Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2012

Come the Arc, Camelot will have had just 1 run in the preceding 3 months, which is hardly over-raced - as Arc winners go?
For mine, AO'B will tell us how close to the truth the hype is; if he develops some mysterious injury, not very; if he runs again - anywhere - doubters, watch out.
 
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Being lightly raced is one thing but to have a horse ready for the Guineas means the horse has been on the go for a long time and has a had long hard season already. He doesn't look particularly stout to me, quite the opposite,he's quite sparely made, and reminds me physically of Roderic o'Connor. His form is tailing off already as he's a bit better than his leger run. He won't turn up at Longchamp as if he does he'll he get ate but they won't make that mistake anyway.
 
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Euronymous said:
The allowance is built into the ratings.

There is no chance of all the horses Bar mentioned running to their ratings. The history of the Arc is choc full of horses running below their best due to heavy summer campaigns.
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3yos also tend to improve on their best previous rating in the Arc (STS the exception), so 128 going into the race for a 3yo would almost certainly see a placed effort and have a good chance of winning.
 
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davidjohnson said:
I wrote a piece on betting.betfair after the Arc Trials, these were the top Timeform weight-adjusted ratings.

Timeform adjusted ratings for Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe
143 - Danedream
140 - Orfevre, Snow Fairy
138 - Nathaniel
137 - Camelot, St Nicholas Abbey, Sea Moon
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Thanks David. As top rated 3yo Camelot must have a hell of a chance if he is ready to show his form. We should also bear in mind that 3yos like Masterstroke may have something to find on the figures, but have the advantage of being set out for a back end campaign. Assuming he takes part he can be expected to leave his current rating well behind.

Danedream went into the race on an RPR of 124 last season and ran to 128. Shareta went into the race on 116 and ran to 120 as runner-up. If Camelot runs to his best off 128 or improves he’ll take some beating.
 
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SteveM said:
3yos also tend to improve on their best previous rating in the Arc (STS the exception), so 128 going into the race for a 3yo would almost certainly see a placed effort and have a good chance of winning.
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do you have figures to back this up?
 
I've illustrated it by giving last year's winner and runner-up (who both improved 4lb in the race).

It is also something I've noted in the past (as I say it is worth remarking when it is not the case, as in STS).

It also stands to reason that if an unexposed 3yo, who hasn't had to run to its limit before, is to win the Arc it will need to improve on its extant rating. Consequently they tend to improve. It seems to me a no-brainer, but if you like I'll try to find the time to check other 3yo winners of the race. My time if fairly limited these days though.
 
Euronymous said:
Zarkava had your typical Arc prep


Rail Link and Hurricane Run. See Zarkava
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Camelot's season hasn't been unlike the one's you mention as having a typical Arc prep.

Zarkava, three early season runs, last one 8/6, one Sept run

Rail Link, five early season runs, last one 14/7, one Sept run

Hurrican Run, four early season runs, last one 26/6, one Sept run

Camelot, three early season runs, last one 30/6, one Sept run


I'm not saying that he'll win it, but he could be regarded as having had a more typical Arc prep than most of Ballydoyle's runners.
 
Camelot looks to me to not like being put under pressure..temperament issues...i can't see a horse like that winning a race like the Arc where those that will be in the first 4 will all find under pressure.

add to that he has a good few lbs to find on form...near on half a stone with the best in race.

as in the Leger..a massive lay imo
 
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Lester 25 yrs ago was retired and facing a spell in prison.( just being pedantic:whistle:)
Jockey may be immaterial but not to Ballydoyle. I cannot see Camelot running without Joseph on. I hope I am wrong. I cannot imagine anyone else having ridden him all year at home, but I have no proof.
 
EC1 said:
if Lester from 25 years ago rode him he wouldn't win it..imo.
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Why not?... Since Camelot has already run to the same mark that Danedream ran to in actually winning the Arc, I can’t see where the notion that he’s not good enough comes from.
 
If he'd had a nice gentle run in the Prix Niel rather than a hard race in the Leger and if Orfevre wasn't in the race I'd give him half a chance. But like SNA and So You Think and High Chaparral and Duke of Marmalade before him he's hardly had the prep for it. Unless he has the constitution of Dylan Thomas he has no chance.
 
the figures are not comparable, german figures in the RP are most of the times a joke.

the profile of 3yo winning the Arc is a one improving ( something Camelot is not doing) trained for the race, with a trial (Camelot didnt have the Leger as trial , it WAS his target).

I dont see any reason for Camelot running higher to 125 and in this eddition you will need a 130.

Finally
not all the 3yo improves through teh season, he was fully fit in May for the Guineas.


I dont think he will run but if doing it I dont see him beating the older horses
 
Sheikh made that point earlier. Any horse trained for a guineas will have had a very different prep to most of those above with the exception of STS and Zarkava who are two of the best we've seen this millenium.
 
Euronymous said:
If he'd had a nice gentle run in the Prix Niel rather than a hard race in the Leger and if Orfevre wasn't in the race I'd give him half a chance. But like SNA and So You Think and High Chaparral and Duke of Marmalade before him he's hardly had the prep for it. Unless he has the constitution of Dylan Thomas he has no chance.
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Dylan Thomas was a 133-135 horse and didnt need to be in the form of the King George to win that Arc.
 
Euronymous said:
If he'd had a nice gentle run in the Prix Niel rather than a hard race in the Leger.
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I don't think he did have a hard race in the Leger. Due to the jockey not riding him how he needed to be ridden in that affair and moreover giving him a bad ride, and the subsequent doss about he was made to endure, I think The Arc will be fine for him.

People can talk about ratings all day long, Timeform included. As with most three year olds running in Europes premier 1M4F event, he'll need to put up a career best to win it by a conclusive margin.

So what? How can you be sure he won't step up to the mark at Longchamp?

As for constituion, I think winning a Guineas and Derby suggests he has a fair bit of that.
 
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Marble said:
So what? How can you be sure he won't step up to the mark at Longchamp?

As for constituion, I think winning a Guineas and Derby suggests he has a fair bit of that.
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You can never be sure. But his odds are terrible. He deserves plaudits for his wins, but he has never bested a Group 1 animal. And the Arc will be choc full of them.
 
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