Novice Hurdlers 2015/16

Maruco said:
I couldn't agree more. There have been very many times when both DO and EC have highlighted horses much sooner than I've picked them, and I like to think I work pretty hard at it. The amount of work they and plenty of others put in could easily be something they keep to themselves, and I for one wouldn't want a few detractors to deter them from doing so.

We don't have to agree and debate is healthy, but civility costs nothing. There's a big difference between humorous comment and having a go unnecessarily. And whilst it's hard to erase history or forget previous spats, there's a fine line between being 'too harsh' and 'too sensitive', and 'vigorous debate' becoming 'having a go' when things inevitably start to become personal. Both have been the case in recent times.

It's the unnecessary personal stuff that's unedifying. And quite frankly whether it's because of a bad day, a row with the wife, too much to drink, or whatever, it's a bit pathetic.

Anyway there's an easy solution. I have a couple of people on ignore because they're just downright rude and not worth the effort. In fact come to think of it I couldn't even tell you whether they still post.
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And óf course, your judgement is entirely wise, unbiased, and always will be?
Forgive me, while I quietly chuck up.
 
reet hard said:
And óf course, your judgement is entirely wise, unbiased, and always will be?
Forgive me, while I quietly chuck up.
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well to be fair he is more unbiased than you Reet. you have the time to post that..but have ignored every post over the last week where your "buddy" from TRF has ripped into people.

you are soon quick to criticise "some" members here...whilst having not a dickie bird to say with others...yes thats unbiased alright:)
 
Kauto Abu said:
Neither Altior or Buveur D'air entered for the Dovecote Saturday.


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Straight to the festival for the pair by the looks of it. Hendo sounds confident about 1 of the 2 putting it up to Min & hopefully winning & clearly holds them in high esteem. Hopefully it's Buveur.
 
Tuesday 15th March
Champion Hurdle – closed 19th Jan. Supplementary entries 9th March
OBLG Mares Hurdle – closed 19th Jan. Supplementary entries 9th March
Racing Post Arkle Chase – closes 26th Jan. Supplementary entries 9th March
National Hunt Steeple Chase (Amateur) – closes 26th Jan
Supreme Novices Hurdle – closes 2nd Feb. Supplementary entries 9th March
Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase – closes 23rd Feb. Weights 3rd March
Festival Novices Steeple Chase – closes 23rd Feb. Weights 3rd March




Wednesday 16th March
Queen Mother Champion Chase – closed 14th Jan. Supplementary entries 10th March
RSA Chase – closes 26th Jan. Supplementary entries 10th March
Neptune Investment Novices Hurdle – closes 2nd Feb. Supplementary entries 10th March
Coral Cup – closes 23rd Feb. Weights 3rd March
Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle – closes 23rd Feb. Weights 3rd March
Glenfarclas Chase (Cross Country) – closes 23rd Feb. Weights 3rd March
Weatherbys Champion Bumper – closes 1st March




Thursday 17th March
Ryanair Chase – closed 12th Jan. Supplementary entries 11th March
Ladbrokes World Hurdle – closed 19th Jan. Supplementary entries 11th March
JLT Novice Chase – closes 26th Jan. Supplementary entries 11th March
The Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate – closes 23rd Feb. Weights 3rd March
Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle) – closes 23rd Feb. Weights 3rd March
Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase - closes 23rd Feb. Weights 3rd March
Trull House Stud Mares Novices Hurdle – closes 1st March




Friday 18th March
Gold Cup – closed 12th January. Supplementary entries 12th March
Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle – closes 23rd Feb. Supplementary entries 12th March
JCB Triumph Hurdle – closes 2nd Feb. Supplementary entries 12th March
Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase – closes 23rd Feb. Weights 3rd March
Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle – closes 23rd Feb. Weights 3rd March
Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle – closes 23rd Feb. Weights 3rd March
St James Place Foxhunter Chase – closes 1st March
 
I see that General Principle is entered in a couple of races this weekend. This time last year he seemed be one of the better Bumper horses in Ireland with the potential to be high class over jumps. He's in a 2 mile and 2 1/2m maiden hurdle and, hopefully,he will go for the latter; if he wins he would likely to be in consideration for the Albert Bartlett (makes sense to avoid Yanworth) and, if he won impressively at the weekend, he would be interesting in an open race. Lots of 'ifs' but at 33/1 may be worth a saver - could be half that price on Sunday night.
 
sunybay said:
The Neptune looks a fine edition this year.

yanworth. 160p
a toi phil. 148P
yorkhill. 150p
bleu et rouge 151+ g?
long dog 152+t



albert barlett
main ones

shantou village. 150p
barters hill. 149+
up for review. 153+
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Are these your figures sunybay yeah?
 
Grand, thanks. I'm holding out hope that A Toi Phil could sneak into the Martin Pipe off 145.
Fingers crossed.
 
Mullins on Min:

"I think he's as good as Faugheen and Vautour were (when they went to Cheltenham as novices). What he did the last day, having pulled so hard, he was really hard on himself throughout the race and then to pick up again and go away I thought was very good.
"He's followed near enough the same route as Vautour and Douvan and they are two hot horses to follow. Whether he's as good as those two I don't know, but he's doing everything they did.
"I don't think the occasion will bother him, we've not had problems in the parade ring and he'd be no different than any horse going to Cheltenham for the first time."
 
