Paddy Power

harry said:
No new Johnson horses, loads retired or gone to the grave"Monteith" 3 new hotpots with Nicholls???
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New hotpots at Nicholls?? What are those? I know he's got Marodima, Indian Blood (massively disappointing) and Chapoturgeon, but didn't know there were any others.
 
Shame that Twiston is now saying Imperial Commander is likely to miss the Hennessy, not least since I told quite a few people on Saturday morning that IC was just the type to win the PP then go on to land the Hennessy, IMO! He has a lovely weight, even allowing for the 6lb penalty and the probable rise in the weights. Still, expecially after so long off, a two week gap between two highly competitive races is skinny enough and pushing it a little, depending on how the horse comes out of yesterday's race. He's still a horse I like a lot and has immense amounts of talent, I feel he will possibly even improve for a step up in trip, to me he is a 3m+ chaser.

As for Pipe, sometimes yards go through quiet spells or times when their horses aren't right and there's the square root of bugger all you can do about it. It's a shame really since after the amount of time that has passed since David took over the change in the type of horse he has in the yard is immediately apparent, as is the differing ideas in methodology when it comes to training them and for what [ie taking into account the horse in the future rather than flogging it for a season before it keels over!] so in my eyes the ascension of David has been a very good thing for the yard and the horses.
 
Shadow Leader said:
Shame that Twiston is now saying Imperial Commander is likely to miss the Hennessy, not least since I told quite a few people on Saturday morning that IC was just the type to win the PP then go on to land the Hennessy, IMO! He has a lovely weight, even allowing for the 6lb penalty and the probable rise in the weights. Still, expecially after so long off, a two week gap between two highly competitive races is skinny enough and pushing it a little, depending on how the horse comes out of yesterday's race. He's still a horse I like a lot and has immense amounts of talent, I feel he will possibly even improve for a step up in trip, to me he is a 3m+ chaser.

Some comments below from the owner Shadow. Looks like its back to Cheltenham.

"A brilliant day - sorry I wasn't a bit more bullish but didn't want to tempt fate - but I think he showed how much class he has yesterday. We were gutted we didn't get to the RSA last year and on a form line with Battlecry even more gutted when we saw the race. But 139 in the PP was a dream in itself, we thought we would win it off 150. We have always known how good he was and yesterday was the horse we always knew we had - and Paddy thinks he will improve for the run. In Paddys words "the best chaser I have ever sat on".Trainer whispered in my ear on the podium that we only have 9.05 in the Hennessey. Discussed it with Paddy off to whisper in the trainers ear that we are going for the Boylesports and then off to give IC some more polos."

Then this from NTD.

Twiston-Davies said on Sunday: "Our present thought is to go for the Boylesports with Imperial Commander. There are only two weeks until the Hennessy and that is not very long for a horse who was coming back on Saturdayafter a long break.

"The kindest thing would be to go for the Boylesports. We know he stays the trip and there are more things right about that race than the Hennessy. If he does winthe Boylesports, we could then think about the King George."
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Stables being in or out of form can usually be boiled down to one of two things. Either the horses are rubbish and being run in the wrong races, or the horses are good and are being run in the wrong races.

The most common perception of a yard being in or out of form tends to depend on how highly the yard is 'rated'. 'Big' yards that 'should' be having loads of winners as if by divine right must have a virus or some other problem if they arent firing them in because its inconceivable that the horses arent much cop or that the great trainer is making a series of mistakes in sending horses to the wrong races or has miscalculated their fitness.

Pablo Du Charmil was in the right race yesterday.
 
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Seems a bit simplistic to me, uncle goober.

So is David Pipe a rubbish trainer or is he training a yard full of rubbish horses IYO?

The answer for me would be neither.
 
No thats not my opinion. You wouldnt have to be out by much to run the whole yard in the wrong races. Slightly overestimating their ability or fitness or best trips can lead to wholesale defeats for weeks. So I am not saying he is a rubbish trainer, but its possible the horses arent great and its even more possible that they havent been placed very well.

My opinion is that this happens an awful lot, national hunt and flat. When such and such trainer isnt doing that great its usually because the horses have had their ability , fitness or trip-needs poorly estimated.

Obviously yards get 'viruses'. But I think people can be too quick to look for those rather than suggest to the horses owners that the horse isnt upto much or that they have repeatedly run them in the wrong races.

As with betting, the most likely reason for no winners is poor decisions. Harsh but true.
 
Saw some research on this a few years ago that went pretty close to saying the whole thing is over-estimated to the point where its almost irrelevant, apart from the very worst cases where illness appears to be the factor. It's probably easier to spot in jump racing given that horses are much more likely to PU, and this is a better indicator of lack of stable form than no winners when assessed as a percentage of runners. Otherwise the hupothesis ran along the line of results closely following the sequences that were thrown up by a random number generator, and even demonstrated that you could make money backing 'cold trainers' more than you can 'hot trainers' due to one being under bet and the over etc. There was something to do with 'freezing trainers' though
 
if a stable is sending out regular short priced losers it's pretty sure that there is something wrong with the horses...or the trainer

the market is a good guide to a horse's chance...so is a fair measure of whether horses are generally running to form or not
 
uncle goober said:
... I am not saying he is a rubbish trainer, but its possible the horses arent great and its even more possible that they havent been placed very well ... As with betting, the most likely reason for no winners is poor decisions. Harsh but true.
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I'm with you there, UG.
 
