Novice Hurdlers 21/22

With what they see in the yard with Jonbon - and on the racecourse so far - he’s destined to become the champion of champions and bound to be campaigned patiently for the long term. Rather like Frankel he might provide a fitting swansong for a great trainer.
 
barjon said:
With what they see in the yard with Jonbon - and on the racecourse so far - he’s destined to become the champion of champions and bound to be campaigned patiently for the long term. Rather like Frankel he might provide a fitting swansong for a great trainer.
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In the Voltairian Utopia, Jonbon is all you want him to be and on Tuesday we discover he's on 149 :cool:
 
True. He'll have a mark but it might not be made public. They might need to enter him in a handicap to see his mark.
 
Desert Orchid said:
True. He'll have a mark but it might not be made public. They might need to enter him in a handicap to see his mark.
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The handicapper has a good barometer with I Like to Move It beaten 13l or so off 138 and conceding 5lbs to the winner.

Of more interest to me will be the hikes Knappers Hill and Elle Est Belle receive, especially the latter for the likes of the Betfair Hurdle.

I think DO is on the mark with 149, 150 tops, but academic as he won't be running in any handicaps prior to the Supreme.
 
Archie....a horse does not need to be entered in a handicap.

The h'capper can give any novice a hurdler a mark after 2 runs at his discretion as long as the horse has finished in the first 4 both times.

I am not sure if he is obliged to do so but that is how the rules stand at this time
 
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barjon said:
With what they see in the yard with Jonbon - and on the racecourse so far - he’s destined to become the champion of champions and bound to be campaigned patiently for the long term. Rather like Frankel he might provide a fitting swansong for a great trainer.
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Mentioning the great one with some jumping Bon Jovi :nono:
 
Thinking way ahead Nicky Henderson has already declared how he sees Constituion Hill's future being over fences
Jonbon looks so much like his brother he looks destined to head to also go chasing next seaon.

So i doubt if either will go the Champion Hurdle 2023 route.

Depending what happens in the Supreme one will go Arkle IMO and if both make the grade the other will head for The Golden Miller.

That could change if Honeysuckle fails to win the Champion Hurdle but that is very very unlikely.
I would advice having some of that 6/1 for the 2023 Champion as defeat in March is out of the question.:)
 
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Where to now. Nicky sent L'ami Serge to Sandown for the Tolworth before running against Douvan

Constitution Hill may return there before the Supreme and some punters have been asking for a price for that race.

Jonbon I imagine will go for the lowest class hurdle race Nicky can find for him just to freshen him up.

He does love Kempton for that very purpose but it would be too soon for Jonbon.

Anyone got any suggestions/ideas where they will go next?
 
Huntingdon could be perfect for Jonbon. Be crazy to give him another togh assignment and I wouldn't expect it to be a strong race. 5 weeks before the Supreme is pefect..

Pretty sure he'll want to test a bit deeper water with Constitution Hill and the Tolworth has to be fav for him.
 
Please point me at Jonbon’s previous ‘tough assignments’, Tanlic.

If there’s a horse in training that doesn’t know it’s been in a race yet, it’s Jonbon.
 
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You're grasping at straws :blink:

That would be the race you said was a decent test for him...said to be the best novice hurdle of the season so far

Just because he turned it into a proccesion doesn't mean it wan't a good race...though I had my doubts

The point I am making is Nicky will probably be looking for the easiest possible race he can for him. like he did with Shishkin.

He did the same with Spirit Son who also went to Huntigdon and Exeter of all places before the Supreme.
 
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Yeah, going into it, it did look a decent test…….but he won it with his head in his chest, ergo, it wasn’t half the test it appeared to be beforehand.

The bit I was disputing was your assertion that he had ‘tough assignments’ to date, and it would therefore be ‘crazy’ to run him in ‘another’ one. As I said before, he hasn‘t broken sweat so far, and from the evidence available, connections have nothing to fear sending him into G1 novice company.

I don’t doubt Henderson will look for the easiest-possible option. It would hardly be out of character, as you’ve pointed-out with the examples above.
 
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I’ve just been told by Frontrunner that Jonbon has been given a mark of 145, and I can’t quite believe it’s so low. I would be all over him for Newbury if he got into the Betfair Hurdle on that rating.
 
He'd be certain to get in...H'capper must have looked Col Mustard only finishing 2 3/4 in front of the 133 rated 3rd and gone from there.

