Novice Hurdlers 2015/16

Grasshopper said:
Vautour front-ran in the Supreme and never saw another horse in the race, KA - I am wholly unconcerned.

I don't think Min was 'lit-up' last time anyway. I just think he displays great enthusiasm for his job, and his jumping puts distance between himself and his opponents, making it look like he is running away with himself.
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Agreed with Vautour grass who indeed I was on & likewise Douvan for his supreme. Disagree re him not being lit up tho, passing the stands after 2 or 3 hurdles something got to him & Ruby just couldn't hold him & said as much after. He was gone, raced very keenly. What he did show was great resolve to quicken again from 2 out. He'll have to front run in the Supreme I'd imagine, Ruby wont be able to hold him.

That, as I said, along with small things like Ricci's comments about him not being at the same level as Vautour & Douvan at this stage of his career just put a niggling doubt in my mind early doors & for that reason this year for a change I decided to take on the Mullins supreme hot pot. There looks to be a better quality of Henderson horse tackling them this year too.


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In suppose that's fair enough, KA........he definitely did want to get on with it last time.

Not being same level as Vautour/Douvan isn't really a surprise given what that pair have achieved. It could still be good enough to win a Supreme Novices though! :)
 
Pretty much my thoughts exactly Kauto and I'm on the same Hendo horse too.

That said I have had a couple of savers on Min purely for the fact that I'd hate to be stood there while everybody celebrates another Mullins demolition job and not be on at all.
 
I've crunched a few numbers for the Supreme.

Altior still emerges miles clear of this field to the point where I'd reckon even money was a value bet. Henderson will probably have improved him further with the race in mind and I genuinely fancy him to be better suited to Cheltenham than Kempton.

Am I right in thinking Long Dog doesn't go for the race? It looks like he has the second-highest figure although it also looks like they're rethinking the 158 he was allotted a couple of runs back. That appeared to add up and it looks like they might letting one unimpressive subsequent win dictate his new mark.

Buveur D'Air has the same OR as Altior but I'm donald-ducked if I can see why. Sure the horse he beat two runs ago hacked up twice since but those races were very small beer and the winner was very long oddds-on.

Ball D'Arc is touted as having franked Min's form but even with the new form under his belt Ball D'Arc's new OR of 135 leaves Min on about 150 plus the ease of victory. In fact, Ball D'Arc only went up to 131 for that race and next time, in receipt of weight from a horse rated a pound below him, he didn't win by much although not too hard pressed to do so. This Min may well be the greatest thing since sliced bread but no amount of number crunching on my part can get him near Altior.

I'd love to know the plan(s) for Bachasson, another Mullins entry. He went up to an OR of 154 - the same as both Altior and Buveur D'Air - for running Long Dog (158) to a neck, after which Willie Mullins strongly hinted at Bachasson's being the better. Those figures might be a tad high as they've since been revised downwards but what if they were right? And if they are wrong are they likely to be wrong by an awful lot? Anyway, I'm prepared to pay to find out so I hoovered up the small amount on offer on the exchange with a view possibly to laying it off at less than half the price in due course. Without info from within the stable it's all guesswork.

But if my figure for Altior is right - and I think it is - he's as good as past the post.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've crunched a few numbers for the Supreme.

Altior still emerges miles clear of this field to the point where I'd reckon even money was a value bet. Henderson will probably have improved him further with the race in mind and I genuinely fancy him to be better suited to Cheltenham than Kempton.

Am I right in thinking Long Dog doesn't go for the race? It looks like he has the second-highest figure although it also looks like they're rethinking the 158 he was allotted a couple of runs back. That appeared to add up and it looks like they might letting one unimpressive subsequent win dictate his new mark.

Buveur D'Air has the same OR as Altior but I'm donald-ducked if I can see why. Sure the horse he beat two runs ago hacked up twice since but those races were very small beer and the winner was very long oddds-on.

