SKY BET SUPREME NOVICES´ HURDLE (Grade 1) (CLASS 1) (4yo+):
DISTANCE: 2m87y Old:
The opening race of the Cheltenham Festival sees the first of the Willie Mullins 'big guns' heading the market; Min is a current best priced 7/4 and as low as 5/4 with a few layers. He was beaten in his two starts in his native France but his obvious talent has been unleashed by his current handler and he has won both starts in Ireland with consummate ease. It's difficult to gauge just what he achieved but the second of those victories came in a Grade Two and the well beaten third, Ball D'Arc, followed up in a Listed Novice race at Punchestown and a Grade Two at Naas. Min is a slick jumper, and his best work at home is said to be done on better ground, so if there are drying conditions they are unlikely to inconvenience him. The yard have won the last three renewals of this race with Vautour (2014) and Douvan (2015) achieving it without coming under much pressure. Min is a keen going sort but he looks to have a serious engine and taking time to settle didn't harm Douvan's chances when he took this race last season. Educating a horse and teaching them how to 'race/battle' used to be an advantage in these Championship races but horses from this yard are re-writing the rules. Given the events of the past two seasons it wouldn't be a surprise to see Min stride up the hill in splendid isolation but it's arguable whether his form so far is worthy of such a short price. His odds mean there are some very good horses in opposition at tempting prices and the one that appeals most at this stage is Tombstone.
He holds entries for both the Supreme Novices and the Neptune Novices (21 furlongs) but, having raced over 16-18 furlongs in his four starts over hurdles to date, it's the Supreme which looks to be the way that connections are leaning. Tombstone's owners have A Toi Phil (Willie Mullins) also entered in the same two races and he has run over 20 furlongs in two of his three races over hurdles so he seems to be the logical choice for the longer event. Tombstone goes to Cheltenham having won his second start over hurdles but being beaten into second in his last two outings. That is not the typical profile of a possible winner of the Grade One opener but it doesn't tell the whole story. His defeat on his penultimate start came at the hands of Long Dog (Willie Mullins) when he was beaten three quarters of a length in a Grade One over 16 furlongs at Leopardstown. Long Dog had the advantage of six previous starts over hurdles and it showed as Tombstone ran a bit too freely and lacked the fluency of the winner. Tombstone also found himself short of room entering the straight, but for which he would've arguably beaten the winner; looking the better horse and long term prospect in the process. His defeat last time out came over 18 furlongs at the same track and it was a performance that raised question marks over his resolution and ability to win at Grade One level. That could be an unfair analysis. They began racing a fair way from home in very deep ground, and Tombstone did come under pressure earlier than normal, but he responded to get to the front over the final hurdle before giving way to a horse who looked a stronger stayer. He travelled well for much of the race and he could be a whole different proposition dropped back to two miles on better ground.
Tombstone has plenty of soft/heavy ground influences on both sides of his breeding but his Dam was a winner on fast ground and his GrandDam was closely related to a four time winner on faster ground. He doesn't have the action of a horse who needs testing conditions as a prerequisite to producing his best and, if drying conditions prevail at Cheltenham, his chances may be enhanced rather than compromised. His owners have always been bullish about taking on Min and they do have a line into their chances, being the owners of the aforementioned Ball D'Arc who is also with the same Trainer and also entered in this race. However Tombstone appears to be their number one choice and he looks worth an e/w consideration in the win market.
Selection: Tombstone - 1 pt e/w. Available at 14/1. (Bet365, 888Sport, Boylesports, 32Red, Betfair. 1/4 odds first 3)
DISTANCE: 2m87y Old:
The opening race of the Cheltenham Festival sees the first of the Willie Mullins 'big guns' heading the market; Min is a current best priced 7/4 and as low as 5/4 with a few layers. He was beaten in his two starts in his native France but his obvious talent has been unleashed by his current handler and he has won both starts in Ireland with consummate ease. It's difficult to gauge just what he achieved but the second of those victories came in a Grade Two and the well beaten third, Ball D'Arc, followed up in a Listed Novice race at Punchestown and a Grade Two at Naas. Min is a slick jumper, and his best work at home is said to be done on better ground, so if there are drying conditions they are unlikely to inconvenience him. The yard have won the last three renewals of this race with Vautour (2014) and Douvan (2015) achieving it without coming under much pressure. Min is a keen going sort but he looks to have a serious engine and taking time to settle didn't harm Douvan's chances when he took this race last season. Educating a horse and teaching them how to 'race/battle' used to be an advantage in these Championship races but horses from this yard are re-writing the rules. Given the events of the past two seasons it wouldn't be a surprise to see Min stride up the hill in splendid isolation but it's arguable whether his form so far is worthy of such a short price. His odds mean there are some very good horses in opposition at tempting prices and the one that appeals most at this stage is Tombstone.
He holds entries for both the Supreme Novices and the Neptune Novices (21 furlongs) but, having raced over 16-18 furlongs in his four starts over hurdles to date, it's the Supreme which looks to be the way that connections are leaning. Tombstone's owners have A Toi Phil (Willie Mullins) also entered in the same two races and he has run over 20 furlongs in two of his three races over hurdles so he seems to be the logical choice for the longer event. Tombstone goes to Cheltenham having won his second start over hurdles but being beaten into second in his last two outings. That is not the typical profile of a possible winner of the Grade One opener but it doesn't tell the whole story. His defeat on his penultimate start came at the hands of Long Dog (Willie Mullins) when he was beaten three quarters of a length in a Grade One over 16 furlongs at Leopardstown. Long Dog had the advantage of six previous starts over hurdles and it showed as Tombstone ran a bit too freely and lacked the fluency of the winner. Tombstone also found himself short of room entering the straight, but for which he would've arguably beaten the winner; looking the better horse and long term prospect in the process. His defeat last time out came over 18 furlongs at the same track and it was a performance that raised question marks over his resolution and ability to win at Grade One level. That could be an unfair analysis. They began racing a fair way from home in very deep ground, and Tombstone did come under pressure earlier than normal, but he responded to get to the front over the final hurdle before giving way to a horse who looked a stronger stayer. He travelled well for much of the race and he could be a whole different proposition dropped back to two miles on better ground.
Tombstone has plenty of soft/heavy ground influences on both sides of his breeding but his Dam was a winner on fast ground and his GrandDam was closely related to a four time winner on faster ground. He doesn't have the action of a horse who needs testing conditions as a prerequisite to producing his best and, if drying conditions prevail at Cheltenham, his chances may be enhanced rather than compromised. His owners have always been bullish about taking on Min and they do have a line into their chances, being the owners of the aforementioned Ball D'Arc who is also with the same Trainer and also entered in this race. However Tombstone appears to be their number one choice and he looks worth an e/w consideration in the win market.
Selection: Tombstone - 1 pt e/w. Available at 14/1. (Bet365, 888Sport, Boylesports, 32Red, Betfair. 1/4 odds first 3)