Buzz was alloted 11st7lbs of that same mark this year.
 
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Hard to say what he'll do...Altior was rated only 2lbs higher and Henderson never entered him
Darlan 146 would have won but for falling 2 out and MTOY did win before finishing 2nd in The Supreme

Interesting thing is both were JP's and he loves a punt in this type of race.
 
Grasshopper said:
I’ve just been told by Frontrunner that Jonbon has been given a mark of 145, and I can’t quite believe it’s so low. I would be all over him for Newbury if he got into the Betfair Hurdle on that rating.
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Yes, I was just checking the ratings database before coming on here and Jonbon is listed as having a 'new' rating of 145.

I will be all over him like the proverbial if he goes for the Schweppes. Then again, let's not forget Vicario Di Bray...

Still, I was anticipating some extra marks for impression when I forecast 149 but it looks like the handicapper has indeed gone with the ten-year trends for the race rather than hammer the hose for being impressive.

Somehow I can't see Hendo badgering the handicapper for it to be revised downwards!
 
You have to ask did he not run Altior for the reason that both MTOY & Darlan after big runs in the Schweppes both got run out of it in the Supreme.

Depending on what mark Constitution Hill gets if he hacks up next time Nicky might decide to run one in the Schweppes and one in the Supreme.

One I suppose could go Newbury then Aintree?.....If they won all 3 races Nicky would be very happy but getting the owners to agree might be very difficult.
 
Darlan didn't make it to the Supreme, unfortunately - though maybe the answer is the same regardless.

Henderson's other novices (including) Constitution Hill have to be viewed differently, in the context of the Betfair Hurdle, because JP has very-often used it as a stepping-stone towards the Festival, with his brightest 2m novice prospect. The option is built into their race-planning strategy, whereas it's generally not considered by any of Henderson's other owners (perhaps because he discourages it?).

JP and Frank Berry are probably licking their lips at the prospect of getting in off 145, and conversely, Henderson is probably desperate to avoid it.

Regardless, it wouldn't be JPs modus operandum to swerve the Festival. If Jonbon was to take his chance at Newbury, he would still go to Cheltenham - win, lose or draw, imo (unless something adverse happened to rule him out).
 
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I backed the winner of the Supreme that year Grassy Cinders and Ashes and darlan was second in the race,

That only backs up what you are saying about the Betfair. It's actually worth a lot more than the Supreme.

JP rarely backs AP these days if at all and if entered there is sure to be a weight of public money for Jonbon

I wouldn't take the chance and won't back him until he is a confirmed runner..
 
I think the handicapper could have allotted Jonbon a mark of 140 and they still wouldn't go.

Henderson more risk-averse than ever nowadays and going there with a young horse who's had just two hurdle starts would not be in his long-term best interests.

Get Me Out of Here had more match practice, including handicap experience while My Tent Or Yours was too keen in novice hurdles so the pace of a Betfair Hurdle was to his benefit.

To answer your question Tanlic I think he'll run at Newbury alright, just not in the Betfair...the novice hurdle conceding a penalty to put him spot-on for the Supreme.
 
My mistake, Fist - it was the following year's Champion Hurdle Darlan didn't make.

There won't be a market for the Betfair Hurdle for a number of weeks yet (even Betfair usually wait for the initial entries before taking a view), but if he is entered, I can see Jonbon being installed a very short-priced favourite in the ante-post market.
 
redundant pal said:
I think the handicapper could have allotted Jonbon a mark of 140 and they still wouldn't go.

Henderson more risk-averse than ever nowadays and going there with a young horse who's had just two hurdle starts would not be in his long-term best interests.

Get Me Out of Here had more match practice, including handicap experience while My Tent Or Yours was too keen in novice hurdles so the pace of a Betfair Hurdle was to his benefit.

To answer your question Tanlic I think he'll run at Newbury alright, just not in the Betfair...the novice hurdle conceding a penalty to put him spot-on for the Supreme.
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MTOY a better template, as I reckon a strong-pace would see Jonbon to even better effect, RP.

I've no idea whether he will even be given an entry, but given connections previous in the race, it can hardly be discounted.
 
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Grashopper, I agree absolutely and he would be a short-priced favourite if entered.

Nicky will be walking his box for the man in the hat's call.
 
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