Overdose

EC1 said:
what would put you off mainly Steve? - that last run is pretty good on paper..in fact red hot looking at the time it was run in..and visually not much different to his other wins

do you think he is going to bomb out..or not be good enough?
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Possibly bomb out, but more likely not to be good enough. Like I say I’ve no real idea how Hungarian/Slovakian form translates (…some of you may have but I don’t). It seems to me that basing hopes on a void Abbaye is a nonsense. Consequently I’ve only got a bit of German form to go on and quite frankly I’ve seen better. This is always assuming he’s as good as he was anyway, which for a horse with his way of running seems especially doubtful to me. I’m not rich enough to risk money on a bet like this, especially when I see domestic Group 1 winners that match up to your own 120 requirement lining up against him. I’d nominate the ones I’ve mentioned to give him a race and would think they cannot all run poorly. Consequently I’d be surprised if one or two of these won’t beat him. There has to be value in this market the betting to me looks upside down.

…like I say though perhaps I’m wrong… it did happen once before in the mid 1970s I seem to recall.:whistle:
 
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It's not just his central European form though, his 10 length defeat of Black Mambazo is way better than anything this mob could manage and if he is anywhere near that form then he'll demolish this lot.

I just don't think we have a consistent 120 sprinter. The only one that would come close in this race would be Kingsgate Native.

The speed duel between Overdose and Tangerine Trees is the most interesting part of the race for me, I can't see TT laying up with him. If I owned TT, I'd be exploiting his all-weather mark to be honest..... ;)
 
Gamla Stan said:
I just don't think we have a consistent 120 sprinter.
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...maybe not a consistent one, but a handful who are capable of it and like I say it's high risk to expect them to all run badly and the favourite run to his best (whatever that is).
 
SteveM said:
...maybe not a consistent one, but a handful who are capable of it and like I say it's high risk to expect them to all run badly and the favourite run to his best (whatever that is).
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That's a very fair way of viewing the race to be honest but on the flip side, you could argue that Overdose IS consistent and the RPR have him to running to 119 last time out on his first run back from a break.

I might back the fav at 5/2 and back one at a nice price EW against him, probably Tangarine Trees or Kingsgate Native. I can't see any others winning.
 
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I would back Kingsgate Native, but win only. He is likely to either win, and win well, or bomb out - as you said, not the most consistent sort.
 
Gamla Stan said:
Tangarine Trees or Kingsgate Native. I can't see any others winning.
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I wouldn't put you off either of these. They look outstanding value to me. However, I'm rubbing my eyes at 12/1 Sole Power. This is such good value that I must be wrong!
 
ask me! hoppegarten is rather undulating, but the only straight track we have. the run into a dip after the start, and its a climb from there on. the course record wasnt smashed, they started measuring 3 seconds too late!

when overdose got beat in baden baden he originally refused to enter the stalls and it took stall handlers about 20 minutest (!) to load him.
 
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I love the headline on the Racing Post website: Overdose could be 'even better' than in Abbaye. So he “could” be even better than he was in a void race where half of them were pulling up before halfway.
…It’s invaluable the info these guys give us.:lol:
 
crazyhorse said:
ask me! hoppegarten is rather undulating, but the only straight track we have. the ran into a dip after the start, and its a climb from there on. the course record wasnt smashed, they started measuring 3 seconds too late!

when overdose got beat in baden baden he originally refused to enter the stalls and it took stall handlers about 20 minutest (!) to load him.
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Thanks for that.

There goes the Overdose is back to near his best argument. If he jumps out ahead and goes 4/6, he is possibly the best lay of all time.

I'm with you Steve (though would add Kingsgate Native as if all horses perform to their best, he wins comfortably).
 
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SteveM said:
I love the headline on the Racing Post website: Overdose could be 'even better' than in Abbaye. So he “could” be even better than he was in a void race where half of them were pulling up before halfway.
…It’s invaluable the info these guys give us.:lol:
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:lol:

Seriously though, people still look at that 'race' in comparison with the actual race a few hours later, and see Overdose as the best sprinter that day.

Next we will be hearing about horses times on gallops meaning maidens are better than Group winning horses!
 
I have to admit I just don't get it. A horse would have to be Dayjur in disguise to come and win the Temple like this... I've looked at the footage and still don't get it.
 
Hamm said:
Seriously though, people still look at that 'race' in comparison with the actual race a few hours later, and see Overdose as the best sprinter that day.

Next we will be hearing about horses times on gallops meaning maidens are better than Group winning horses!
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Explain how he running a time faster than the real Abbaye time doesn't mean he was the best sprinter that day. He ran flat out and both horse and jockey believed they were racing (going off in front is his usual running style after all).

Horses running in races are running as fast as they can, horses running in gallops are not.
 
... and of course the horses that did contest the second running had been out to the start, been in the paradering etc. not saying that was exhausting as such, but it were highly unusual circumstances even for experienced racehorses.
 
saying that i do not want want to say that overdose isnt a very good horse. i have seen him several times over here in germany, and he isnt much to look at, is usually sweating, was always difficult at the start etc.; BUT 0.57,.. sec. for 1000m is still a very good time, and as i said before I have never seen him look better than in hoppegarten last month. his hoove-problems are well documented, and its all down to his mental state I feel . would love to seem him do well but too short a price for me as well.
 
