Novice & Juvenile Hurdlers 2019/20

Double Handful said:
I watched it on YouTube. It was pure sensationalism and propaganda!! The night was a Betfair benefit and they milked the life out of it. The Elliott "bombshell" designed purely to whip up activity on the Betfair exchange on ALL novice hurdle markets, which it duly did.

The whole night was 100% targeted at encouraging mug punters to use the exchange more.

It didn't rain a drop in Cheltenham yesterday and weather dry again for the next 48 hours. If/when Elliot walks the course sat/sun, like he says he will, it'll be closer to soft/good to soft in places, than it will be heavy.

I'm calling bulls**t and firmly believe Envoi Allen still goes Ballymore!
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Couldn't have put it better myself
 
Double Handful said:
I watched it on YouTube. It was pure sensationalism and propaganda!! The night was a Betfair benefit and they milked the life out of it. The Elliott "bombshell" designed purely to whip up activity on the Betfair exchange on ALL novice hurdle markets, which it duly did.

The whole night was 100% targeted at encouraging mug punters to use the exchange more.

It didn't rain a drop in Cheltenham yesterday and weather dry again for the next 48 hours. If/when Elliot walks the course sat/sun, like he says he will, it'll be closer to soft/good to soft in places, than it will be heavy.

I'm calling bulls**t and firmly believe Envoi Allen still goes Ballymore!
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I sincerely hope you're right but I disagree.
Watching it back I genuinely think Elliott looked uncomfortable discussing it saying it as knows will get **** off punters.
But I think you can tell he has convinced himself that supreme will be best (builds argument by saying won 6 out of 7 over 2 miles).
He's going Supreme in my opinion.
 
It was a Betfair night streamed live so a perfect opportunity to show how the Exchanges work trying to attract new members.
Envoi goes Ballymore.
 
If that genuinely is the case it would make me very uncomfortable and if you did similar with the stock market (particularly in the US) they’d all end up in prison!
 
Sorry, to clarify, I'm not suggesting Elliot was involved. His comment's were fairly normal. He did the same with Samcro and it's consistent with the man to hmmm and hawww and say both races are still possible.

My point is that the panel and guests met before they went live. And because it pissed rain all day in London that Gordon saw, they all then seemed to jump on a strong and definite view that the ground was going to be very testing. Pre show, I've no doubt that led Gordon to make a comment along the lines of "Jaysus if it's bottomless I'd seriously consider switching Envoi to the Supreme"

So once they went live on stage they absolutely milked this talking point, knowing that it would drum up serious trading on all 3 novice markets. Hence the Betfair benefit comments I suggested.

The fact is it did not rain in Cheltenham at all yesterday and the weather forecast is fairly settled. The ground is very unlikely to get much softer than it is now, imo.

So either it was a serious lack of investigating the facts about the ground from the panel or........ more likely it was loose enough chat pre show that'd be heavy - and once Gordon suggested a possible Envoi switch based on that, they knew that would be a gold mine, so they absolutely milked it!
 
Sounded to me like Elliott was leaving the door open on it, and ensuring everyone was aware that a switch was possible.

It was not (imo) an endorsement that Envoi is more likely to run in the Supreme.

We'll find out Sunday. Anyone betting between now and then, is either guessing or hedging.
 
Final decs for Supreme

Abacadabras Allart Asterion Forlonge Berkshire Royal Captain Guinness Chantry House Edwardstone Elixir d’Ainay Fiddlerontheroof Hollow Sound Jabbaar Mario de Pail Shishkin Soviet Pimpernel Whatsnotoknow Heaven Help Us
 
Berkshire Royal not run over hurdles before and has had Group One entries on the flat :blink:
 
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There is nearly £2K queuing to lay Shishkin at 7/2 in the Supreme. Asterion Forlonge now fave on the machine.
 
Don't reckon so, PJ - has won on Good and Heavy.

I fear something more sinister, but it's not like the drift has continued unabated - holding at 7/2 at the mo.
 
Timeform give Shishkin 164P and AF gets 167p, so possibly fair enough that they have flipped.

I'd still want to be with Shishkin if all is well with him, though, and 7/2 looks a decent price to me.
 
Grasshopper said:
Timeform give Shishkin 164P and AF gets 167p, so possibly fair enough that they have flipped.

I'd still want to be with Shishkin if all is well with him, though, and 7/2 looks a decent price to me.
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I wouldn't let the price put you off.
 
First year in many I don’t really have a strong fancy in the Supreme. Won’t be a big bet in the race but I’ve took Edwardstone e.w.

Can’t make my mind up on Shishkin, therefore won’t be betting. I think I’d pick Asterion over him but couldn’t argue a strong case as to why.
 
Should we read anything significant into Shishkin wearing the owner's first colours and the Mullins horse the second?

Is the owner in the habit of fannying about with the colours and putting punters away?
 
Doubt it would have come up before for Joe Donnolly, and everything suggests that he left all decisions on participation up to the trainers, so not sure there is the gambling angle you are looking at in this one.

Shishkin wins easily though.
 
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