Novice Hurdlers 21/22

I think if someone gave me a grand to put on a horse in the Supreme I’d still be holding it in my hand when they set off. Looks like being a humdinger, but we don’t know what any of them can find when they come under real pressure.
 
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Despite having dutched the Henderson pair months ago if someone gave me a grand I'd wait till after the last,:lol:

Normally I have a firm choice in big races especially over hurdles but hand on my heart I can see anyone of the 4 main players winning this.

Neither Nicky or Mullins have been willing to stick their necks out and say which one of theirs is the more likely to win and I am not for second guessing them
 
The biggest headache right now is knowing for certainty which of them are definite runners - ignoring the possibility of injury etc ruling them out altogether.

We can all opine and some look more likely than others but any one of the top 4 plus a host of others such as Pied Piper could realistically run in an alternative race and at least one or two probably will.

If you’re not on already then the ante post market on the race is effectively closed unless you fancy something at a price so it’s one to look forward to and bet on the morning of the race.
 
wilsonl said:
The biggest headache right now is knowing for certainty which of them are definite runners - ignoring the possibility of injury etc ruling them out altogether.

We can all opine and some look more likely than others but any one of the top 4 plus a host of others such as Pied Piper could realistically run in an alternative race and at least one or two probably will.

If you’re not on already then the ante post market on the race is effectively closed unless you fancy something at a price so it’s one to look forward to and bet on the morning of the race.
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Agreed mate. Waiting until the day on a few races myself.
 
Ok Marb but no race at the meeting even comes close to competeing with this.

We have 4 top class hurdlers all at the top of their form and if you take the lowest price offered on each there's 2 points between them.

As Wilson points out knowing which will turn up for sure we don't know but if by any chance all 4 do.........this could create most interest in a race since Kauto Star V Denman.

Fingers crossed they all go
 
Accordinging to Simon Rowland Kilcruit has joined the game as well. It’d be something to see them crossing the line with nothing between them, but I suspect one will show up as a super-star and romp in.
 
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Kilcruit’s defeats to date may not look as bad as they did at the time come the end of the season.

He could conceivably have been outstayed by the winners of the Ballymore & Albert Bartlett LTO over 2m4f and his previous conquerer; Largy Debut clearly wasn’t right at Leopardstown.

In an average year he’d still have a pretty strong chance but the possibility of this being a very strong renewal does temper enthusiasm in him considerably.
 
Kilcruit won't be mapped in a Supreme, typical son of Stowaway who likes to dictate, and downs tool if not allowed to.

He did a great time trial against a Brendan Duke horse and a dead one of Christy's.
 
barjon said:
Accordinging to Simon Rowland Kilcruit has joined the game as well. It’d be something to see them crossing the line with nothing between them, but I suspect one will show up as a super-star and romp in.
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In reply to Simon Rowlands.Have you considere taking up knitting?:lol:

No matter how I run it around in my head I can't see any one of them doing an Istabraq from 2 out and skipping clear race over sort of thing.

Both Dysart Dynamo and Jonbon have exceptionally high cruising speeds so you wouldn't want to be taking them until between the last 2 at the earliest.

Sir Gerhard and Constitution Hill look the types who can quicken on a sixpence but they are going to have to to catch and pass the other 2,

I can't see any more than a length or a length and a half being in it at the end. All four have got good things going for them and IMO it's going to be close.
 
Tanlic said:
No matter how I run it around in my head I can't see any one of them doing an Istabraq from 2 out and skipping clear race over sort of thing.
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Let the record show:

1. Istabraq ran in the Sun Alliance Hurdle, rather than the Supreme Novices
2. He was all-out to beat Mighty Moss ridden by corinthian superstar Mr Fred Hutsby!
 
Incase you don't know Grassy Istrabraq won 23 races including 7 Champion Hurdles 3 of which were run at Cheltenham

In 1998 and 1999 he took up the running just after the 2nd last and skipped clear of his field and the race was over before the final turn for home.

In 2000 Charlie Swan left it a bit later until the home turn before slipping through in much the same style but won it in much the same trademark style he was know for.

WTF mentioned the Sun Alliance? :blink:
 
Tanlic said:
WTF mentioned the Sun Alliance? :blink:
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You're no right in the heid, pal.

You were talking about how the Supreme horses might compare to Istabraq.........on the Novice Hurdlers thread.

Stop comparing Novice Hurdlers with three runs under their belt, with a triple Champion Hurdler........in much the same way as you should stop comparing novice chasers with 5 runs under their belt, with dual Champion Chasers, ya fecking ding-a-ling.:lol:
 
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I've only just noticed The Little Yank was a close third in the big handicap hurdle today.

Absolute worst-case scenario - the race fell apart and he plugged on to run to his rating of 122.

Last time out he couldn't live with Dysart Dynamo and was beaten 49 lengths. That would put DD on roughly 170, plus whatever DD had in reserve. Take DD out of that race and not many would argue with the form, TLY, a 150/1 shot beating a 125/1 shot a few lengths and 30 lengths behind a 14/1 shot and the 14/1 shot 19 lengths behind the odds-on favourite.

Sometimes if it looks too good to be true it is. But sometimes it is true.

My gut just keeps telling me this time it's true and DD is an absolute monster.
 
They ran a mile further today, DO. I watched the race, having had my pound each-way on The Little Yank - he stayed on, off a low weight basically. I’m not sure how the race would have played out if DD had have raced, but he would have been up against some seasoned stayers and possibly wouldn’t have stayed. How would we rate DD under that scenario?
 
Len Madeiros said:
They ran a mile further today, DO. I watched the race, having had my pound each-way on The Little Yank - he stayed on, off a low weight basically. I’m not sure how the race would have played out if DD had have raced, but he would have been up against some seasoned stayers and possibly wouldn’t have stayed. How would we rate DD under that scenario?
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Absolutely, Len. I was using the absolute worst-case scenario to fit my bias :lol:

I think we'll learn more when the runner-up reappears.
 
Sir Gerhard was novicy enough but that did his Supreme chances no harm at all have beaten Col Mustard further than Jonbon

I though Paul Townsend could have been asking him to pick up at his hurdles more than he did but he's the granny and I am i no place to tell her how to suck eggs
 
Tanlic said:
Sir Gerhard was novicy enough but that did his Supreme chances no harm at all have beaten Col Mustard further than Jonbon

I though Paul Townsend could have been asking him to pick up at his hurdles more than he did but he's the granny and I am i no place to tell her how to suck eggs
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I think the opposite. Screams Ballymore. He jumped three of them ordinary enough.
 
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