win at Cheltenham the same year you are a better man than me".

We found 3 who went to Kempton the last week of February & then went on to win at the festival. I mean you even found one yourself that went on to win the Supreme after the dovecote, that has to be the best laugh of the day to be fair.

You mentioned nothing about superstardom, having to be a novice hurdler or competing as stable 1st 3rd or 10th string. You just asked for just one horse.

I think certain people can't here just can't admit when they got it totally arse ways.




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[Tanlic]

I think me having the balls to post Flown up myself and admit I was wrong but I also said right from the start he normally doesn't send his best horses to that meeting.

"He sends 2nd and 3rd string to the meeting or horses he thinks might not be suited to Cheltenham"

Anyway can you answer a simple question with a logical answer? Do you think sending a young horse like Altior who he described as a big baby only months ago to contest a competitive hurdle race 2 weeks before the Supreme is a good idea?

My gut feeling is that Nicky is either admitting deafeat and thinks he's not that good and grabbing as much prize money as possible before the Supreme. With WPM's record that makes sense to me.

Alternatively he sends him to Kempton picks up the prize makes his excuses and pulls him out of the Supreme and freshens him up for Aintree

I just cant see him contesting all 3 races Kempton Aintree and Cheltenham taking him to 7 in one season when you consider stable stars like Sprinter Sacre, Simonsig, Peace and Co and friends, Binocular Spirit Son, Oscar Whiskey and My Tent or Yours not many of them were asked to race more than 5 times in their first season over jumps most common for a Henderson horse is a total of 5.

This fellow is heading for 7. Even as mature horses only Oscar Whiskey (CH) and MTOY (Supreme) exceed 5 when they ran 6 times but both were beaten when it mattered

The point is it is not normal practice for Nicky Henderson to run a first season novice or bumper horse 7 times but you seem to think it's nothing to worry about.

Good luck with that thought he'll be some horse if he can pull that off and perhaps you should be asking for a Champion Hurdle price for 2017 now!!!

 

[Kauto Abu]

I think me having the balls to post Flown up myself and admit I was wrong but I also said right from the start he normally doesn't send his best horses to that meeting.

"He sends 2nd and 3rd string to the meeting or horses he thinks might not be suited to Cheltenham"

Anyway can you answer a simple question with a logical answer? Do you think sending a young horse like Altior who he described as a big baby only months ago to contest a competitive hurdle race 2 weeks before the Supreme is a good idea?

I'll answer you that one if he goes to Kempton and indeed on to Cheltenham 2 weeks later, since he said that after his kempton win (after his St. Stephen's day win & long before Min bolted up for the second time) he also said this from last Saturday in his 'On the Road to Cheltenham Blog;

"Buveur D'air who won on his hurdling debut at Newbury, is in work again after a snotty nose and we’re just waiting to run him again. He could run in the Dovecote (a race we have won three times in 12 years, including with Flown who went onto win the Supreme hurdle in 1992). The plan is for Buveur D’Air to join Altior at Cheltenham in March"



So obviously nothing is set in stone yet. Buveur will obviously need another run having had the one race so perhaps he goes there, or Perhaps Altior goes there. If it's soft testing ground maybe neither of them go there.

Having done it with Flown before it's obviously no concern to Henderson himself which horse he takes. Min for all the world, pulling like he does and getting lit up, could potentially use another run to take the edge off him similar to Vautour & Champagne Fever taking in the Deloitte in the second week of February but it'll be nine and a half weeks without a run. Who are we to question Willie Mullins, the horse will be as fresh as mountain air but I'm sure he knows what he's doing. I'm sure whatever Mr. Henderson does, he knows likewise. He's not the leading festival trainer doing wrong by the horses.




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[EC1]

<b style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62); line-height: 14.5364px;">

Lets look at what you got upset about EC. You are getting silly again just because I disagreed with what I thought was ill thought out thinking by yourself.​

</b>No..i'd no issue with the point you made..its the ridiculing way you do it Tanlic. The point you made was fair comment. Same with how you responded to DO..the point you made to him was a fair one about Kempton..again its the way you have to do it.

