Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2011

Although I always feel slightly more at ease being on the side of an older horse in the Arc (Workforce and Sarafina set the bar high), the best of the 3yos, especially those that are improving (as opposed to those taking in the race just because its an obvious end of season prize) are difficult to beat and Reliable Man and Nathaniel seem bound to run a big races.

However, an improving 3yo filly has a great technical edge in this and for that reason I’m being swayed to Galikova (8/1 with Coral). Sarafina must have great claims this season, but if anything is going to get her it may well be the younger filly.
 
Timeform's weight-adjusted ratings for the Arc

Arc - Timeform Ratings (weight-adjusted)
142 So You Think
141 Workforce
140 Snow Fairy
138 Sarafina
137p Sea Moon
137 Danedream
136 Nathaniel
135p Galikova
135 St Nicholas Abbey
133+ Nakayama Festa
133 Reliable Man
132 Meandre
131 Hiruno D'Amour
 
I love So You Think, but I think he's going to struggle to win the Arc. I'm not sure he's a 1m4f horse and I think the big field in the Arc might not help him.

I was impressed with Sarafina. She had every chance to bottle it at the weekend. I wonder does Galikova have the injection of pace to get herself out of trouble? Reliable Man could go well. As could Nathaniel. It's an open enough renewal I think and a lot depends on whether they all get there in good shape.

Something to look forward to.
 
The 11lb that the 3yo fillies get from older colts/horses at this time of year is huge (which of course is part of the reason that Sarafina did so well in this last year). I think Galikova will do at least as well as Sarafina did last time.
 
steve
dont know what happens with the wfa

Galikova has the form of the vermeill with an older horse and on that form Sarafina is clearly the better


Sarafina only can be stopped by an injury or a Lemaire ride.
 
SteveM said:
The 11lb that the 3yo fillies get from older colts/horses at this time of year is huge (which of course is part of the reason that Sarafina did so well in this last year). I think Galikova will do at least as well as Sarafina did last time.
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Where is the evidence for this?

Impossible to say this was the reason Sarafina ran well last year.
 
SteveM said:
The 11lb that the 3yo fillies get from older colts/horses at this time of year is huge
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I would have expected more 3yo fillies to have won the race if that were the case Steve - as it is, I can only see 1 3yo filly having won it in the past 29 years.

Of course, in the 10 years prior to that 8 fillies won - 4 3yos and 4 older. I suspect you might be having a moment of reminiscence in whipping this one out (matron).
 
SteveM said:
The 11lb that the 3yo fillies get from older colts/horses at this time of year is huge (which of course is part of the reason that Sarafina did so well in this last year). I think Galikova will do at least as well as Sarafina did last time.
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If she'd carried a couple pounds more but not been nearly knocked over she'd have won. The WFA argument is bogus and Simmo's correct, if it was excessive more 3yo fillies would have won the race.
 
Guv1612 said:
Be some training performance from Stoute to get Workforce to deliver again - big ask..
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Not sure it would, given the horse will have had around 16 weeks to recover from injury?
Doubtful he'd have been kept in training unless connections expected improvement on last year's form, and - his Ascot aberration aside - nothing he's done so far this season suggests he hasn't.
 
SYT being targeted at the Arc according to the RP

I think this year’s race is going to be one of the strongest for some time, but have been with Workforce all year so will not be switching now
 
Interesting. I didn't think he'd go for it. With, in addition to Sarafina, Workforce, SYT, Nathaniel, Reliable Man and Galikova all in single figures, it's fair to say 4s will have to become available on Sarafina pretty soon, if not 9/2.
 
thats good news
he will give her a good lead until 250yds out


So You think is a good horse but the Arc is a race with everything against, he has not been targeted for this especially, ground is a doubt, he is a 10f horse, style of running in a big field, also I think he is not good enough for Sarafina,
he will help us with the price,
 
You say the ground is a doubt for So You Think. What will the ground be? But doesn't he have winning form in Aus on soft, good to soft, placed in the Melbourbe Cup on soft and winning form here on good to firm.
 
What makes you suggest he's a good to firm ground horse when there is clear evidence in last year's Mackinnon and Cox Plate to refute that.
 
style of racing, action, australian horse,

I dont think gs is a problem for him to stop him winning in a weaker race but for the Arc he would need optimum conditions and will not have them

It is just an opinion
 
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