Paddy Power Gold Cup

If this was a Nicholls horse, i think he would be being assessed differently right now.
 
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Grasshopper said:
Reet, whilst I have some sympathy with the view that the form should be treated with a degree of caution, I'd be surprised if the rate of improvement in FNS wasn't considerably more than the "3-4 lbs" you suggest.

The winning distance might be misleading, but the manner of the performance was not. It was pretty-much everything you could have asked for beforehand without getting greedy.
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As I said earlier, Grass, he invariably runs well fresh, so you'd expect him to maintain the improvement that good novices usually do.
However, nothing in his technique, running style, equipment, his form over hurdles and chases, or connections comments before and after the race, hinted at anything like the improvement he purportedly made here, so there's the first reason to question it.
Add to that, he had everything in his favour, plus the 2nd horse was never put into the race until it was over, and the 3rd tried laying up with the pace over a distance similar to the one he'd failed 3 times previously at, and the form maybe isn't so hot.
3 or 4lbs is obviously something of a guess, but I'd bet it's nearer the mark than the one the OH will make.
 
Anyone know anything about Al Ferof's well-being and/or targets?

Betfair's three-figure-prices about the horse for the Paddy Power is bellowing in my lughole, but I figure something must be pointing him away from the race for him to be at such odds.
 
taken from Attheraces website;

Smart novice chaser, won twice over two miles last season then came up short behind Sprinter Sacre at Cheltenham then third to Menorah over two and a half at Aintree when rated 160. “A little later coming back because he got a little injury at home during the summer so is a bit behind. I doubt he’ll be ready to take up an entry for the Paddy Power Gold Cup so it’s more likely he’ll go for the two mile three chase that Master Minded won last season. Then I’d look at The Peterborough or an intermediate chase at Kempton over three miles – he’s crying out for a trip.”
 
jft2005 said:
taken from Attheraces website;

Smart novice chaser, won twice over two miles last season then came up short behind Sprinter Sacre at Cheltenham then third to Menorah over two and a half at Aintree when rated 160. “A little later coming back because he got a little injury at home during the summer so is a bit behind. I doubt he’ll be ready to take up an entry for the Paddy Power Gold Cup so it’s more likely he’ll go for the two mile three chase that Master Minded won last season. Then I’d look at The Peterborough or an intermediate chase at Kempton over three miles – he’s crying out for a trip.”
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In Paul Nicholls charity book he says "He is likely to step up in trip this year and will get an entry in the King George V1 Chase."
 
I was hoping Martin Keightley would sens Champion Court for this but he's had a rush of blood to the head and he goes elsewhere before heading for the King George:blink: I wish him luck with that project.

Grand Crus you can make excuses for at the Festival but I'm not sure about him being as good as some seem to think he is. His Feltham win was good but that's not a race that always takes an awful lot of winning. Nicky Henderson an awful man for using Kempton as a stepping stone to Cheltenham' He wins a lot of races there but reckons running horses there that are perhaps unsuited to the course helps teach them to quicken:blink: Seems weird to me but it's hard to argue with a man with his record.. Bob's Worth looked to be in that category as he was hating every minute of the Feltham,having to be scrubbed along form along way out but finished the race much stronger than Grands Crus did. At Cheltenham it was a different story and he reversed the placing in no uncertain manner. I reckon that might be just about as good as Grands Crus is and that might not be good enough to be winning what is always a very competitive race. I certainly couldn't back him with confidence.

For Non Stop was very impressive beating nothing at Aintree. I find it hard to trust early season form. Anyone know if he's going to Cheltenham?

Hunt Ball's story would make a better movie than National Velvet shooting up the ranks like a rocket. I kept waiting for the bubble to burst but even in defeat at Aintree when he was most likely over the top, he looked like a horse who was worth every pound of his new mark. Horses like him very often don't go on once so high in the handicap and it takes years before they see the winning enclosure again. I doubt if that will be the case with him he looks the type to hold his own in any company.

Walk On looked like chasing was going to be his game when he trounced Zaynar but has disappointed me since. Goes well enough fresh, yards in form I reckon he could run a big race without winning and could run into a place.

Menorah.....Safe to say he has a screw lose...I'd rather try and get round Cheltenham on a bicycle than ride him. Classy animal on his day but those days don't come often enough for me. In a competitive hell for leather race like this I could see him getting round but whether Richard Johnson is still with him when he passes the post or not is another matter.