Ball D'Arc is touted as having franked Min's form but even with the new form under his belt Ball D'Arc's new OR of 135 leaves Min on about 150 plus the ease of victory. In fact, Ball D'Arc only went up to 131 for that race and next time, in receipt of weight from a horse rated a pound below him, he didn't win by much although not too hard pressed to do so. This Min may well be the greatest thing since sliced bread but no amount of number crunching on my part can get him near Altior.

I'd love to know the plan(s) for Bachasson, another Mullins entry. He went up to an OR of 154 - the same as both Altior and Buveur D'Air - for running Long Dog (158) to a neck, after which Willie Mullins strongly hinted at Bachasson's being the better. Those figures might be a tad high as they've since been revised downwards but what if they were right? And if they are wrong are they likely to be wrong by an awful lot? Anyway, I'm prepared to pay to find out so I hoovered up the small amount on offer on the exchange with a view possibly to laying it off at less than half the price in due course. Without info from within the stable it's all guesswork.

But if my figure for Altior is right - and I think it is - he's as good as past the post.
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Including Min?? I haven't read back through the thread, sorry
 
Desert Orchid said:
Buveur D'Air has the same OR as Altior but I'm donald-ducked if I can see why. Sure the horse he beat two runs ago hacked up twice since but those races were very small beer and the winner was very long oddds-on.
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Big Chief Benny is rated in the early 130s, justifiably looking at his run behind Yala Enki on Saturday.
 
i don't rely on OR's for novice hurdlers DO..or what horses do after a performance...same way as i don't for maidens on the flat. I work from a base of older horse comparisons and they then have a life of their own from the start of the season...i still tie them in..but if a novice puts in a big figure..i run with it.

Thats why at start of season..the official handicapper and people who i asked on here to put a rating on Altior after it won at Ascot in October..came up with about a 144..my rating after that race..without needing it franking..was 152. So even in October...the OR's were wrong to that degree..just on one horse.

But if you like franking..to say balldarc hasn't franked Min...is way off..and yet you thought Altior was franked when Open Eagle ran 2nd at much further in a similar grade race to what Ball D'arc ate on Sunday..that seems a little inconsistent..do you believe Ball D'arc is only a 136 horse?

Ball D'arc on my calcs earned a 130 when it won at Limerick 28 dec...148 behind Min..then a 146 31 January...and a 148 yesterday.

Those figures are very consistent level and he is a very decent tool...i don't care much what horses behind do..but in this case the Min/BallD'arc franking line is absoultely rock solid.

To me the whole idea of doing ratings is that when i see a solid performance..i can back others from that race as i know they are of a certain level at that time..the idea of rating a race and then watching others behind win or lose over next few months..would be pointless to me..i want to be on those hosses behind that have also put good figures up...next time they run.,,not 3 months down the line when they have gone on to win..and i ain't backed em as i'm waiting for conformation that i was right to start with.

Same with such as the triumph hoss Ivan..that race was was top notch at xmas..i backed loads from that race because i knew the rating each had...it makes no difference to me that hoss dipped other day..that original race was top notch. Just waiting to see it confirmed afterwards would have cost me numerous winning bets

If you only think balldarc is a 136 hoss..i am a bit amazed tbh..its a clear mid 140's hoss imo..probably higher..and it hasn't improved since first win..it was what it is now when Min slaughtered it..its been the same level for last 3 runs on my calcs

Its all about opinions..wouldn't be worth doing ratings if they all come up with same conclusions..whilst mine give me some good bets..i'm happy..as i'm sure you are with yours in same way
 
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Because we had Myska in it, I'm genuinely interested in why you rate Ball D'Arc's run on January 31st as 146, EC.
 
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EC1 said:
But if you like franking..to say balldarc hasn't franked Min...is way off..and yet you thought Altior was franked when Open Eagle ran 2nd at much further in a similar grade race to what Ball D'arc ate on Sunday..that seems a little inconsistent..do you believe Ball D'arc is only a 136 horse?
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That race yesterday looked very hard work, I think the better horses in it just didn't like the ground.
 