I personally don't take the time to post up info that i don't see others offering..to be treated like an imbecile..just debate the issue without the need to ridicule. I might think lots i read is "a crock" in your words..but i try to put my replies back with good counter argument.

We all have differing views..but some on here regularly get the ridicule attitude from you..whilst you go out of your way to reply to others politely..in fact some of the stuff aimed at you over the last few months that hasn't been done in a decent way..you've ignored responding to..just because of who posted it...whereas the same comments if from DO or me would have got a tirade back from you.

 

[Maruco]

I think me having the balls to post Flown up myself and admit I was wrong but I also said right from the start he normally doesn't send his best horses to that meeting.

"He sends 2nd and 3rd string to the meeting or horses he thinks might not be suited to Cheltenham"

Anyway can you answer a simple question with a logical answer? Do you think sending a young horse like Altior who he described as a big baby only months ago to contest a competitive hurdle race 2 weeks before the Supreme is a good idea?

My gut feeling is that Nicky is either admitting deafeat and thinks he's not that good and grabbing as much prize money as possible before the Supreme. With WPM's record that makes sense to me.

Alternatively he sends him to Kempton picks up the prize makes his excuses and pulls him out of the Supreme and freshens him up for Aintree

I just cant see him contesting all 3 races Kempton Aintree and Cheltenham taking him to 7 in one season when you consider stable stars like Sprinter Sacre, Simonsig, Peace and Co and friends, Binocular Spirit Son, Oscar Whiskey and My Tent or Yours not many of them were asked to race more than 5 times in their first season over jumps most common for a Henderson horse is a total of 5.

This fellow is heading for 7. Even as mature horses only Oscar Whiskey (CH) and MTOY (Supreme) exceed 5 when they ran 6 times but both were beaten when it mattered

The point is it is not normal practice for Nicky Henderson to run a first season novice or bumper horse 7 times but you seem to think it's nothing to worry about.

Good luck with that thought he'll be some horse if he can pull that off and perhaps you should be asking for a Champion Hurdle price for 2017 now!!!

I have a different theory with Altior. Henderson did indeed describe him as big baby, and I suspect he's doing all he can to make sure he's a man before his big day. I also suspect that at the start of the season his immaturity left him with a lot of improvement, and perhaps he wasn't necessarily perceived as the number one at that stage, which has lead to them having him out earlier and with more runs before Christmas than they would usually plan for a Supreme/Festivals horse. But what he's done and how he's done it has changed their minds.

Also he had a very easy race first time up and it was nothing more than a stroll round, and would have been nothing more than an education, so in reality it wouldn't have left any kind of mark. The only race he's really been all out was the race at the Paddy Power meeting against Maputo. He showed huge improvement for it too. And the difference between Cheltenham and Kempton was simply that. Improvement. There is no way you could say he didn't act at Cheltenham that day given the way he stuck his head down and battled up the hill to win his race. If anything the opposite is true.

He's gone to the Supreme many times with highly fancied horses who have placed and not won in recent seasons, and I suspect he wants to make sure Altior is tough enough for the job. Is there a possibility he gets to the bottom of him, yes, but if he hasn't there won't be a better prepared horse in the race. And it's rare for him to get to the bottom of a horse so he clearly thinks it's better to get a race into Altior before the Festival and still leave sufficient time to freshen him up. This race does that, but the February race doesn't. I suspect if the ground is soft or heavy he'd skip it anyway and find something else before the end of January and not take the risk of running in February unless he absolutely has to. What he won't do is wait from December to March without a run.

He has Buveur D'air to fire at the race as well, and if he genuine believes that one has a better chance than Altior it'll be reflected in jockey bookings in March. As for Altior turning up in the Supreme you need your head testing to think he'll skip it. If he's fit and well he'll run. Lets face it how often does Nicky sidestep the Supreme when he's got a bullet to fire? Whether he goes to Aintree is a different matter. I doubt it personally with the two meetings being so close this year, and you'll more likely see him at Punchestown.