Gamla Stan said:
Explain how he running a time faster than the real Abbaye time doesn't mean he was the best sprinter that day. He ran flat out and both horse and jockey believed they were racing (going off in front is his usual running style after all).

Horses running in races are running as fast as they can, horses running in gallops are not.
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A race is one horse against all of the others, not against a clock (or a split screen youtube video!). It is impossible to have any clear idea where Overdose would have finished in the actual race. There is nothing that can be done with the first race than disregard it.
 
Hamm said:
There is nothing that can be done with the first race than disregard it.
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Absolute nonsense, he ran a time faster than the other race on the same day over the same course in the same conditions therefore it's obvious where he would have finished.

He was racing as he would have done in the actual race, fully extended as his jockey didn't realise what was going on behind him. The conditions the horse experienced that day would have been no different to any other race he's ran in, in that he went off infront at a furious pace and very few lay up with him. I don't know what else he could have done, this wasn't some racecourse gallop (racecourse gallops sure aren't ran quicker than races), this was a race for Overdose and he ran faster than the real Abbaye in race conditions for the horse.

It's all pretty academic though given this is form of two and a half years ago. The question today is, if he is still the same horse he was that day. If he is then it's certain he'll easily take care of the Temple field.
 
It's not, and this shows the enormous limitations of relying on time. The other race took place at a different time of the day, at a different pace, with horses have all exerted themselves to different extents earlier in the day. It is absolutely true to say there is no way to be sure where he would have finished in the Abbaye (which was not the 'other' race, as that implies what Overdose did was a race, and it wasn't). Everything was different. I am sure there have been handicaps which have produced faster times than Group races run on the same day - does this mean the winner of a handicap would have won the Group race? Of course it doesn't, far from it. Races are run against other horses, not a clock, and certainly not a split screen youtube video.
 
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Overdose doesn't get his career-best rating from a race that never happened though anyway. It's the Italian Group 3 where he had them strung out all over Rome that gives him the beating of these, providing he's still capable of it.
 
Hamm said:
It's not, and this shows the enormous limitations of relying on time. The other race took place at a different time of the day, at a different pace, with horses have all exerted themselves to different extents earlier in the day. It is absolutely true to say there is no way to be sure where he would have finished in the Abbaye (which was not the 'other' race, as that implies what Overdose did was a race, and it wasn't). Everything was different. I am sure there have been handicaps which have produced faster times than Group races run on the same day - does this mean the winner of a handicap would have won the Group race? Of course it doesn't, far from it. Races are run against other horses, not a clock, and certainly not a split screen youtube video.
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But both races were run on the same day and conditions were identical (I was there, as were you I think?). Both "races" were Group races and the pace was identical (it's a sprint, they run as fast as possible). You don't seem to have acknolwedged that Overdose was racing. As far as his and his jockey knew, the race was going exactly to plan and it's how he runs and wins every race.

Horses don't run times faster than Marchand D'Or and not be Group class sprinters, it's physically impossible, be it in a "race" or not. If anything, his performance should be upgraded for not being in race conditions with nothing chasing him!!

It's also nothing to do with a reliance on time on this occasion (although I think you need an underlying factor to your own personal form study no matter what and my personal preference is for time). Also, if you are going to use raw times, it will be most useful in sprints.
 
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Marchand d'Or wasn't trying to beat Overdose's time, he was trying to beat the other horses in the field. There is no way of knowing, especially with Marchand d'Or's running style, whether Overdose would have held on (assuming for a minute the below is ignored).

How one horse out front goes affect others (sectionals, even in sprints) so that would throw the 2 runs apart. As would ground conditions (and air/wind) - Overdose ran at lunchtime, and the Abbaye was in the late afternoon (in October). We also don't know what the aborted race took out of the other horses (they wouldn't normally do this before a race). There are so many imponderables to make any hypothesising of where Overdose would have being placed meaningless. He was unlucky in that he clearly looked to be decent but that's it; he should have ran in the Abbaye anyway.
 
I don't think they should have even voided the first race for what it's worth, better inconvenience one horse rather than the field.

I just don't understand how you can't grasp that running faster than Marchand D'Or on the same day, on the same ground makes the horse a genuine Group One sprinter. It's physically impossible to run faster than him and not be as good as him.
 
The point is that Marchand d'Or wasn't trying to run as quickly as possible. He was trying to win his race.

Carlton House ran his race 3.5 seconds slower than Midday over the same C&D last week, in spite of carrying 3lb less.

Does this mean that Midday is the better horse by:

3.5 / 0.16 = 21L (0.16s length for time)

+3L = 24L (Midday carried 3lb more)

- WFA of 15L = 9L

so 9lb difference between the horses? No because the races were different, even though the conditions were the same.
 
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Bar the Bull said:
The point is that Marchand d'Or wasn't trying to run as quickly as possible. He was trying to win his race.

Carlton House ran his race 3.5 seconds slower than Midday over the same C&D last week, in spite of carrying 3lb less.

Does this mean that Midday is the better horse by:

3.5 / 0.16 = 21L (0.16s length for time)

+3L = 24L (Midday carried 3lb more)

- WFA of 15L = 9L

so 9lb difference between the horses? No because the races were different, even though the conditions were the same.
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Completely different comparison, 1m2f races are ran at differing paces (those two certainly were), a sprint is ran at a full whack pace throughout.
 
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