Overdose

[Hamm]

Sprints are most definitely NOT run at full pace throughout - that is a huge misconception.

 

[Gamla Stan]

Sprints are most definitely NOT run at full pace throughout - that is a huge misconception.

Those two were. Anyone with eyes can see that.

 

[Bar the Bull]

Subjective, your honour.

 

[Hamm]

So know you can tell how fast a horse is going by using your eyes?!!!!

Come on, now that is ridiculous.

Sprinters definitely do not go full pace throughout a race, simply no way. This is basic sectional analysis here.

 

[Gamla Stan]

Comparing Overdose and Marchand D'Or is a world away from comparing Midday and Carlton House, that's the point I'm making.

You're comparing two very similar races with two very different races.

 

[Hamm]

No, it's not - it's the exact same principle. Relying on 2 times to determine that a horse would have won a race he didn't even run in is hugely wide of the mark. Not that I think Overdose would have finished second (I think any guessing at where he would have finished can only be wrong), but Marchand d'or wasn't trying to beat a time - he races in such a way he comes from behind and his jockey times (ha) it so that he wins the race, not that he beats a fictional time.

 

[Bar the Bull]

There is less of a difference in the way 5f races are run, certainly. But there is a difference.

 

[SteveM]

I don't think they should have even voided the first race for what it's worth, better inconvenience one horse rather than the field.

Even if the horse was an outsider this would be wrong, but it was Fleeting Spirit!!

 

[Gamla Stan]

The Middleton and Dante were completely different races, the Dante was ran at an absolute plod, I would omit it from any speed rating calculations from that day on my own figures. You can see from the two replays of the Abbaye that they were ran at very similar paces (markers on the course at certain times illustrate this).

How would you explain Overdose running a faster time than Marchand D'Or if he wasn't at least his equal? Horses don't run faster on their own! Any horse than runs five furlongs in 54 seconds is a serious horse.

 

[Gamla Stan]

Even if the horse was an outsider this would be wrong, but it was Fleeting Spirit!!

It shouldn't matter what price the horse is, the starter has a split second decision to make and in my opinion it's better to inconvenience one rather than the rest of the field (especially in a sprint where it takes forever to pull them up).

 

[SteveM]

It shouldn't matter what price the horse is, the starter has a split second decision to make and in my opinion it's better to inconvenience one rather than the rest of the field (especially in a sprint where it takes forever to pull them up).

That's what I'm saying, that it doesn't matter what horse is inconvenienced.

...But what sort of a precedent does it set if you allow races to go ahead when horses are still in the stalls???!!!

 

[Hamm]

The Middleton and Dante were completely different races, the Dante was ran at an absolute plod, I would omit it from any speed rating calculations from that day on my own figures. You can see from the two replays of the Abbaye that they were ran at very similar paces (markers on the course at certain times illustrate this).

How would you explain Overdose running a faster time than Marchand D'Or if he wasn't at least his equal? Horses don't run faster on their own! Any horse than runs five furlongs in 54 seconds is a serious horse.

No-one is saying Overdose isn't a decent horse; the argument was (from you!) that he would have won the Abbaye.

The arguments above show that it is impossible to predict where he would have finished.

 

[Gamla Stan]

That's what I'm saying, that it doesn't matter what horse is inconvenienced.

...But what sort of a precedent does it set if you allow races to go ahead when horses are still in the stalls???!!!

I just think it's better for 15 horses to race and 1 to sit in the stalls than 1 to sit in the stalls and get to race later on (admitedly she didn't in this case) than 15 have to run a furlong at full pelt to be pulled up and forced to run later on.

 

[Gamla Stan]

The arguments above show that it is impossible to predict where he would have finished.

Well it's not impossible as running 5f in 54 seconds would see you take most Group One sprints, especially one ran in the same afternoon in the same conditions ran in 54.4 seconds.

 

[Hamm]

Have we not convinced you yet the Abbaye was not the same conditions?!!