archie said:
I'm genuinely interested in why you rate Ball D'Arc's run on January 31st as 146, EC.
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i'm not going to put my exact methods up Archie..i put enough stuff up on here without revealing what appears to me to be an edge i have..whilst others rate balldarc 136..i may have an edge if mine are correct on rating him 146..same as with Altior earlier..i had him 8 higher than everyone else..paid me back in spades. I did share that one..but at the time you say it folk think you are daft in putting that figure on a horse that early or just ignore it.

they only my opinions..others have other opinions..i have to hope mine are right in the long run
 
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Euronymous said:
That race yesterday looked very hard work, I think the better horses in it just didn't like the ground.
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which is why i don't rely on other horses in a race to get my ratings...you for instance would downgrade the race due to the above..imo it was a decent race. Its better for me that people think its a below par effort when i think its a good one..no point bothering really otherwise. Generally in this game..the only way you get an edge is for others to undervalue something that you yourself value..its automatic value in future if you are correct then.
 
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Obviously it's all to do with personal interpretation of the facts as laid out before us.

EC1 said:
i don't rely on OR's for novice hurdlers DO..or what horses do after a performance...same way as i don't for maidens on the flat. I work from a base of older horse comparisons and they then have a life of their own from the start of the season...i still tie them in..but if a novice puts in a big figure..i run with it.

Thats why at start of season..the official handicapper and people who i asked on here to put a rating on Altior after it won at Ascot in October..came up with about a 144..my rating after that race..without needing it franking..was 152. So even in October...the OR's were wrong to that degree..just on one horse.
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In that case, I take it you were all over Ch'tibello like the proverbial next time when off 137 - you must have had it 10lbs well in - it was beaten 4 lengths and five lengths by Sternrubin and John Constable? Wouldn't that have been enough to prompt you to go back and check it out again? I know it prompted me to do so and I concluded it had run its race but Sternrubin got away that day and John Constable struck me as the one to take out of it.


EC1 said:
But if you like franking..to say balldarc hasn't franked Min...is way off..and yet you thought Altior was franked when Open Eagle ran 2nd at much further in a similar grade race to what Ball D'arc ate on Sunday..that seems a little inconsistent..do you believe Ball D'arc is only a 136 horse?

Ball D'arc on my calcs earned a 130 when it won at Limerick 28 dec...148 behind Min..then a 146 31 January...and a 148 yesterday.

Those figures are very consistent level and he is a very decent tool...i don't care much what horses behind do..but in this case the Min/BallD'arc franking line is absoultely rock solid.
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You're obviously totally convinced by your own figures for Ball D'Arc but the fact remains that after being beaten by Min, Ball D'Arc emerged with an OR of just 131, which went up to 135 after he won next time. Being a novice he's entitled to improve that much from race to race. But even taking that higher new OR, it only puts Min on 145 plus whatever he had in reserve. Allow for Irish ORs being on average 6lbs below UK ORs and Min is still only getting into the low 150s. And that's crediting BDA with a rating of 141 compared to his OR of 131. As for yesterday's form, it suggests he's improved just 6lbs since December on lines with Moon Over Germany.

Do you really want to base Min on lines with Ball D'Arc?



EC1 said:
But if you like franking..to say balldarc hasn't franked Min...is way off..and yet you thought Altior was franked when Open Eagle ran 2nd at much further in a similar grade race to what Ball D'arc ate on Sunday..that seems a little inconsistent..
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Yes but it wasn't because Open Eagle came out and ran well next time over further. You have my file from that day. I said I felt Open Eagle had an outstanding chance in the longer race based on the run behind Altior but reckoned Thomas Hobson was probably the stable's no1 for the race, which turned out to be the case. But go back to that previous race. Not only did Open Eagle (btn 13 lengths) run well next time (and won again the other day), but the fifth Meet The Legend, beaten more than 21 lengths, won next time out, beating a 135 rated odds-on Nicholls horse (the pair 8 clear of a Henderson horse), and the sixth, beaten over 27 lengths in receipt of 8lbs, won by 15 lengths next time, earning an RPR of 126. The 35lbs+ beating Altior gave him puts him into the 160s with the prospect of more to come. On franking lines, Min is just getting into the 150s.