Will he win. Who knows. There could be 2 or 3 better than him on the day. That's the nature of the Supreme, but I reckon you've got your logic all wrong and not thought it all the way through Tanlic.

 

[Grasshopper]

Has there ever been a horse pass through Henderson's yard that he hasn't referred to as "a big baby" at some stage?

It's a meaningless platitude, and not something to account for when considering running-plans for his horses, imo.

 

[Maruco]

I can't argue with that Grassy, but watch his first race. He was as green as grass wandering around into his hurdles, so in this case it's true and definitely a consideration. As is the fact that he was totally unextended when winning it and it would have felt like a stroll round his paddock.

 

[Grasshopper]

His first hurdle race is hardly material in terms of the Supreme though, Paul, given he has won all three of his subsequent starts.

To be fair to Fist, it would be a little unusual for NJH's best novice-hurdler to be having his 6th run of the season at the Festival, but that's hardly a reason to dismiss him as a make-weight, or a 2nd/3rd-stringer. Altior is clearly already very smart, and regardless of whether he has a prep or not, he will go to Cheltenham with every chance. Immaturity and/or lack of experience won't be a factor - principally because that the same will apply to most everything in the race, to a greater or lesser degree.

 

[wilsonl]

Too much emphasis being placed on what trainers have done in past seasons with different horses.

Yes, there will always be a certain amount of repetition but horses are very different from each other and look at four of his best horses to have contested the Supreme in recent seasons; MTOY and Darlan both ran in (and should have won) the Betfair hurdle, having both raced 3 times previously (once at Cheltenham in Darlan's case - the only one of the four to have course previous) whereas Spirit Son and Sprinter Sacre had both only run a couple of times each at gaff tracks, albeit a popular Huntingdon novice and listed Exeter race among them.

but that said, anybody looking for a pattern might want to consider that MTOY went for both the Newbury and Aintree bumpers in the year prior to his novice hurdle season, a route which Buveur D'air has followed and for me, if this horse is over his snotty nose then he is the one Min will need to worry about from Seven Barrows.

 

[EC1]

Maruco

I don't really agree that Altior has made massive improvement..his ability was there on his win at Ascot on 31st October. That performance was so good i started a thread on OHR about it..this was my post.



The novice hurdle at Ascot today won by ALTIOR is of particular note.. Its very rare for this race to have a faster time than the William Hill handicap. If that does occur its usually that the handicap is slow early pace and then faster late pace than the novice race. That wasn't the case today.

[TABLE="class: cms_table"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]altior[/TD]
[TD]nabucco[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1 - 2 hur[/TD]
[TD]15.2[/TD]
[TD]15.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2 – 3 hur[/TD]
[TD]45.9[/TD]
[TD]46.7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3 – 4 hur[/TD]
[TD]28.1[/TD]
[TD]28.3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4 – 5 hur[/TD]
[TD]43.9[/TD]
[TD]45.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5 – 6 hur[/TD]
[TD]8.8[/TD]
[TD]8.9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6 – 7 hur[/TD]
[TD]40.0[/TD]
[TD]39.7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]7 – 8 hur[/TD]
[TD]12.8[/TD]
[TD]13.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]8h – fin[/TD]
[TD]15.0[/TD]
[TD]15.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Total[/TD]
[TD]209.6[/TD]
[TD]212.32[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]


Table shows both race timings taken from the first hurdle. Altior beats Nabucco in most of the splits. Importantly though ...even though he is in a faster run race he still beats Nabucco in the late splits.

Up to the 7th hurdle he runs it in 181.82 against Nabucco's 183.80. Usually with horses of similar ability you would now expect Nabucco to run faster from 7 hurdle to the finish..but Nabucco = 28.52 against Altior = 27.78.

To try and put a rating on Altior and the second horse Ch'Tibello isn't easy without the same historic data i have for the flat but lets start with...if both races had been run the same time to H7..then Altior would have beaten Nabucco by 0.74 seconds..or 4 lengths...and gave him 13lbs. So under the initial assumption of same time for both races to 7 hurdle......Altior is a 17lb superior horse to Nabucco who has run to probably a 135 today. Thats an impressive 152 for Altior.

