Novice Hurdlers 2015/16

Grasshopper said:
I find it staggering that he would put-up a second-season novice without a hurdles win to his name, for the Supreme.

Segal's ante-post tips this season smell strongly of him not really being arsed with any of it.
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You wanted something less original and left field and ya still moaning :ninja:
 
OK, Frankel.....to try and explain myself a bit.

Supasundae cuffed Silver Concorde (who was fit from 2 Flat runs) at Leopardstown over Xmas, and at least has winning hurdles form, and decent track form (having only been beaten 7L in the Champion Bumper last season). He makes massively more appeal than SC does, and at 20/1, would have been a sensible each-way alternative to the shorties - especially given SC looks like he needs the Neptune trip, before he will ever get his head in front in a hurdle race.

Silver Concorde is now the same price in places as Supsundae - despite the fact he has 13L to make-up on Leopardstown running, which is a bleedin' nonsense.......though it's also worth noting that two books have actually pushed SC out in the betting, since this was announced. Maybe they also think that Segal is just pulling them out of a hat this season?
 
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Kauto Abu said:
Moon racer looking like he might make his hurdling debut in the supreme!!


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What a story that would be....

(adopts agitated and slightly manic Keeganesque demeanour) "I would love it, just love it if that horse rocked up in March and gave the one they call Min a right, royal paddling...."

Whether I'd be prepared to part with any hard-earned to give this fantasy an even spicier edge is another matter of course.
 
Grasshopper said:
OK, Frankel.....to try and explain myself a bit.

Supasundae cuffed Silver Concorde (who was fit from 2 Flat runs) at Leopardstown over Xmas, and at least has winning hurdles form, and decent track form (having only been beaten 7L in the Champion Bumper last season). He makes massively more appeal than SC does, and at 20/1, would have been a sensible each-way alternative to the shorties - especially given SC looks like he needs the Neptune trip, before he will ever get his head in front in a hurdle race.

Silver Concorde is now the same price in places as Supsundae - despite the fact he has 13L to make-up on Leopardstown running, which is a bleedin' nonsense.......though it's also worth noting that two books have actually pushed SC out in the betting, since this was announced. Maybe they also think that Segal is just pulling them out of a hat this season?
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I've not read his reasoning about his selection. But if he had stuck up your selection meaning you agree with him, then how left field is that.
Look, he's clearly had a gander in here and thought I'll give you ruddy left field.

Then again, maybe he did think f**k it and pulled it out of hat, as he'll have his house on the winner.
 
Silver Concorde is a much better horse on decent ground though Grass so I'd completely ignore that Leopardstown race.

The days of quick ground at the festival are a thing of the past though and it could be bad this year if this rain continues for another few weeks - regardless of the track's famed ability to dry out. Heavy forecast for this weekend again.
 
He has winning Bumper (and Flat) form on softer, Lee, but the ground is basically immaterial, imo.

He is a flat-foot stayer that will get left behind in a Supreme Novices, no matter what the ground is like.
 
But by far his best 3 pieces of form have Good in the description and Weld repeats that he loves Good to Yielding ground (which he may get).

Though I agree he won't be winning or probably even placing but at least in his case you'd be able to look back afterwards and see why.
 
I haven't read / don't read the Pricewise stuff (as it doesn't appear in the online paper and I seldom go to the bookies) but I reckon the selection of Silver Concorde is more a question of following the trainer than the form.

At these big festivals, Weld only sends them if he genuinely believes they can win. I don't know his strike rate but I imagine it is either very high or the horses outrun their odds by some way.
 
Correct, granger.

Any runner DK Weld has at Cheltenham is backed like it's Galway in the height of summer, and they almost always tank badly. SC is the exception rather than the rule, and even he was the unconsidered second-string the day he won.
 
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You sure about that, Granger?

2-12 in the last five seasons is a good return from an average of just over two runners per year. He clearly doesn't send them over for a gallop.

Wasn't Windsor Park his only runner last season?
 
Limini & Myska (top two in betting for new mares novice hurdle) are among the entries for a G3 mares novice hurdle at the weekend
 
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Bellshill confirmed target is Neptune and Pricewise tips up Shantou Village for same race.

Would prefer to see SV go Bartlett myself.
 
Buveur D'air declared for Huntington tomorrow. He'll be giving 7lbs to the field & will be taking on at least one decent animal in Ten Sixty who has decent bumper form. Just touched off by Premier Bond in his bumper before placing 5th in a hot little race on hurdling debut behind Champers on Ice & Minella Awards over 2m4f.




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EC1 said:
just backed bun doran..peed in
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The third in that November race at Newbury behind Buveur D'air & Wait for Me was Big Chief Benny. He finished well ahead of Bun Doran who skipped in last week. He ran into Charmix next time out & that one is 3rd fav for the graded neptune trial at Cheltenham this saturday.

Big Chief Benny runs in the 3.40 @ Doncaster tomorrow & looks like he could well be hard to beat at 7/2.


At Huntington I've done the Buveur D'air Ten Sixty straight forecast at 10/3. A return to 2mile should suit Ten Sixty having pushed Premier Bond close in a bumper & he's gone on to better things since.


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that race has a couple of interesting ones KA..remember See The World when it threw its bumper away turning in,,but then made the lost ground up and won?..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rUx1CPFglDA


he could be anything..he was 2nd fav in that Charmix race in Nov.....E Lavelle said before that race.. 'he doesn't have much knee action and better ground will suit him"

..so it was no surprise he bombed really

i've got a not bad figure for Royal Milans run behind wade harper as well

looks a tough race to me KA..may give it a miss..good luck with BCB
 
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Ya theres a few decent sorts in it. Royal Milan & behind the wire look interesting too but it's just the way Bun Doran and a few others further back have won their races having being trounced in that Newbury Race makes me feel like it was a serious novice hurdle.

Big Chief Benny ran into Charmix next time but these boys tomorrow don't look like a Charmix. It's a worry that there's 22 runners, unusual in an English novice hurdle but hopefully Hutchinson keeps him handy & better ground brings an improvement. Alan King seems to think it will.


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