EC1 said:
if a stable is sending out regular short priced losers it's pretty sure that there is something wrong with the horses...or the trainer

the market is a good guide to a horse's chance...so is a fair measure of whether horses are generally running to form or not
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Pau Nicholls regularly sends out short priced losers.
 
I would say that having a number of short priced losers is no guide to a stable being out of form, as many of the bigger yards horses shouldnt have been favourite anyway.

It is worth remembering that every single trainer, including all your favourites, train more losers than winners, in most cases at least three times as many losers than winners.
 
It's hardly as simplistic though as 1) the horses are crap or 2) they're running in the wrong races or 3) they've got 'the virus'. As you well know UG, horses don't have to have 'the virus' to not be in good form - they can run disappointingly for whatever reason and even if most of the yard appears to be under a cloud, it doesn't necessarily follow that they have 'the virus', just that they're not in good form and happy in themselves, or have much confidence, for whatever reason - not dissimilar to the way that you're a miserable old bastard at times and in being so, also bring down those around you! :p
 
I don't have a fixed view on this question of stable form and I don't have any conclusive evidence one way or the other.

On the one hand what Warbler reports about "some research on this a few years ago that went pretty close to saying the whole thing is over-estimated to the point where its almost irrelevant" sounds perfectly plausible. Random events will throw up long losing sequences all on their own, as my betting records convincingly demonstrate. Anyone who has ever played card games will be familiar with the cycle of luck which gives you an alternation between nights where you get unbeatable hands and nights where you don't get to see a single royal portrait.

On the other hand, there is a concept of stable form that is less to do with cyclical fortunes and more to do with assessing the strength of their newcomers. Yards with one good juvenile very often have at least one other, even they are one of the smaller or less fashionable yards. Recent examples include Kevin Ryan in his breakthrough season (Amadeus Wolf and Palace Episode) and Tom Dascombe (Classic Blade and Firth of Fifth). And Carl Llewellyn had a lot of bumper winners in 2006-07 and 2007-08. Might it be that one good young horse in a yard helps to bring on the others? And that if a stable is showing good form in juvenile races it is a good indicator to how others from the same yard will perform?
 
Good points Grey. A lot of it too has to do with staff - staff relationships, relations with the trainer, staff morale etc etc. Horses do pick up on positive and negative 'vibes' which why when a yard starts winning it often goes on putting in the winners for no apparent reason.

... other factors can be a change of farrier, bedding, hay ( a poor batch of hay can wreak havoc ), different feed, an infestation of worms, who knows what? - there are so many factors at work. This muggy weather can affect some yards much more than others, according to whether they are in a valley which traps dank air, or on a hill

I'm sure it's right though that one good horse can bring on the others - you can only work your horses to the standard of your 'best' horse, after all; they have to something to gallop with
 
Totally crap weather in this part of Devon has meant all the yards I know round here have coughs and sniffs and horses are not at their best. The bloody midges are eating us all alive, not just animals but people too! I know gallops are all weather these days, or at least some of them but the water still makes them boggy.

Pipe shares our vet and there is a lot of talk there about the horses not being at their best, the pressure etc etc I gather that the vet is the only one happy about it - more money for them!

I like David Pipe and think he has talent, a different style to his Father sure, but will find his feet eventually and forge ahead. Sometimes winning the big race when you just begin is not a blessing.

It has to be dangerous relying on mostly one owner to fuel your yard, Paul Nicholls got lucky in having so many good woners so that if he fell out with one the yard did not really suffer. When Flagship Uberalles was moved it was sad, as you just knew he would get Champion Chase, but Paul never looked back and got Azertyuiop.
 
if you want a concrete way of knowing if a trainer is "in form"...if such a thing exists...you won't find one with what we have for info from the RP...i doubt a sure way is ever possible

I certainly would NOT be backing a trainer whose horses are currently consistently running below their market expectation...as a guide...it's a good one i find.

if a trainer sends out numerous short ones and they get beat then something is wrong..using the odds of chance in your favour

anyone happy to support a trainer who has had 20 recent losers..10 of them below 3/1?

if you are...I'd love to know how you judge trainerform without using actual results v expected results...and the odds..over time ..do reflect the chance of horses...thats fact..not fantasy
 
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just a small sample here...probably end up with egg on the face...but nevermind.

At the moment G Swinbank's NH horses are running below their odds...if you also look at previous Novemner's he has never really pulled up any trees either.

This year he has had 7 NH runners in November..none were big prices...3 were fav's..one was 4/6

the past says that November is a quiet month...his present figures also reflect that...so I would be happy to take on any short one's of his this month
 
Yep. Taking his trainer's page on the RP site shows 10 races. Turning the SPs into % chances (a little crude, but good enough for this illustration) and adding them all up gives you: 2.13; i.e. he should have that many winners. He actually had no winners. How bad is that? Binomial probability tells you that given a sample of 10 with a probability of a winner of .213, the chance of ending up with no winners is only around 9%.

(It's late, I've had half a bottle of wine, if I've screwed up those numbers it's not my fault :p)
 
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