Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2011

Fair point on the French Derby, only just gone back to see how dire that form looks. However, Fabre always runs his best three year old colts in the GP De Paris.

So You Think has the beating of Workforce and although I do take a pinch of salt to comments, they've always said he's an Autumn horse but I wouldn't touch him at the prices.

Done it to death but Sarafina has done nothing to suggest she's in better form than last year when she came 3rd and went off 12s, backing her at 4s now before she faces Galikova and Testosterone in the Vermeille would be madness.

There's no value in the front four, they all are what they are and won't be much shorter on the day. The only value lies behind them in the hope that something that's suggested it's up to another step up in class can put a marker down. I feel Meandre and Galikova are the two that fit this category for me although as Martin mentions, Danedream would come into play if they supplement her.
 
Gearoid said:
Hamm, you're using the race to talk up Seville but talk down Meandre. Which is it?
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Okay, let me take this slowly for you. You clearly didnt read what i wrote.

I said Seville and TB went too quick, thereby setting the race up for Meandre.

Seville doesnt have a change of gears so stepping up in distance will suit -he is however no barometer at all for a race levels above the class of the Leger such as the Arc.
 
Gamla Stan said:
Done it to death but Sarafina has done nothing to suggest she's in better form than last year when she came 3rd and went off 12s, backing her at 4s now before she faces Galikova and Testosterone in the Vermeille would be madness.
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She may not need to be in better form given how you could argue she was almost the moral victor last year but in any event her Grand Prix De Saint Cloud victory, and the manner in which it occured, was most eye catching. And isn't she going for the Foy?
 
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To be honest I don't think it's possible for Seville to go too quick.
 
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Euronymous said:
She may not need to be in better form given how you could argue she was almost the moral victor last year but in any event her Grand Prix De Saint Cloud victory, and the manner in which it occured, was most eye catching. And isn't she going for the Foy?
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Still undecided I believe. My issue with her is the price, she's done nothing this season which warrants being favourite ahead of some of the horses below her in the betting.
 
Gamla Stan said:
Fair point on the French Derby, only just gone back to see how dire that form looks. However, Fabre always runs his best three year old colts in the GP De Paris.

So You Think has the beating of Workforce and although I do take a pinch of salt to comments, they've always said he's an Autumn horse but I wouldn't touch him at the prices.

Done it to death but Sarafina has done nothing to suggest she's in better form than last year when she came 3rd and went off 12s, backing her at 4s now before she faces Galikova and Testosterone in the Vermeille would be madness.

There's no value in the front four, they all are what they are and won't be much shorter on the day. The only value lies behind them in the hope that something that's suggested it's up to another step up in class can put a marker down. I feel Meandre and Galikova are the two that fit this category for me although as Martin mentions, Danedream would come into play if they supplement her.
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check Sarafina on the final bend:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CpV5BOj9VRw
 
Exactly. She lost a minimum of two lengths to Workforce after that incident, had to go wide and had to start her run sooner than would have been ideal. Her run at Saint Cloud suggests she retains all her ability - something that sadly cannot be said of last year's winner. She is a worthy favourite at this time.
 
I like Sarafina too. She is one of two I've backed so far. The other one is Fame And Glory (25/1 and 33/1). I think they'll finish together, within a length of each other. I'll wait to see the final line up before going in on anything else (perhaps Workforce again).
 
Sarafina runs in the Foy, only opposition is St Nicholas Abbey, Nakayama Festa and Hiruno D'Amour. Ain't going to learn a lot from that.
 
I really don't understand the massive hard on for Sarafina on this forum. I would want 10's before backing her.
 
Sarafina will probably be left a little short for this, so hopefully she runs a battling second or third off a slow pace, and drifts a couple of points.
 
That may be the case, but with only four runners you wouldn't want to see her too far off winning.
 
Fabre's yard has apparently come down with a virus, hence Golden Lilacs absence which is worrying for Meandre.
 
Fame folded completely in Ireland. Hope he's okay. Not heard anything.

Sarafina did okay though cementing her position at the head of the market. Travelling about yesterday/today so still catching up with news.
 
Not sure I can see where the value in the Arc is now. I’m already on Sarafina (and Fame), but if anything I’m less sure after the trials. Reliable Man has done nothing wrong and looks to be improving at the right time. I also really liked how Galikova won her trial. The chances of Nathaniel, Workforce and So You Think also look pretty solid. Perhaps Nathaniel (who I think has been underrated) sets the standard so far. Snow Fairy could also come into it. I’m not sure Sarafina’s win told us a lot. She quickened impressively and may be able to do the same off a faster pace. I’m glad I’m already on, but not sure I’d go in again now that she’s shortened up.

I'll wait for the day now and try to work out which one is most up for it in the meantime.
 
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