The ultra consistent Hunt Ball would be my selection at this stage but I wouldn't back anything until it's clearer what runs
 
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EC1 said:
which tallies well with the time of the other 2.5 mile race
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Time comparisons aren't much use in this case, as one race was run at a furious pace with the other at a relative crawl - in much the slowest time of the day.
There's little doubt that Stagecoach Pearl and Mad Max went off like bats out of hell - that they still managed to finish 3rd & 4th gives a clue to the worth of the form as a whole.
 
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Tanlic said:
I was hoping Martin Keightley would sens Champion Court for this but he's had a rush of blood to the head and he goes elsewhere before heading for the King George:blink: I wish him luck with that project.
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I cannot understand this at all. Leading chance if he runs.

The market is top heavy with the higher rated horses (walkon apart) and I'll be looking for something lower down the handicap now. Havingotascoobydo had a reasonable pipe opener the other weekend and I'm kind of intrigued that Ghizao is still with Nicholls. I'd have half expected that horse to be jettisoned after a disappointing 2011/12.
 
reet hard said:
Time comparisons aren't much use in this case, as one race was run at a furious pace with the other at a relative crawl - in much the slowest time of the day.
There's little doubt that Stagecoach Pearl and Mad Max went off like bats out of hell - that they still managed to finish 3rd & 4th gives a clue to the worth of the form as a whole.
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Unioniste's race was 7.9 seconds slower than standard..clearly not the slowest race on the card.. . Pasco's race was 14.3 seconds slower over the same trip. So how that is the slowest race by some way i'm not sure..htf did you conclude that?

Unioniste's time was respectable for that class of novice and so is a decent guide to the worth of the Roan..and also ties in with Marufo's time....which makes FNS about a 160 speed figure..Timeform have given a 163 rating..pretty close imo

Stagecoach Pearl & MM did indeed finish 3rd and 4th..beaten 32 lengths and 36 lengths..quite a way...which to me doesn't say anything bad about the form imo

i'm not wasting anymore time on this topic Reet because you clearly just post up anything to have an opposite view..even if that means posting up non facts
 
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I reckon Mad Max was trying to steal it from the front. He pushed him to get there, but it's not as if he was pushing away trying to extend the lead right through - settled down to a nice gallop once he was at the front with a nice lead and then let him come back to the field prior to making his final effort.

Obviously he managed to save a bit for the end so the furious gallop argument doesn't hold up.
 
Unioniste's time was respectable for that class of novice and so is a decent guide to the worth of the Roan..and also ties in with Marufo's time....which makes FNS about a 160 speed figure..Timeform have given a 163 rating..pretty close imo
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Dear, oh dear!
How can you possibly Unoiste's race for comparison, when they didn't jump 6 of the fences?
 
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reet hard said:
Dear, oh dear!
How can you possibly Unoiste's race for comparison, when they didn't jump 6 of the fences?
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I would expect that to make little significant difference to the overall time ..in fact they may have gone faster at those fences as horses are ridden into them..probably affected the time by a second or two...if that....also Maruso's race time backs up the time of the Roan

either way..the novice was not the slowest race on the card as you stated

if it makes you feel better..you are a way smarter person than I..i'm not worthy to post on same board as you..does that make you feel better?..maybe stop you trying to score points at every touch and turn.

you da man Reet..you da man;)

you know more than Timeform and official handicapper..in fact you wasted on here;)
 
Jesus H.Christ.
I never mentioned the Novice race as the slowest on the card, and I assumed you would also have ignored it under the circumstances.
The discussion has feck all to do with personalities, and everything to with the worth of the form. Keep your fragile ego out of it, try and tell the truth a little more often, and we'll get along fine.
 
reet hard said:
Jesus H.Christ.
I never mentioned the Novice race as the slowest on the card, and I assumed you would also have ignored it under the circumstances.
The discussion has feck all to do with personalities, and everything to with the worth of the form. Keep your fragile ego out of it, try and tell the truth a little more often, and we'll get along fine.
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i did mention the novice race though...by name of winner...on the previous page to this..i clearly referred to that race...so you haven't read it right.

i haven't told any lies..and would appreciate you stop calling me a liar..thats twice in a few days

i'm happy to use the novice time as its swings and roundabouts how much the time was affected...probably very little....maruso backs up the roan anyway

fragile ego?..lmfao....change the record ffs

ego has nothing to do with reading how you arse lick around certain members and talk to others..mainly myself ..as though talking to tw@ts

i might well be a twat..but i ain't yours;)
 
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