Novice Hurdlers 2015/16

A race over 2m5f in Heavy ground where Open Eagle doesn't even win, in no way boosts Altior's form, imo. Not a chance. As for the quality of today's event, the winner is only quoted in the Bartlett ante-post Festival market, which should tell you something too.

Altior has a clear form chance in the Supreme, but it takes the rosiest of spectacles (and straw-man theorising) to think that today's race franks his previous efforts. Any way I look at it, the Leamington is a complete irrelevance insofar as the Supreme is concerned.
 
Last edited:
Have we ever agreed on anything, GH?


I can see why you and others will see no relevance in any comparison between OE's two runs for reasons I touched on.

For me it simply can't be a negative the way the figures stacked up today. If they hadn't I would have started doubting the Kempton form. I might have considered the possibility that the tests were so different that there was no relevance.

It's all down to personal opinion, as KA says.

I went very big with my figure for Altior at Kempton for what were, to me, reasonably logical reasons, but I never discounted the possibility that I was wrong, especially given how different my mark was compared to Altior's new OR and his RPR on the day. For me, the fact that some lines, however tenuous, suggest that my mark at Kempton was right gives me cause for optimism.

I'm not convinced Altior can beat Min but as I said the other day I had Altior on a figure that would win most of the last 10 or 20 Supremes whereas Min had yet to put up a decent figure. One was 8/1 with the form in the book and the other 3/1 based on his reputation and the stable's. For me choosing which to back at that stage was a no-brainer.

My figures for today (yet to be finalised - just immediate post race musings) are pointing towards confirming the high figure I had for Altior at Kempton.

But that's purely one man's opinion.

Might as well leave it there.
 
TheBear said:
Are you on drugs??

I'm not as sold on Altior as others are but how is that a fair method? Am I missing something here? Were there two prizes on offer in that race today? One for the leader at 2 miles and the other for the winner at the finish line (which is where the race finishes by the way).

Open Eagle was going over 2 miles for the first time on heavy ground and was being ridden as such. How far behind the winner he was at 2 miles has no relevance to anything.
Click to expand...

no i packed in with the drugs just last year..45 years was enough for me..i found it was making me rude and ignorant when posting

i was only theorizing tbh..i wasn't putting forward a concrete to the nearest ity bitsy bit method...i personally don't worry about horses franking form..but his position at 2 miles and his position at the end tell you that Kempton was too short for him..IMO..so it has a bit of relevance to me as it tells me he gets going when further than 2 is put in front of him..you might see it different..thats fine. They didn't need to hold him up to get trip..as i said last night..he is bred for it..maybe he just couldn't go the pace the leader set..or jock thought it were too swift..who knows?
 
Last edited:
I didn't mean it flippantly, it's just that you usually post such sense so the only logical answer was that you must be under the influence of a strong intoxicant to propose such a theory.

I doubt Mullins has watched that and thought 'you know what, Thomas Hobson was murdering them all at the 2 mile point. Lets stick him in the Supreme!'
 
EC1 said:
They didn't need to hold him up to get trip..as i said last night..he is bred for it..maybe he just couldn't go the pace the leader set..or jock thought it were too swift..who knows?
Click to expand...

Combination of both.
 
Last edited:
the thing is with this franking when the franking is done over differing trips is..its not really that meaningful.

if someone ran 2nd to Usain Bolt at 100m..then ran 2nd at 400 metres..would we be saying?.."phew that franked that Bolt blokes form didn't it..eh?"...

why does Bolt need franking?..we already know he is world record holder..its not changed his position one iota. Same as if whoever runs 2nd to him comes last next time..it still don't make Bolts "form" sh1t

same with Altior..you don't run the splits he did at Kempton..then just because the hoss that finishes 2nd to him either wins or bombs out..dismiss it...thats seriious form at Kempton..it can't be downgraded..its not possible to run those times and not be very good
 
Last edited:
TheBear said:
I didn't mean it flippantly, it's just that you usually post such sense so the only logical answer was that you must be under the influence of a strong intoxicant to propose such a theory.

I doubt Mullins has watched that and thought 'you know what, Thomas Hobson was murdering them all at the 2 mile point. Lets stick him in the Supreme!'
Click to expand...

i think you taking what i said a bit literally tbh..it was said to make point that maybe OE didn't have enough trip at Kempton to show his best.
 
As i said earlier it's really a matter of opinion. Some fellas swear by the clock even tho conditions of certain races they're comparing them to might have changed. That wont stop them using their tried & trusted method in the future.

Whatever floats your boats & works for you.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
OK, well shall we just all agree that todays race does not help us work out the winner of the Supreme? As I said earlier though, I do believe it pays Up For Review a big compliment through Jetstream Jack.
 
I think the franking topic is one thats worth a thread of its own tbh. Its a very big topic because it has many facets to it. It can seem logical and make you feel better..but on other hand..that feeling better might be false for a number of reasons.

Each race is independent of others..so why is it logical to use a horse to decide the worth of both when numerous things can change the frenkers form from one race to next.