But that isn't the full picture because Altior also ran 2 seconds faster early on..using more petrol in that section than Nabucco. Even if we only say that is only worth 5lbs..because early time is cheaper time..it still puts Altior into the mid late 150's.

The winner of this race is usually rated about 135/140..My Tent Or Yours won it one year for instance. It will be very interesting to see what these two novices get given as ratings..both look very smart horses...who might give us a decent bet in a nice handicap over the coming months.

152+ Altior
150+ Ch'Tibello


so he already showed his hand at how good he was then..if you looked into that Ascot performance it was evident at that stage..it was stunning performance for a novice at that point of the season......i'm still waiting for ChiTibello to win something decent though.

so we aren't looking at him finding masses of improvement since October 31...in fact..in my post in October..i said with the early energy used compared with Nabucco.....he could be a mid to late 150's horse just on that run.

At that time..i asked on here what people thought he would be rated..i think highest stab was 145...he was rated 143 Those figures showed he was +10/12 in front of what he would be rated.

It now requires him to move forward again..and by a good few lengths to scare Min

 

[Maruco]

His first hurdle race is hardly material in terms of the Supreme though, Paul, given he has won all three of his subsequent starts.

To be fair to Fist, it would be a little unusual for NJH's best novice-hurdler to be having his 6th run of the season at the Festival, but that's hardly a reason to dismiss him as a make-weight, or a 2nd/3rd-stringer. Altior is clearly already very smart, and regardless of whether he has a prep or not, he will go to Cheltenham with every chance. Immaturity and/or lack of experience won't be a factor - principally because that the same will apply to most everything in the race, to a greater or lesser degree.

Sound as though we agree then Grassy. I was just offering a valid reason why he'll possibly have one more run that wouldn't be typical of a Henderson Supreme horse in terms of runs in a season. We definitely agree that we think his first race won't have any baring on the Supreme at all and therefore the number of runs won't be a negative. That he has gained more experience can hardly be a disadvantage though as long as he's not over the top.

The race that I think will have the most impact on his chances is his race at Cheltenham where he was asked to find against a horse that would have been a credible Supreme candidate in his own right, That was the race where he proved he's not all speed but he's got the stomach for a fight. That battle up the hill must also surely stand him in good stead as does the racecourse experience. For anyone that backs him they know he won't be going backwards up the hill and he'll see it out.

For reasons I can't fathom, Tanlic uses this race as evidence that Cheltenham isn't Altior's course and that he doesn't act there. I can't have that in any way. In Henderson terms that was the race where he became a man and he's shown significant improvement for it since. Tanlic is further citing his assertion as a further reason why he won't run at Cheltenham and go to Aintree instead. But adds that if he does turn up he's 2nd/3rd string material. The reason being that Henderson is proposing to run him this month at Kempton rather than wait for February. The truth is as I've said before, the timing of that run is almost perfect and gives him sufficient break. He's not a once or twice run juvenile, in which case I'd possibly agree with him. Anyway, when he was figuring all that out I presume he did so after a seriously heavy night out on the Chang!

Anyway in conclusion, I'm not saying Altior will win the Supreme as I don't yet have a strong enough opinion of the race. But I am saying barring a setback he'll definitely run and most likely as the stable number 1. The only way I see that changing is if it came up soft. In that case I reckon Buveur D'air has the better chance, and there's a possibility that Tanlic gets lucky with his analysis and Henderson re-routes Altior to Aintree.

 

[Maruco]

Maruco

I don't really agree that Altior has made massive improvement..his ability was there on his win at Ascot on 31st October. That performance was so good i started a thread on OHR about it..this was my post.



The novice hurdle at Ascot today won by ALTIOR is of particular note.. Its very rare for this race to have a faster time than the William Hill handicap. If that does occur its usually that the handicap is slow early pace and then faster late pace than the novice race. That wasn't the case today.