 

[Gamla Stan]

Have we not convinced you yet the Abbaye was not the same conditions?!!

No, it was a race over the same trip on the same piece of grass on the same afternoon with a horse running under a jockey thinking he was racing.

The only point I take on board of yours (crazyhorse made it ) is that the runners may have been suffering fatigue in the actual running but Marchand D'Or barely goes any distance in the void race so I don't think it makes that much difference.

You talk as if Marchand D'Or was carrying 4 stone more and Overdose was on performance enhancing drugs.

 

[Hamm]

You will need to have a re-think if you cannot see my point about pace (put better by Barry) and horses trying to win a race rather than beat a fictional time. Also, conditions were different (look at the time Overdose ran and the time of the Abbaye). Plus, the physical state of all horses was different. These all combine to offer what I can see is a really, really strong case that Overdose's 'run' should be ignored, in terms of guessing as to where he would have finished, as there is simply no way to know.

 

[Bar the Bull]

The point made earlier about the horses having to be loaded twice, lead from the parade ring twice etc. could have an effect on the times.

Like Hamm says (god I hate agreeing with him), it doesn't mean that OD is not a serious horse, it just means that you can't guarantee he would have won the race.

 

[Hamm]

I love you too.

 

[EC1]

I think its a mistake to compare 5f races to 10f ones in regard to time.

I doubt there is very little tactic taking place in a Group sprint..the fastest horses go off at their best speed and those that aren't as fast early hope they tire..there is no timing of a finish from those behind..the front horses either run themselves out of not

i haven't checked this out..but i'll bet if you look at the top ten 10 100 metre times ..that the 10 fastest times are held by some of the fastest men on earth

whereas you get the best 1500 metre times and you will get some times that aren't necessairly run by the best milers

 

[Hamm]

Again, not true.

The likes of Fleeting Spirit and Marchand d'or prefer being held up - this is not because they cannot go the pace, more that this is their style of running, and is hence not 'all out'.

It is right to say there are less tactics in a 5f race, and more horses do go all out (I actually don't believe any horse is ridden as fast as possible early on, but I'll use the term in the sense I think you both mean it) than in longer races, but there are still many different racing styles.

 

[Bar the Bull]

I am not saying that you can compare 10f times with 5f times. I am just saying you can't compare one time with another.

Laddies Poker Two won the Wokingham off 8-11 in a time 0.3s faster than Starspangledbanner (9-4) over the same C&D 35mins earlier.

So 2L faster time. 5L less carried.

Does anybody think that the two performances were within 3L (8lb) of one another?

No, Starspangledbanner was ridden to beat a G1 field, and he therefore (from memory) tried to go full pelt all the way. LPT was ridden with more restraint, and therefore was able to maximise his ability by running more evenly.

Please don't make me come up with a 5f example!!!!!

 

[Gamla Stan]

Please don't make me come up with a 5f example!

That Golden Jubilee wasn't ran at a furious pace for a sprint so I'm going to make you come up with a 5f example. Preferably both all-aged Group Ones ran on the same card.

Also, I'd hardly call the time "fictional" that Overdose posted, I can lend you a stopwatch Hamm.

 

[EC1]

5f is different by quite a degree to 6f..20% increase in distance means that more tactics come in to play..and does make comparing times a little harder

i've not checked this out..and yes to a degree the results will be at the mercy of which races where run when the going is fast..but..check out who holds the record over 5f at the top tracks..York obviously highlights this..at 5f its Dayjur..whereas at other trips it can be handicappers

At 5f the fastest times will tend to be the better horses..at further its different

i haven't checked..so maybe wrong

 

[EC1]

ask me! hoppegarten is rather undulating, but the only straight track we have. the run into a dip after the start, and its a climb from there on. the course record wasnt smashed, they started measuring 3 seconds too late!

when overdose got beat in baden baden he originally refused to enter the stalls and it took stall handlers about 20 minutest (!) to load him.

3 seconds???..thats a load of bunkum isn't it?

I've hand timed the race twice and the official time is spot on.