Novice Hurdlers 21/22

I've crunched a few more numbers from Sunday's Leopardstown card.

They're telling me Sir G's race was exceptionally strong, comparing vary favourably with both Honeysuckle's and the very strongly run handicap.

The difference with Dysart Dynamo is that his visually impressive performance isn't backed up by the clock. My gut says he's the better of the pair but there isn't the hard evidence for it.

If DD goes for the Supreme he'll hack up.

If Sir G goes for the Ballymore he only needs to stay to hack up.

If they swap, the same applies.

If they clash it will be some contest.

I don't care what else is in opposition. Both these two are in Altior-Shishkin territory.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've crunched a few more numbers from Sunday's Leopardstown card.

They're telling me Sir G's race was exceptionally strong, comparing vary favorably with both Honeysuckle's and the very strongly run handicap.

The difference with Dysart Dynamo is that his visually impressive performance isn't backed up by the clock. My gut says he's the better of the pair but there isn't the hard evidence for it.

If DD goes for the Supreme he'll hack up.

If Sir G goes for the Ballymore he only needs to stay to hack up.

If they swap, the same applies.

If they clash it will be some contest.

I don't care what else is in opposition. Both these two are in Altior-Shishkin territory.
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If DD goes for the Supreme he'll hack up.

If they swap, the same applies.

I don't care what else is in opposition. Both these two are in Altior-Shishkin territory.

Based on a gut feeling
 
Thanks, Maxbet.

The gut feeling is about DD although the bare form is hugely positive taking into account the ORs/RPRs of the beaten horses. All I'm really saying is that for now I can't put a figure on it but when I can I'm expecting it to back up the visual impression.

It's pretty sad that your first contribution in ages to any discussion is to snipe.

At least some of us are trying to keep discussions alive in the face of others who want to kill them.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Thanks, Maxbet.

The gut feeling is about DD although the bare form is hugely positive taking into account the ORs/RPRs of the beaten horses. All I'm really saying is that for now I can't put a figure on it but when I can I'm expecting it to back up the visual impression.

It's pretty sad that your first contribution in ages to any discussion is to snipe.

At least some of us are trying to keep discussions alive in the face of others who want to kill them.
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Sorry if I offended you. it wasn't meant as a swipe, although I see your point. I just find it strange for someone who applies science and spends a great deal of time doing so, to make such a call on pure gut instinct...
 
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I've been watching and anlysing racing since the 60's and I am fooked if I know how you can crunch the numbers of horses in two entirely different countries.

Of course you can have an opinion by watching and coming to the conclusion that Arkle aint half bad.

Not one of the four has met what I would call a Cheltenham contender they have gone off at 2/5,2/5,8/13 and 4/9 against rubbish in comparison.

Only an idiot would come to the conclusion that horse X will **** up in a race like this one.

Altior Douvan and Vautor won the Supreme but none had 3 horss like these to contend with and all three went off at odds against.

Even before the Irish came on the scene I was so unsure that I dutched the Henderson pair and I am still not sure if either one can actually win.

We can all have opinions but for once I wish some posters would keep it real instaed of posting shyte so if it turns out to be correct they can say "I told you so"

Most posters are level headed it's just that same few who continously talk absolute rubbish that get on my tits.
 
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Maxbet said:
Sorry if I offended you. it wasn't meant as a swipe, although I see your point. I just find it strange for someone who applies science and spends a great deal of time doing so, to make such a call on pure gut instinct...
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Appreciated, Maxbet.

While I obviously do spend a lot of time on the nuts and bolts ("science" is a bit flattering) of form study , I'm not immune to the occasional gut-instinct punt. When it happens I'm prepared to call it as such.

I thought DD was visually mind-blowing and some rudimentary rating comparisons appeared to back it up. The only slight concern is that the clock hasn't quite backed it up but DD was easing down from some way out that day. Maybe he had already given his all and was being looked after but by then the devastation had been done.
 
granger said:
I am not sure why there would be any doubts about Sir G saying?
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In today's Weekender, Tom Segal mentions Sir G's pedigree as part of his case for sticking at 2m.

In short:
His 2m bumper speed
Pedigree (miler Jeremy and close relative of damsire Zafeen, also a miler)

Segal concedes that Sir G might be even better at further.
 
