Novice Hurdlers 21/22

redundant pal said:
I think the handicapper could have allotted Jonbon a mark of 140 and they still wouldn't go.

Henderson more risk-averse than ever nowadays and going there with a young horse who's had just two hurdle starts would not be in his long-term best interests.

Get Me Out of Here had more match practice, including handicap experience while My Tent Or Yours was too keen in novice hurdles so the pace of a Betfair Hurdle was to his benefit.

To answer your question Tanlic I think he'll run at Newbury alright, just not in the Betfair...the novice hurdle conceding a penalty to put him spot-on for the Supreme.
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Wouldn't disagree with any of that. Darlan and MTOY went off at 5/1 and 12/1 because they were not considered in the same League as Bonjon I suspect.........Jonbon would be 6/4 or evens if he ran
 
This is not a negative for the Supreme. Of the last seven British trained Supreme winners two of them ran in the Tolworth.
 
Grasshopper said:
I’ve just been told by Frontrunner that Jonbon has been given a mark of 145, and I can’t quite believe it’s so low. I would be all over him for Newbury if he got into the Betfair Hurdle on that rating.
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Timeform take:

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle favourite Jonbon earned a Timeform rating of h149P (from 132P) for his comfortable victory in the Kennel Gate Novices’ Hurdle at Ascot on Friday, underlining his star potential by seeing off his four rivals with the minimum of fuss.
The unbeaten Jonbon is not only now the highest-rated novice hurdler we’ve seen so far this season, but he has also reached a lofty standard for a horse still in the infancy of his career.
For context, there have been three renewals of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle in the last 10 years in which Jonbon would have been the top-rated runner already. The first two examples were those won by Labaik in 2017 and Klassical Dream in 2019, while Appreciate It stood out on form with a rating of 148p before winning the latest renewal of the Supreme at odds of 11/8-on.
All roads now lead to the Supreme for Jonbon, who is still open to significant improvement after doing everything that could have been expected of him in the Kennel Gate, bolstering the positive impression he had created when winning his maiden at Newbury three weeks earlier.
Admittedly, the crawl to the second made the early stages of the Kennel Gate a bit of a farce, but there was still a lot to like about how Jonbon went about things once sent to the front, ultimately proving a class apart from his rivals and just needing to be kept up to his work in the straight to beat Colonel Mustard by two and three quarter lengths.
Speed and fluent jumping were the hallmarks of Jonbon’s performance, a combination which promises to stand him in good stead in the Supreme. Now no bigger than 9/4 for that Festival target, there is little doubt he is a worthy favourite.
 
Timeform on the same wavelength as me, then...

Is that a good thing or not?!

Still, personally, I'll be stunned if Jonbon doesn't go for the Schweppes. Off the top of my head, I think it's worth more than the Supreme. And money talks.

Soaring Glory went up to 143 for winning the race and was gubbed out of sight in the Supreme. If Jonbon were to win the Newbury race he'd go up to about 153, probably his true mark, and be strongly fancied for the Supreme.

Hendo has a seriously good record in the Schweppes. Why wouldn't he go for it? Then again, if he targets something else for the race in preference to Jonbon...
 
Desert Orchid said:
Timeform on the same wavelength as me, then...

Is that a good thing or not?!

Still, personally, I'll be stunned if Jonbon doesn't go for the Schweppes. Off the top of my head, I think it's worth more than the Supreme. And money talks.

Soaring Glory went up to 143 for winning the race and was gubbed out of sight in the Supreme. If Jonbon were to win the Newbury race he'd go up to about 153, probably his true mark, and be strongly fancied for the Supreme.

Hendo has a seriously good record in the Schweppes. Why wouldn't he go for it? Then again, if he targets something else for the race in preference to Jonbon...
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As I mentioned earlier they think Jonbon is destined for really great things so I guess he’ll be campaigned patiently with the long term firmly in mind. Not sure the Schweppes fits into that scenario, but you never know.
 
I am still very much in the Redundant Pal camp.

I would want 4/1 him even running in the race as Nicky has actually claimed it's very hard to find a race for him and never even mentioned the race,Schweppes.

The Morebattle hurdle is out of the question now it's run early March but you can bet Nicky will be looking for some Mickey Mouse race for him
and has totally ruled out the Schweppes for his baby.

As suspected Constitution Hill heads back to Sandown for the Adonis.

Don't be surprised if Nicky and Frank Berry decide on a racecourse gallop at Kempton to sharpen Jonbon up and then head straight to Cheltenham.

As the man says it's all about the horses well being and future and Jonbon is just out of his nappies.
 
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Last horse I said that about was Ginto. I think there are positives from the race, maybe not 570K positives, that being said.
 
The big news at Clonmel was the first race. An unraced, well-backed JP winner who did it easily without being asked a serious question.
 
archie said:
The big news at Clonmel was the first race. An unraced, well-backed JP winner who did it easily without being asked a serious question.
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Was about to post something in the Ante post thread. Wasn't missed in the market. Ridden like they knew what they had as well.
 
archie said:
The big news at Clonmel was the first race. An unraced, well-backed JP winner who did it easily without being asked a serious question.
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Yes I saw it live. Very impressive first time out.

12/1 for the mares novices hurdle I see.
 
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wilsonl said:
Willie (as always) has some selection of novice mares.
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Could have the first 5 home if he wanted. An absolute embarrassment of riches. Seen 4 of his put up already by different tipsters. 2 just today.

A minefield of a race, Ill be staying away from it from a betting perceptive
 
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Double J said:
Could have the first 5 home if he wanted. An absolute embarrassment of riches. Seen 4 of his put up already by different tipsters. 2 just today.

A minefield of a race, Ill be staying away from it from a betting perceptive
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Yes. If you worked in the yard and you didn’t win a tidy sum from the forthcoming Cheltenham race, you’re either an idiot or they’ve no respect for you. Taken straight (or loosely) from Slim’s top 100 twitter advice.
 
Anyone brave enough to lay Constitution Hill today?

I know he doesn't do it with his very best horses - unbeaten records seem to mean a lot to him - but Hendo hotshots have a knack of getting beat at odds-on in trial races.

I'm seriously thinking about laying him today.
 
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Euronymous said:
Examples? This is a Grade 1. There was a shortie at Kelso one year. Can't think of any others.
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There was a juvenile last year at Sandown with Nico riding. 1/2 I think. Ground was blamed.

I wouldn’t be laying CH anyway.
 
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It's a long time since I was able to recall names off the top of my head but I wouldn't have made the suggestion if it wasn't in my mind for some reason other than senility :)

Wasn't the Kelso one a 1/14 shot? (A grey?)

Wasn't there a 1/7 beaten too?

Hasn't he had two or three beaten at Kelso?
 
Zaynar was the one that got turned over at 1/14 at Kelso, but he wasn’t a novice. It was his Champion Hurdle trial.
 
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