Novice Hurdlers 2015/16

That was my view too. The way the race panned out would have more likely suited Maputo. I'd backed Altior and I said to a friend, who I was sat next to in the stands as they were coming to the last, that the race had fallen into Maputo's hands. I was impressed how Altior dug in and won it against a 113 rated flat horse who consistently showed good pace to win his flat races, and had rated only marginally short of Altior at that same stage of the season. I saw the race as big positive, and took just as much out of it as his previous run at Ascot where he'd won in a quick time.

I agree with Min. The run the last day suggested there's more to come. He was impressive. Big engine and quick over his hurdles, and I also like the fact that he's already won over an extended two miles, but I'd really like to see him run on quicker ground. There's nothing in his action that suggests that he won't act on it, but his breeding suggests he'll be a better horse on softer ground. The problem is we're unlikely to see that, but on the plus side if the weather doesn't break at Cheltenham the Supreme is usually run on the slowest ground of the week.

The one I'd really have like to have seen in the race is Barters Hill. Although it's pretty certain that he'll go for one of the longer races, and Pauling has already committed that way.
 
Last edited:
Altiior definitely did well to hang on against Maputo but who knows how much that one's injury held him back if at all. I'd definitely agree the race was run to suit the latter


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Maruco said:
He has Buveur D'air to fire at the race as well, and if he genuine believes that one has a better chance than Altior it'll be reflected in jockey bookings in March./QUOTE]

I'd say Fehily will be on Buveur D'Air Maruco, he rides most of the owners horses so Nico will definitely be on Altior.

I kind of half know Noel Fehily to say hello to through a friend & I'm just setting off to Thurles now. If i get to see him leaving the parade ring I'll ask him what plans are with BD.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
 
Grasshopper said:
His first hurdle race is hardly material in terms of the Supreme though, Paul, given he has won all three of his subsequent starts.

To be fair to Fist, it would be a little unusual for NJH's best novice-hurdler to be having his 6th run of the season at the Festival, but that's hardly a reason to dismiss him as a make-weight, or a 2nd/3rd-stringer. Altior is clearly already very smart, and regardless of whether he has a prep or not, he will go to Cheltenham with every chance. Immaturity and/or lack of experience won't be a factor - principally because that the same will apply to most everything in the race, to a greater or lesser degree.
Click to expand...

You misunderstand me Altior is anything but a 2nd/3rd stinger and it's that that has me wondering wtf is Nicky playing at but as Kauto pointed out nothing is set in stone and he might not run him in the Dovecot.
 
Maruco said:
I have a different theory with Altior. Henderson did indeed describe him as big baby, and I suspect he's doing all he can to make sure he's a man before his big day. I also suspect that at the start of the season his immaturity left him with a lot of improvement, and perhaps he wasn't necessarily perceived as the number one at that stage, which has lead to them having him out earlier and with more runs before Christmas than they would usually plan for a Supreme/Festivals horse. But what he's done and how he's done it has changed their minds.

Also he had a very easy race first time up and it was nothing more than a stroll round, and would have been nothing more than an education, so in reality it wouldn't have left any kind of mark. The only race he's really been all out was the race at the Paddy Power meeting against Maputo. He showed huge improvement for it too. And the difference between Cheltenham and Kempton was simply that. Improvement. There is no way you could say he didn't act at Cheltenham that day given the way he stuck his head down and battled up the hill to win his race. If anything the opposite is true.

He's gone to the Supreme many times with highly fancied horses who have placed and not won in recent seasons, and I suspect he wants to make sure Altior is tough enough for the job. Is there a possibility he gets to the bottom of him, yes, but if he hasn't there won't be a better prepared horse in the race. And it's rare for him to get to the bottom of a horse so he clearly thinks it's better to get a race into Altior before the Festival and still leave sufficient time to freshen him up. This race does that, but the February race doesn't. I suspect if the ground is soft or heavy he'd skip it anyway and find something else before the end of January and not take the risk of running in February unless he absolutely has to. What he won't do is wait from December to March without a run.

He has Buveur D'air to fire at the race as well, and if he genuine believes that one has a better chance than Altior it'll be reflected in jockey bookings in March. As for Altior turning up in the Supreme you need your head testing to think he'll skip it. If he's fit and well he'll run. Lets face it how often does Nicky sidestep the Supreme when he's got a bullet to fire? Whether he goes to Aintree is a different matter. I doubt it personally with the two meetings being so close this year, and you'll more likely see him at Punchestown.

Will he win. Who knows. There could be 2 or 3 better than him on the day. That's the nature of the Supreme, but I reckon you've got your logic all wrong and not thought it all the way through Tanlic.
Click to expand...