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Tanlic said:
Most posters are level headed it's just that same few who continously talk absolute rubbish that get on my tits.
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The 'what are you backing today' thread isn't as busy these days, no surprise people are reluctant to put a bet forward with comments like this. You'll be the only poster on it at this rate!

I for one don"t actually put up that many horses on the forum, and use it more for brainstorming or discussing future races etc.

I am sorry for getting on your tits!
 
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Desert Orchid said:
In today's Weekender, Tom Segal mentions Sir G's pedigree as part of his case for sticking at 2m.

In short:
His 2m bumper speed
Pedigree (miler Jeremy and close relative of damsire Zafeen, also a miler)

Segal concedes that Sir G might be even better at further.
Click to expand...

I think speed in a bumper horse is a fallacy
 
Desert Orchid said:
In today's Weekender, Tom Segal mentions Sir G's pedigree as part of his case for sticking at 2m.

In short:
His 2m bumper speed
Pedigree (miler Jeremy and close relative of damsire Zafeen, also a miler)

Segal concedes that Sir G might be even better at further.
Click to expand...

Appreciate it also a Jeremy but would have gone for the Ballymore if Ferny Hollow hadn't got injured. Sir G's "speed" better employed in the Ballymore imo. The Supreme can go to Al Ferof, Champagne Fever type grinders. Altior would have been better over further than 2m.
 
Slim said:
It's become quite clear that nobody has a clue where they will run except for Willie.
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I've used 50-50.
I've asked a few friends.
The audience is reluctant.

He will stay, and the Balleymore looks easier...Balleymore it is, Final choice Balleymore...
 
PP are 9/2 Dysart Dynamo for the Supreme and 9/2 Sir Gerhard for the Ballymore. They seem to beadamant that they will go for the reverse races. I imagine this is coming from Ruby, but Ruby only gets to give his imput he doesn't make the decesions. The exchange seems to have gone that way too probably influenced by PP's prices.

I think it's worth burning a few pounds on the double.The upside far outweighs the downside and I don't think anyone the plans right now.

9/2 Dysart Dynamo (Supreme)
9/2 Sir Gerhard (Ballymore)
 
I think it's unlikely that he'll run both Sir Gerhard and Dysart Dynamo in the same race. I'd personally favour DD in the Supreme and SG in the Ballymore but this is what NRNB is there for. NRNB doubles covering the options? If they end up in the same race at least you have a single on each of them. Separate races and you have one money back and one living double.
 
archie said:
I think it's unlikely that he'll run both Sir Gerhard and Dysart Dynamo in the same race. I'd personally favour DD in the Supreme and SG in the Ballymore but this is what NRNB is there for. NRNB doubles covering the options? If they end up in the same race at least you have a single on each of them. Separate races and you have one money back and one living double.
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I spent about two minutes trying to figure that out last night but gave up on the assumption I was missing something :lol:
 
Slim said:
PP are 9/2 Dysart Dynamo for the Supreme and 9/2 Sir Gerhard for the Ballymore. They seem to beadamant that they will go for the reverse races. I imagine this is coming from Ruby, but Ruby only gets to give his imput he doesn't make the decesions. The exchange seems to have gone that way too probably influenced by PP's prices.

I think it's worth burning a few pounds on the double.The upside far outweighs the downside and I don't think anyone the plans right now.

9/2 Dysart Dynamo (Supreme)
9/2 Sir Gerhard (Ballymore)
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PP are 7/4 Sir Gerhard for the Balleymore
 
This isn't the first time he's give The Little Yank 2 quick runs in the same month be more like the 10th
He is 4 for 39in rubbish races for the most part but he's pulled in 73k in prize money.
The trainer must think he's tough enough to take it and he hasn't done anything to assume he isn't

Out of curiosity in what way do you find him running again interesting Slim?
 
barjon said:
Accordinging to Simon Rowland Kilcruit has joined the game as well. It’d be something to see them crossing the line with nothing between them, but I suspect one will show up as a super-star and romp in.
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Kilcruit had an easy lead in a steadily run (thereby uncompetitive) race and such sectionals will tell sfa for a contest such as the Supreme; no matter how well they're sculpted.
 
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