We agree this is subjective and for me it's this phenomenon of different people interpreting the same information in different ways that makes this mental exercise so fascinating. We both have an edge. That's why I'm always tempted to go in double strength when our findings coincide.
 
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Euronymous said:
It's not much of an angle considering Min's price though.
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are you serious?:D..i rate hunderds of races..i personally don't care whether Min wins the Supreme or not..i'm not looking for an edge on Min alone..i get an edge on every race i think is decent...you are having me on surely

you don't think having my own view on every race is much of an angle?

you judge someones methods on one hoss??...i've backed hundreds of winners on the AW..using my methods..that others undervalue...i've put enough on here through the years..i'd start reading the what you backing thread...where do you think they come from?
 
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DO..yes i did back Chi Tibello...and no it didn't encourage to rethink..why would it?..horses aren't machines..its not run since..so there is probably an issue with it..its still on my to follows.

one of the main issues with this game is recency bias...punters are put off way to easily once a horse runs below par..oh thats that bubble burss..it makes me laugh a bit really..they aren't machines.

take Ivan for instance..we don't know why he lost last time..but the previous form was solid..and profitable..i wouldn't alter my view of him..just coz he lost..thats just daft imo
 
Euronymous said:
I'm not judging your methods, I just don't see what happened yesterday as having any impact on the Supreme picture.
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it didn't for me..i'm just playing the discussion game in franking terms....but i can absolutely guarantee you that if balldarc had lost every race since behind MIn..it would be..that form is ****..Min shouldn't be that short etc. so it may or may not have an impact..but in franking thinking terms..its done Min no harm has it?
 
EC1 said:
one of the main issues with this game is recency bias...punters are put off way to easily once a horse runs below par..oh thats that bubble burss..it makes me laugh a bit really..they aren't machines.
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Something very much along these lines occurred to me as I trawled through some figures this morning.

It can take handicappers several runs to drop a pound or two yet Bellshill was dropped 4lbs for not winning one race, Nicholls Canyon something like 8lbs, Arctic Fire 5lbs and Camping Ground 3lbs. All because of below-par recent form.
 
Euro

to me..Min isn't a horse i'm looking to make money off..he has just impressed me very much..i've been happy to back hosses behind him if sensible prices..well balldaerc..still waiting for tother main one to run. I get loads of hosses that show me they have an advantage from day to day

my idea of fun isn't backing a hoss at that price in a supreme..a race that owt can happen in..a hoss drops in front of you etc..Ruby come off at last:D etc..he is just one of the most exceptional novices i've come across..so its just excitement of seeing a good hoss in his case..bread and butter for me is daliy races.

If Min wins Supreme i'll stick me little chest out to mesen..if he don't..then he don't. I'm not like you lads..i don't have me balls on cheltenham races..they watchers for me with a few quid on..day to day is where i want coin from
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Something very much along these lines occurred to me as I trawled through some figures this morning.

It can take handicappers several runs to drop a pound or two yet Bellshill was dropped 4lbs for not winning one race, Nicholls Canyon something like 8lbs, Arctic Fire 5lbs and Camping Ground 3lbs. All because of below-par recent form.
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and in punters minds..you can multiply those figures by even more. I think once a horse puts in a stinker..it completely puts an avergae punter off for a good while.

recency bias is an interesting area in racing..it only takes one bad run to wipe out 5 good uns in the mind. The first time i ever really noticed it was with Soba..she won about 5 races in that first good year and was ante post fav for stewards cup when her form was 11111 or whatever it was..but then she ran unplaced..so from 11111 she went to 111110..went out in betting....she won on the day at 18/1

its a classic example of how easy punters forget..she was the same horse as when she won those earlier races..won gosforth park sprint in one of em..but that blob in front of her name quadrupled her price on the day
 
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EC1 said:
Euro

If Min wins Supreme i'll stick me little chest out to mesen..if he don't..then he don't. I'm not like you lads..i don't have me balls on cheltenham races..they watchers for me with a few quid on..day to day is where i want coin from
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Fair does, I've been impressed with Min also. The Supreme is never a race to get too balls deep in for me, I'll have a normal sized bet on Altior and B'DA will be one of my each way double horses.
 
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