You could have a horse off colour when it runs again..not like ground..trip..etc..suggesting the first race was sh1t..when its exactly the opposite
 
TheBear said:
OK, well shall we just all agree that todays race does not help us work out the winner of the Supreme? As I said earlier though, I do believe it pays Up For Review a big compliment through Jetstream Jack.
Click to expand...

it wouldn't have changed my view of Altior one bit to be honest..if it had bolted up..or finished last today...its another day..another set of conditions...or hoss might have woke up this morning and thought..f*ck it..they can b0llocks today..i'm having one off
 
Last edited:
Tis why previous Festival form is more valuable than all others. Takes out some of the variables (course, ground, fitness, does everyone out there really want to win?).
 
just done figures for Warwick..these show that Thomas Hobsons race was actually an overly strongly run race. The % par i would imagine on a flat track like Warwick won't be far off 100% for an efficiently run race

Fin %
BOLD DUKE97.60
BIG JIM101.10
BLACK HERCULES110.30
FLINTHAM99.80
THOMAS HOBSON92.40
RUSSE BLANC104.61

<tbody>
</tbody>


above 100% = faster than par finish = early pace not as demanding
below 100% = slow finish..a testing early pace

The 3 races the most efficently run were..bold duke[slightly faster than ideal, front runner weakened, beaten 8L].....big jim + flintham.

Interestingly the long distance chase was a pretty fast finish suggesting that even though plenty of pace hosses were in there..it wasn't the slug fest you would have expected late on...mind you we lost a lot of them. Dromnea might have appreciated a sterner test late on..was catching them up back straight but the bit of petrol the leaders had got stopped him getting to them in the straight..can win one of these marathons before season is out.. given a stronger pace to slow em up a bit late on

Thomas Hobson's figure shows you they were finishing very slowly 92%...suggesting the early pace was strong..and that Open Eagle was best placed to win..he really should have passed the winner..who was "walking" home compared to other races.

Just as a comparison..Flintham..who ran over 3m2f..ran from 3 out in 64.7 seconds...Thomas Hobson in 69.4 seconds..thats a strong pace to slow him up like that..was a sitting duck for OE..which begs the question..why didn't he take it? looked to me like OE didn't put it all in..has a look across at the winner at second last..then sort of hangs strangely. Maybe he has his own ideas about the game..who knows

Black Hercules race wasn't a stern early test..he had saved a bit for the home straight..it would have taken a big effort for Definately Red to pass him with the petrol he had left..has run well Definately Red..worth noting..thats other thread int it
smile.png
 
Last edited:
EC1 said:
j
Thomas Hobson's figure shows you they were finishing very slowly 92%...suggesting the early pace was strong..and that Open Eagle was best placed to win..he really should have passed the winner..who was "walking" home compared to other races.
Click to expand...

TH's horrible hurdling had to contribute to his poor overall finishing time. And like I said earlier, Open Eagle should have been in the catbird seat that Born Survivor occupied, he was too far back.
 
it might have..but not to that degree Euro.....to finish from 3 out a full 5 seconds slower than a 138 hoss that ran over 5f further is very slow..i've seen the first circuit..and it looks a very decent pace to me...the figures back it up..

those errors haven't cost him 5 seconds imo

but..make your own mind..the figures are there to guide..however you want to interpret them..is up to individual

i know what i take from them..hopefully they will be of some use to someone..you never know

i know that watching the race a few times though..that OE doesn't look straightforward from 2 out..he is looking around..arsing about..might be ailing..or just attitude..don't know
 
Last edited:
Euronymous said:
TH's horrible hurdling had to contribute to his poor overall finishing time. And like I said earlier, Open Eagle should have been in the catbird seat that Born Survivor occupied, he was too far back.
Click to expand...

So I assume you have watched back then!

Yep made mistakes. You can argue he was slightly too far back. The fact remains though he got even further behind when he was being asked to get closer. The leader was still motionless at this point.
 
no it actually was a poor ride on the winner Tiggers...,,left himself a sitting duck..got away with it

here is another way to look at just how much petrol TH had left..which wasn't much.....even Russe Blanc ..who ran 3m5f..and is a slow horse camparitively......ran faster than TH from passing the 3rd last hurdle..and had two big fences to jump...Russe Blanc ran to finish in 64.5...compared with TH 69.4......Russe Blanc a 3m5f plodder beat him by 20 lengths from 3 out...do you think he judged the pace ok on Thomas with that sort of finish? I know what conclusion i draw.

TH went too hard looking at that....left himself exposed in the straight..was very lucky OE didn't want to pass him.

its easy to see how jocks get unfair stick..in this instance..the poor ride is deemed a good one..and the good ride deemed a bad one.

strange game really this one int it?:)
 
Last edited:
I can't be having that, it was a perfect ride. He just jumped poorly towards the end of the race because he's an ex flat ponce who got tired.
 
EC1 said:
Thomas Hobson's figure shows you they were finishing very slowly 92%...suggesting the early pace was strong..and that Open Eagle was best placed to win..he really should have passed the winner..who was "walking" home compared to other races.
Click to expand...

Cheers, EC1. This backs up my immediate post-race thoughts earlier in the thread.
 
Euronymous said:
I can't be having that, it was a perfect ride. He just jumped poorly towards the end of the race because he's an ex flat ponce who got tired.
Click to expand...

20 lengths slower than a 3m 5f plodder...why would he get that tired do you think though?..its early exertions that tire horses out to that degree..thats pedestrian Euro..only stiff early or mid fractions eat a horse's energy like that

they are both ex flat ponces anyway:)
 
Last edited:
Kauto Abu said:
Poor ride if he lost surely? He didn't tho. Any winning ride is a good ride


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

in the black and white world of the punter you are probably right..yes well done for winning..but had he had a horse of similar ability in the race..sat 10 lengths off him..instead of one that was more interested in looking across and hanging...he would have lost by 5 or 6 lengths..so yes..he is the winner..today..but keep riding horses inefficiently like today on a regular basis will see you beat most times.
 
Last edited:
Back
Top