Novice Hurdlers 21/22

Sir Gerhard now joint 3rd favoutite for the Supreme. With NRNB on the go all it does in confuse where he is likely to run Some would indicate there is more chance of DD going Ballymore.

I'd be more likely to think Supreme as Ruby said lately he is all about speed
 
think he'd have a fair chance in either but ballymore seems obvious given how much weaker it looks. couple of iffy jumps there but it's clear there's a big engine under the bonnet.
 
I think that he'll go to the Ballymore. Dysart Dynamo and Kilcruit to the Supreme and Minella Cocooner, The Nice Guy and maybe Classic Getawayto the Albert Bartlett.
 
I think that they'll go for a grade 1 with Kilcruit.

Willie's numbers in the handicap hurdles will likely be down this year given how many of his less exposed novices have only had two career runs over hurdles. I am thinking of the like of Bronn, El Fabiolo, Henn See and Glengouly.
 
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Sir Gerhard ran a quicker time than the Irish Champion and also faster than the handicap hurdle despite carrying the most weight.
 
Double J said:
Sir Gerhard ran a quicker time than the Irish Champion and also faster than the handicap hurdle despite carrying the most weight.
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omission of the 2nd last probably helped a few seconds but i dont think i need a clock to see this animal has an engine and plenty of boot

given the hurdling errors i do think he'll go ballymore and should be clear fav
 
JamesRB said:
omission of the 2nd last probably helped a few seconds but i dont think i need a clock to see this animal has an engine and plenty of boot

given the hurdling errors i do think he'll go ballymore and should be clear fav
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Agree, will take some stopping and looks the easier race. Goes off odds on or close to depending what turns up.
 
chroniclandlord said:
I think that he'll go to the Ballymore. Dysart Dynamo and Kilcruit to the Supreme and Minella Cocooner, The Nice Guy and maybe Classic Getawayto the Albert Bartlett.
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You guys have a huge advatage over me as lots of these interviews for some reason get the "Not available in your country" treatment so I am left to my own resolve.

I find Double J's post saying he was faster than Honeysuckle interesting and the fact a horse with such speed would be stepped up in trip doen't seem logical to me:blink:
 
Tanlic said:
You guys have a huge advatage over me as lots of these interviews for some reason get the "Not available in your country" treatment so I am left to my own resolve.

I find Double J's post saying he was faster than Honeysuckle interesting and the fact a horse with such speed would be stepped up in trip doen't seem logical to me:blink:
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Tan, if you don’t already use it you can probably get https://nagme.com/news which is the Press Association feed they all use.
 
One hurdle equates to under 0.7s, assuming it's jumped fluently. It doesn't affect the comparison too much.

Comparisons can be useful if properly contextualised. It's comparisons taken out of context than can be very misleading.
 
It is bollocks though. Sir Gerhard was put under zero pressure in that race, he was less that economical at a few of them but there was no comeuppance. I think Mullins has a shot at beating the Hendo pair in the Supreme with DD and can win the Ballymore with Sir G. They can win the Ballymore with DD also but their chance in the Supreme is much reduced if Sir G heads for that race.

Did anyone else watch the post Leop show on RTV Saturday evening. They were discussing the AB and Jane Mangan asserted there are no Monkfish's around this year. Ruby's reaction to this and to her point that if there is a Monkfish around we have yet to see him was very interesting. He had a twinkle in his eye.
 
Desert Orchid said:
One hurdle equates to under 0.7s, assuming it's jumped fluently. It doesn't affect the comparison too much.

Comparisons can be useful if properly contextualised. It's comparisons taken out of context than can be very misleading.
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0.7 to go around a hurdle and not over it. Put your stopwatch in the ******* bin and start again.
 
Euronymous said:
It is bollocks though. Sir Gerhard was put under zero pressure in that race, he was less that economical at a few of them but there was no comeuppance. I think Mullins has a shot at beating the Hendo pair in the Supreme with DD and can win the Ballymore with Sir G. They can win the Ballymore with DD also but their chance in the Supreme is much reduced if Sir G heads for that race.

Did anyone else watch the post Leop show on RTV Saturday evening. They were discussing the AB and Jane Mangan asserted there are no Monkfish's around this year. Ruby's reaction to this and to her point that if there is a Monkfish around we have yet to see him was very interesting. He had a twinkle in his eye.
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What's your best guess?
 
The Nice Guy is their AB horse

Sir Gerhard beats Journey with Me in the Ballymore

Constitution Hill and DD battle it up the hill MTOY/Champagne Fever style in the Supreme. Best jockey wins :(
 
Slim said:
0.7 to go around a hurdle and not over it. Put your stopwatch in the ******* bin and start again.
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No. It's based on the average difference in times between a 2m hurdles race (with 8 flights) and a 2m bumper race over CD carrying similar weights with the hurdles removed.

You could argue the difference is very marginally reduced if a hurdles race goes round an omitted flight due to the extra ground covered.

Check the Dayjur jump in the Breeders' Cup Sprint. He was a neck up and increasing his advantage when he jumped the shadow. Within two or three strides he was half a length down and losing ground.

Aggregation of marginals, and all that.

1990 Breeders' Cup Sprint - Safely Kept -vs- Dayjur - YouTube
 
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Slim said:
0.7 to go around a hurdle and not over it. Put your stopwatch in the ******* bin and start again.
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If you are doing sectional and ahurdle is omitted why not simply wait till 3 or 4 strides past the hurdle and start from there? It's not rocket science
 
Slim said:
0.7 to go around a hurdle and not over it. Put your stopwatch in the ******* bin and start again.
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If you are doing sectional and ahurdle is omitted why not simply wait till 3 or 4 strides past the hurdle and start from there? It's not rocket science
and do the same for the horse who jumped it
 
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