Novice Hurdlers 2018/2019

edgt said:
Like you I was very taken by Sam's Profile especially the way he ran on when getting out despite in and out jumping.
Mouse often had one placed at a big price in Festival Novice hurdles.
Family of Synchronised so will not stop when the pressure is on.
25/1 for Ballymore is attractive for a middle aged ew fogey like me.
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[FONT=&quot]“He’s only a five-year-old, if he goes to Cheltenham I wouldn’t have thought he’d run again and even if he goes to Cheltenham, I’m not sure yet. We’ll just keep his options open,” said Morris.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]“When he tried three miles at Cork it was just a bit much for him in fairness, but that is turning into a good race.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]“He’s definitely a next year job, I’m sure of that. Whether that’s over hurdles or fences, we’ll see.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]“My worry would be if he went for the Albert Bartlett that five-year-olds don’t have a great record in it.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]“I wouldn’t be against going to Cheltenham, I’m not getting any younger. I see he’s 20-1, but he should be that price just to get there.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]“Because of the weather there’ll be plenty of nice horses who haven’t even run yet. I suppose the longer it goes without raining raises the chance of a wet Cheltenham.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]“This lad will go on anything, but it was quick enough at Naas. Hopefully all he can do is improve.”[/FONT]
 
Double Handful said:
I appreciate he won the Galway hurdle on soft, but I think that's more relative to the fact he had 15lbs in hand running off OR 146 on the day. He's 163 horse now only 5 months later......
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... which is what I suspected his potential was going into the Supreme :mad:

On the morning of the race I wrote:

I do wonder if the going will render the form book virtually redundant. I reckon working out which of the highest rated runners can act well in the ground will be the percentage route to take. For that reason I’ve pretty much written off my bets on Sharjah. Mullins says he can’t put one foot in front of another in soft ground so why he’s even running here is hard to fathom. I’d much prefer he be taken out. Or in Mullins’s case taken out and shot.
 
the Moscow Flyer yesterday looks like the worst renewal in years

Bar Leopardstown, it's been a pretty rank average year of racing in ireland, mostly because of the weather but also a somewhat disappointing crop of novices
 
Bonjers said:
There have been rumours about his wellbeing for quite a while now.
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Should have paid attention. I've literally done multiples off what I've seen so far, or strongly think. Didn't even think about checking well being of the horses. Schoolboy stuff.
 
As archie says, Felix D put up a huge performance on the clock.

Up there with Elixir De Nutz and Al Dancer for the best performances in the book this season.

They ought to go straight to the supreme, has plenty of experience and got a tough race yesterday.
 
redundant pal said:
As archie says, Felix D put up a huge performance on the clock.

Up there with Elixir De Nutz and Al Dancer for the best performances in the book this season.

They ought to go straight to the supreme, has plenty of experience and got a tough race yesterday.
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He’ll find it very very difficult to make all in a Supreme. Elliott said yesterday that’s the key to him now, letting him bowl off in front. That’s himself & Exlir De Nutz who’ll be battling for the lead up front. Setting it up for something in behind perhaps.


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How did Mister Fisher look?
Took some nice prices about him after Quick Grabim was ruled out. Was nice to see he won but cant watch the racing me stuck in work. See hes into 10s with most firms now.
 
RP summary

Prominent, closed in on leader 3 out, bunny hopped and led 2 out, lugged left run-in, driven out and ran on
 
Thought he made hard work of it myself. But he got the job done and I’d expect him to improve again for that


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Double J said:
How did Mister Fisher look?
Took some nice prices about him after Quick Grabim was ruled out. Was nice to see he won but cant watch the racing me stuck in work. See hes into 10s with most firms now.
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Bit immature but plenty of talent. Doubtful he gets another run before March now so how he handles Cheltenham is a big question for me
 
Bunny hopped the second last and was green again when he got to the front. Decent engine but the fella at the top of the Supreme market works all over him at home i’m told.


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A general point for all Irish novices. If they don't win before February 1st they keep their novice status until next season's Royal Bond/Drinmore meeting. If the plan is only one run before Cheltenham anyway that's a powerful incentive to delay running until February.
 
Cheltenham race today leaves more questions than answers.

The front two pulled well clear which is a good sign and I think Olly Murphy's horse was probably going better before his tumble
 
Barry G's post-race analysis appeared to suggest he thought he wasn't going to win but a close second would have been a good run.

Also interesting, and I wonder if Kauto Abu saw it, was that beforehand Hendo from seemingly out of the blue mentioned I Cant Explain as being of similar ability as Birchdale.

Was he just covering himself in case ICE ended up a 'surprise' winner down the line?
 
DO, ICE scoped dirty after his last run behind Jarveys Plate. That was most definitely not his true running. I’d imagine he had that bug a few of them caught with coughing etc. He is held in very high regard there.


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We commented before the off on New Years Day, that when we saw his price drift like crazy ICE was going to be well beaten and heading to Festival handicap rather than one of the novice championships. The drift was too big to be coincidence.

I'm not surprised to hear the explanation though, although I don't believe it, particularly as Nicky has a serious number of impressive novices to split up in the spring, and a virus knocking around the yard presents the perfect excuse.

Bear in mind that ICE will likely get a very nice mark for either the Coral or the Boys race now, and if they've got it wrong they have the other Festivals up their sleeve .
 
ICE is currently rated 143. That's quite high. He'd need to be up to wining the Supreme to win a handicap off that mark.
 
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