[TABLE="class: cms_table"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]altior[/TD]
[TD]nabucco[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1 - 2 hur[/TD]
[TD]15.2[/TD]
[TD]15.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2 – 3 hur[/TD]
[TD]45.9[/TD]
[TD]46.7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3 – 4 hur[/TD]
[TD]28.1[/TD]
[TD]28.3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4 – 5 hur[/TD]
[TD]43.9[/TD]
[TD]45.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5 – 6 hur[/TD]
[TD]8.8[/TD]
[TD]8.9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6 – 7 hur[/TD]
[TD]40.0[/TD]
[TD]39.7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]7 – 8 hur[/TD]
[TD]12.8[/TD]
[TD]13.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]8h – fin[/TD]
[TD]15.0[/TD]
[TD]15.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Total[/TD]
[TD]209.6[/TD]
[TD]212.32[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]


Table shows both race timings taken from the first hurdle. Altior beats Nabucco in most of the splits. Importantly though ...even though he is in a faster run race he still beats Nabucco in the late splits.

Up to the 7th hurdle he runs it in 181.82 against Nabucco's 183.80. Usually with horses of similar ability you would now expect Nabucco to run faster from 7 hurdle to the finish..but Nabucco = 28.52 against Altior = 27.78.

To try and put a rating on Altior and the second horse Ch'Tibello isn't easy without the same historic data i have for the flat but lets start with...if both races had been run the same time to H7..then Altior would have beaten Nabucco by 0.74 seconds..or 4 lengths...and gave him 13lbs. So under the initial assumption of same time for both races to 7 hurdle......Altior is a 17lb superior horse to Nabucco who has run to probably a 135 today. Thats an impressive 152 for Altior.

But that isn't the full picture because Altior also ran 2 seconds faster early on..using more petrol in that section than Nabucco. Even if we only say that is only worth 5lbs..because early time is cheaper time..it still puts Altior into the mid late 150's.

The winner of this race is usually rated about 135/140..My Tent Or Yours won it one year for instance. It will be very interesting to see what these two novices get given as ratings..both look very smart horses...who might give us a decent bet in a nice handicap over the coming months.

152+ Altior
150+ Ch'Tibello


so he already showed his hand at how good he was then..if you looked into that Ascot performance it was evident at that stage..it was stunning performance for a novice at that point of the season......i'm still waiting for ChiTibello to win something decent though.

so we aren't looking at him finding masses of improvement since October 31...in fact..in my post in October..i said with the early energy used compared with Nabucco.....he could be a mid to late 150's horse just on that run.

At that time..i asked on here what people thought he would be rated..i think highest stab was 145...he was rated 143 Those figures showed he was +10/12 in front of what he would be rated.

It now requires him to move forward again..and by a good few lengths to scare Min

I agree. I had his card marked as one to watch from that race too. I'm careful of jumping on one and nailing my colours to the mast though because there's no reason why we shouldn't have other novices come through of similar ability. What I look for are novices in a season that hit the sweet spot of previous winners, and then analyse them in the context of the race in March. The truth is that largely the market does that for you but doing the work through the season makes it easier to form your opinion and selection(s). I've got Ch'Tibello marked for the same reasons by the way, and if there's any sign of Skelton's horses coming back to form and confirmation that he hasn't had a setback he's the one of two I have marked as value in the market.

How did you rate his race at Cheltenham by comparison? One thing I have in my mind is whether he is a slightly better horse right-handed?

 

[EC1]

cheltenham race was a nonsense pace wise though Maruco.

the RH view is interesting..he has certainly put up two best performances that way

the cheltenham race was hard to look good in though..it was just a 3 furlong sprint..with the loose horses getting in the way. He has been a real moneyspinner for me so i really like the horse the way you do when they win for you..pity about the similar size wager that went west on Chitibello..at some point..he will repay that

i still think Min is another level..potentially one of the best novices we have seen for a while...whereas i'd be looking at Altior as an average Supreme winning type

it looks these days though that the average winning Supreme type from the past 10 years..now just finishes 2nd or 3rd ..with the stuff Mullins is letting loose

bar has been raised by Mullins in the supreme to a level where you need a hoss 5/10 lb better than past average supreme winners just to get a look in