Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2011

Gamla Stan

Gamla Stan

At the Start
Joined
Aug 19, 2005
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I couldn't see a thread for this race and I think it deserves it's own thread after today with plenty of other fringe topics about specific runners etc. I'm sure someone will berate me for not titling it properly or cluttering the forum with another needless thread but here goes... :)

Best prices as of today:

Workforce 9/2
Pour Moi 5/1
So You Think 8/1
Rewilding 10/1
St Nicholas Abbey 12/1
Sarafina 12/1
Baraan 14/1
Reliable Man 14/1
Golden Lilac 16/1
Galikova 16/1
Carlton House 16/1

I think the most likely winners on what we've seen this year are Workforce, Pour Moi or Rewilding so the 10/1 Rewilding makes some appeal. The GP De Paris will be interesting for Reliable Man but I wouldn't be rushing to take 14s until that is run as winners of that race don't have a history of immediately shortening too much as the King George has yet to be run by that point.

It's shaping up to be some race already.
 
I've got a little on SNA at 16s but it's a tough looking race to play in seriously ante-post. Apart from Pour Moi it's anyone's guess what route the main contenders will take to the race.
 
It did catch my eye but then I thought they may stick her to 1m2f and go for the Opera. Before the Diane they were worried she wouldn't even stay 1m2f.
 
I know but it seems an over reaction to have an unbeaten French filly at 16/1. The price more than compensates for the stamina doubts. Can any French trainer resist a crack at the Arc?
 
Gearoid said:
I know but it seems an over reaction to have an unbeaten French filly at 16/1. The price more than compensates for the stamina doubts. Can any French trainer resist a crack at the Arc?
Click to expand...

The trainer has Pour Moi plus a few other lightly raced colts lying around to be fair. All boils down the owners though I suspect, if she was mine I'd probably be ducking taking on this years crop of colts who look to be aimed at the race. Any idea what her next assignment is?
 
I don't have a clue to be honest. Pour Moi should go for the Arc and all that but the rest of the 3yo do nothing for me and I would not be afraid to back Golden Lilac against any of them. The older horses look strong but will all of St Nicholas Abbey, So You Think and Workforce show up at Longchamp? I doubt it.
 
They'll either give her a break and try her over 1m4f in the Vermeille or drop her back to a mile to give Goldikova a go in her Rothschild or Marois I would think.

Pour Moi is the best three year old colt and I'd love it if he took on Workforce and Rewilding in this race.

Isn't there a chance they'll want to send So You Think back for the Melbourne Cup? Would all but rule this race out if so.
 
My feeling is that So You Think was being aimed at the Arc all along and I'm not sure today changes anything. Should he really be 8/1?
 
If I had to have a go at pricing the race up tonight, I wouldn't have it far away from the above to be honest. I might shorten Rewilding, Sarafina and Reliable Man a bit and push St Nic Abbey and Galikova out but the market isn't enticing me to play at present and that's unusual, I normally find something sticking out around this time of year.

The GP De Paris will tell us more and if Baraan and Reliable Man are upto scratch.
 
I'd be very surprised if Golden Lilac didn't run in the Vermeille and then the Arc. She'll win both.
 
mister said:
reliable man runs in the king georges alain de royer dupre said
Click to expand...

Completely forgot about this, said something about more stud value which is obviously true. However, they're surely going to be put off after today?

Fair play to them if they still have a crack though.
 
Fame and Glory has been installed at 16/1 for this race.

Puts Golden Lilac's price into perspective as Gearoid mentions.
 
Golden Lilac is a miler, she should target races like the Astarte, Jacques Le Marois and Breeders Cup Mile.
 
Was Jim Bolger serious about sending Banimpire to the Arc? I know she's not good enough to win, but, after seeing her today she's become my new favourite horse and, as I'm going to the Arc this year I'm hoping I might see her there.
 
Sounds as if he has to run her all the time or she'd get too fat to go into the stalls; just eats and sleeps. Girl after my own heart.
 
I think Bolger said something like "I'd like to send her to the Arc for the Prix de l'Opera", which might have caused the confusion.
 
Given her campaign thus far it's probably not entirely out of the question that she will run in the Arc having prepped in the l'Opera...
 
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