Well I am not sure he is suited to the undulations of Cheltenham and beating Maputo just doesn't impress me that much.. The horse had 5 runs in 8 or 9 weeks and was typically well placed by Ferguson who's policy is keeping himself in the best company and his horses in the worst company. To be frank for all the talent that has gone through his hands he has a shocking record when it comes to big races......To date he's won nothing of note. So what Maputo done on the flat doesn't impress me and his hurdle form of four early season wins doesn't either

Cheltenham worries me for Altior Nicky saying he could win a flat, race is 100% a 2 miler, and the way he flew round Kempton looking so much at home.

ON Nico had to do a bit of posting on the home turn to get him into position and the commentator said he was under pressure right before Altoir threw 14 eggs in his face and streaked away.

If that was him under pressure I would love to see what he could do when he is not.
 
Kauto Abu said:
Maruco said:
He has Buveur D'air to fire at the race as well, and if he genuine believes that one has a better chance than Altior it'll be reflected in jockey bookings in March./QUOTE]

I'd say Fehily will be on Buveur D'Air Maruco, he rides most of the owners horses so Nico will definitely be on Altior.

I kind of half know Noel Fehily to say hello to through a friend & I'm just setting off to Thurles now. If i get to see him leaving the parade ring I'll ask him what plans are with BD.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...


Just home from Thurles, frozen solid at the moment. My friend had a nice winner there Coolnagorna Giggs who won at 13/2 for him so we made a tidy profit. The jockey was none other than Noel Fehily who had actually rang Tom Hogan looking for the ride on giggsy & had ridden for the owners a few times before. Everyone was happy leaving, even Noel after getting unseated from Bitofapuzzle in the previous race.

Anyway in the parade ring beforehand after the small chat the talk turned to Cheltenham. I thought that was as good an opportunity to ask him about Buveur D'air & when we might see him again. He said he had got a slight hold up & was almost ready to roll again. I asked was the dovecote a possibility & he said that was one strong possibility they were talking about along with another option 2-3 weeks away without actually saying where.

I finished with saying I'd ew antepost bets on both him and Altior at biggish prices & that BD looked very good on debut. He gave me a wink and just said 'oh he's a good one alright'.

Not sure it sheds anymore light on the matter other than as of today the dovecote is a strong possibility & Fehily seems to think he's well up to supreme standard.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
 
Last edited:
Buveur D'air would hand Altior his ar*e. The way he traveled all over and quickened away from Wait For Me at Newbury is the best performance from a visual perspective I've seen from a novice this season.

Not sure about this Min creature though.
 
not sure about race by race RPR's Wilson.....but he beat a 105/109 horse 34 lengths laughing at it..Ascot run was 152 on my figures

i know where you coming from..but there ain't many hosses handing Altior his arse on a plate

that Newbury run of BD is 12 lengths behind anything Altior has done on my calcs

so he will need to find 11+ to even be tickling Altiors arse imo
 
His bumper form behind Barters Hill & Bellshill looks outstanding tho to back up that first hurdle rout. That Aintree Bumper had 19 runners if memory serves me right & winners have come plentiful as far back as second or third last day. The Newbury race is working out very well too.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Last edited:
Kauto Abu said:
His bumper form behind Barters Hill & Bellshill looks outstanding tho to back up that first hurdle rout. That Aintree Bumper had 19 runners if memory serves me right & winners have come plentiful as far back as second or third last day. The Newbury race is working out very well too.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

That Newbury bumper ran 7 Feb '15 had Barters Hill first followed home by Buveur D'air & Altior. The fourth that day was the David Dennis horse Final Nudge who takes his chance in tomorrows neptune trial at Warwick at 3.00. He's been 2nd 3 times since including to the smart Unowhatimeanharry at Cheltenham last time and also won well twice for good measure. At 8/1 he looks over priced and should run a big race.

On top of that peace of form we'll also get to see the form of Altiors Kempton rout scrutinised with Open Eagle tho I wouldn't have imagined the extra 5f on heavy ground would suit.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Last edited:
Ya perhaps, he looked to be cruising at Kempton 'til 2 out when Altior joined him, as if he was all speed. Ruby didn't kill him anyway once Altior kicked. Reading RTE news there it seems Ruby suggested to step him up in trip to see if he'll handle it.

Looks a hot little race.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Last edited:
it will be interesting to see what he does KA..to be fair i didn't even watch him after Altior took off..i couldn't really believe his acceleration..when they turned in..i thought..oh no he's being asked..so just kept watching him tbh.
 
Ya, I was the same. It was only when I watched the replay you could see ruby didn't kill him, likewise Nico on Altior. He could afford to ease him down.

I'd imagine Thomas Hobson is stable no1 anyway. I'll be shouting home Final Nudge anyway. Those two bumpers Barters Hill won at Newbury & Aintree have worked out very well indeed.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
EC1 said:
..Open Eagle stays i think..thought it had won it
Click to expand...

Looked to me like the first two were stopping from two out. Need to check the replay. Looked to me like they went over ten clear by two out but were only a few lengths in front at the line despite a fair old hammering from the jockeys.
 
Back
Top