Grasshopper said:
Mullins on Min:

"I think he's as good as Faugheen and Vautour were (when they went to Cheltenham as novices).
...
Whether he's as good as those two I don't know, but he's doing everything they did."
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The form book says exactly the same thing, give or take a pound. Figures in the high 140s-low 150s for what they had done by this point.

My figures say what Altior has done so far is a good 10lbs better but they don't take into account what Min had in reserve (or Altior, for that matter).

That is not to say Altior is 10lbs better, of course. It's just a measurement of what they have achieved so far.

The thing for me, though, was that Altior's rating is higher than just about any winner in the last 20 years. I'm just going up the loft to check!
 
That's the difference for me though DO. Altior has only posted the high figures he has because he's needed to - on more than one occasion. Horses like Faugheen and Vautour hadn't been extended in posting the figures they had behind them going into he race and the same is true about Min and Buveur D'air.

It all comes down to style versus substance and I can see the argument for taking Min on with him at the prices but given that BD is a bigger price I'll side with that one on the visual impression he gave at Newbury and the fact that he had Altior behind him in that red hot bumper - though I concede they are likely to have improved at different rates since so that could be misleading.
 
Min has already posted higher figure than Altior on my calcs..it depends on the figures. Its not about potential..which is an added bonus with Min..he has the figures in the book for me now.

The official figures are not always right..Altior was only given a 144 in october..on my calcs he was a 152 hoss then..and i backed him accordingly since.

the only way an individual can know what the level of a horse is..is to do his own figures..i'd recommend it if you want to know the real level novices are kicking out. People who do figures..will always differ..even TF and official handicapper differ greatly..and markets are shaped by their ratings and opnion is formed by them. Thats why now,,people still think Altior is better than Min..on the figures. I think its opposite way round..time will tell
 
Figures derived before mid-November can be misleading, I reckon. Oftentimes, they are based on 'winter' horses coming out and beating horses who have run-up a sequence in the summer - which appears to be the case with Altior.

I would treat any high-figure awarded in October/early-November with a degree of caution, for this reason.
 
Willie Mullins has compared Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle favourite Min favourably against stable stars Vautour and Faugheen at the same stage of their careers.

There was no secret how highly Min was rated at Mullins' Closutton yard prior to his Punchestown debut in December and he did not disappoint as he landed odds of 4-11 with the minimum of fuss.

Stepped up to Grade Two company next time out he was even more impressive, despite racing keenly, and even Mullins himself was impressed.

"All the form lines are coming back good with Ball D'Arc winning (a Grade Two) in Naas. Everything that runs from his races compliments him," Mullins told At The Races.

"I think he's as good as Faugheen and Vautour were (when they went to Cheltenham as novices). What he did the last day, having pulled so hard, he was really hard on himself throughout the race and then to pick up again and go away I thought was very good.

"He's followed near enough the same route as Vautour and Douvan and they are two hot horses to follow. Whether he's as good as those two I don't know, but he's doing everything they did.

"I don't think the occasion will bother him, we've not had problems in the parade ring and he'd be no different than any horse going to Cheltenham for the first time."
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mullins bullish about the good thing
 
How far ahead are Altior & Buveur D'air on ratings than Vaniteux & Josses Hill going into Vautours Supreme win?

I know L'ami Serge was rated higher against Douvan but a lot went against him on the day, even from the off.


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but i didn't ignore it Grass..i ignored the official one in october re Altior..i believed in my view...which is my point about Min v altior...just because TF and official handicapper have Altior higher or same..it doesn't mean its so..very often they aren't correct..but tend to be treated as set in stone..which i don't believe they are

there are numerous examples of under rating of good performances..at this moment Min's race is being under rated imo..the original figure i get for that race..is larger than altiors..and for people who go by form franked..it has been franked in a strong way. I still question the low rating for Coneygree as well..a top rating imo

who is right?..time will tell..thats part of the fun
 
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2015 Douvan 165?
2014 Vautour 157
2013 Champagne Fever 162?
2012 Cinder And Ashes 157
2011 Al Ferof 157
2010 Menorah 155

2009 - 2005 missing

2004 Brave Inca 150
2003 Back In Front 158
2002 Like A Butterfly 145*
2001 no race
2000 missing
1999 Hors La Loi 154
1998 French Ballerina 152*
1997 Shadow Leader 149
*mare getting the allowance

The missing files will turn up. I know what they look like and they must be in an archive box that I put apart from the others for some reason.

Anyway, this gives a flavour of the history of the race.

Douvan, as everyone acknowledges, was a truly exceptional winner but I think his OR after the race was 'only' 160. I realise what I'm implying when I say that Altior is a 164+ animal. The Mullins team appear to hold Min in at least the same regard as Douvan, hence my being afraid of him but when I backed Altior he was 8/1 with 164 on the board while Min has subsequently hit 152 but was a short-priced favourite. Min can win all he wants at his price but my figures say he really will need to be the equal of Douvan to have any chance of beating Altior.

Another thing I notice is that, much like global warming, the novices seem to be getting hotter. Maybe trainers are working them a bit harder because the festival's importance has grown in recent years too. Then, with the quality that Ricci et al are buying in, the bar is being raised. It's getting to the stage where it might be getting meaningless to compare contemporary novices with those of yesteryear.
 
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