Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2012

A horse that will win neither race.
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True He wont win the leger now thats for sure :)

But you are right, can someone start pointing up the jap horse and bit more? pros and cons? I am too lazy/busy to look
 
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I can give you the negatives for the japanesse horse

a bad draw in a 20 field
quirky type, some atittude problems
and heavy ground is also a doubt


other than that I dont see him beaten
 
Hamm said:
Obviously 3yo winners of the Arc will have improved because they haven't had a chance to run against such highly rated horses!

It is like breaking out the revelation that the sky is blue.
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This is exactly what I said earlier to you that it was a no-brainer. It's not a revelation, but you asked me if I could support this. STS is the exception of winning Arc 3yos (in running to a lower rating) since Lammtarra in 1995.
 
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Yes. Ruled out for the season this morning.

Couldn't have seen her winning anyway but shame she won't be able to take in other big worldwide races again.
 
...he's just about the most likely winner by my reckoning. The older horses are a decent standard but beatable.
 
SteveM said:
...he's just about the most likely winner by my reckoning. The older horses are a decent standard but beatable.
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i really hope he runs. as said above he'll make the market.

i'd be surprised if he won. without going into the whole 3 year old debate i feel as though this race is an afterthought and ballydoyle are desperately trying to repair the damage from his st leger defeat. and don't leger horses have bad record in the arc anyway?
 
JamesRB said:
i really hope he runs. as said above he'll make the market.

i'd be surprised if he won. without going into the whole 3 year old debate i feel as though this race is an afterthought and ballydoyle are desperately trying to repair the damage from his st leger defeat. and don't leger horses have bad record in the arc anyway?
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Hi James... the Arc was an early season long-term objective for him, but after the Guineas and Derby I believe they were right to have a go at the Leger. (my contention is that tactics rather than ability got him beat there). So you’re right that was a departure from his schedule. Had he gone straight for the Arc from the Irish Derby I would have been a little more confident of his chances in this, but I still feel he has a fine chance.

Of the 3yos Camelot is the likeliest winner on what we’ve seen, if he has come out of the St Leger in decent shape (and it appears he has). Masterstroke has been laid out for a backend campaign but would need to show a big improvement. Although I expect to see improvement it’s testing faith that it will be enough. Imperial Monarch could be interesting (if taking part) and I’m also sifting through the 3yo fillies that are likely to take part.

You say you don’t want to get into the 3yo debate, but for a moment consider... prior to 1995 it was a pretty even split between three-year-olds and older horses. In the period 1970 to 1994 12 three-year-olds and 13 older horses won the race. We might have concluded the wfa differential was about right (assuming we want to give three-year-olds a concession in championship races in the first place).

In 1995 the Northern Hemisphere allowance was raised to 8lb (11lb for three-year-old fillies) for three-year-olds over 12 furlongs. Lammtarra took full advantage of the increased differential and there has been a veritable landslide of three-year-old winners getting in on the act since. No less than 14 three-year-olds have won since 1995 and just three older horses.
If ever the older horses are going to win it should be this year (Camelot aside) - of the older horses don't forget SNA - but I still won’t be surprised if one of the 3yos turns up for it.
 
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This is quite simple for me
the horse lacks the speed to beat Encke in a St Leger,
the Arc should be a mountain too high to climb for him.

I doubt he cant beat a Shareta or Menadre , let alone the top ones.

If he is favorite I will be forced to back the japanese horse again and could be quite good for the exactas with Danedream and Nathaniel
 
SteveM said:
Hi James... the Arc was an early season long-term objective for him, but after the Guineas and Derby I believe they were right to have a go at the Leger. (my contention is that tactics rather than ability got him beat there). So you’re right that was a departure from his schedule. Had he gone straight for the Arc from the Irish Derby I would have been a little more confident of his chances in this, but I still feel he has a fine chance.

Of the 3yos Camelot is the likeliest winner on what we’ve seen, if he has come out of the St Leger in decent shape (and it appears he has). Masterstroke has been laid out for a backend campaign but would need to show a big improvement. Although I expect to see improvement it’s testing faith that it will be enough. Imperial Monarch could be interesting (if taking part) and I’m also sifting through the 3yo fillies that are likely to take part.

You say you don’t want to get into the 3yo debate, but for a moment consider... prior to 1995 it was a pretty even split between three-year-olds and older horses. In the period 1970 to 1994 12 three-year-olds and 13 older horses won the race. We might have concluded the wfa differential was about right (assuming we want to give three-year-olds a concession in championship races in the first place).

In 1995 the Northern Hemisphere allowance was raised to 8lb (11lb for three-year-old fillies) for three-year-olds over 12 furlongs. Lammtarra took full advantage of the increased differential and there has been a veritable landslide of three-year-old winners getting in on the act since. No less than 14 three-year-olds have won since 1995 and just three older horses.
If ever the older horses are going to win it should be this year (Camelot aside) - of the older horses don't forget SNA - but I still won’t be surprised if one of the 3yos turns up for it.
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regarding the 3yo debate i wasn't really talking about 3yo's vs the older horses historically in this race. more that this years 3 year old crop seem to be very below average but i'm not saying anything that hasn't been said before with that.

i really hope he takes part and if he wins i'd be happy for ballydoyle as they were very sporting going for the triple crown with him and it was a shame they didn't achieve it. but in terms of betting on the race i hope this plumps up the price of some others i have my eye on.
 
in fact
going to the Leger can not be called sporting for me
they went for the easy race and had avoid Frankel and the top horses

it is going to be interesting to see how the horse run against 8 or 9 gr1 winners and with horses rated higher than 120


about the trends
the last 2 making the double in the same season of Guineas and Arc were DAncing BRave and Sea The Stars
last 3 horses winning Derby and Arc were Lammtarra, Sea The Stars and Workforce.


The record of Obrien is not quite good in this race either
 
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Let me be very clear about my opinion on this.

Camelot will not finish in the first 5. The 3yo generation are absolute garbage. Ryan Moore will ride because Joesph is struggling so badly with his weight.


.
 
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SlimChance said:
Let me be very clear about my opinion on this.

Camelot will not finish in the first 5. The 3yo generation are absolute garbage. Ryan Moore will ride because Joesph is struggling so badly with his weight.


.
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This race has become match bet city.
 
SlimChance said:
Let me be very clear about my opinion on this.

Camelot will not finish in the first 5. The 3yo generation are absolute garbage.
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Even if a generation is poor overall (although things like the weather would have contributed to the younger horses especially not showing their best), it doesn't mean an individual is.
 
SteveM said:
Even if a generation is poor overall (although things like the weather would have contributed to the younger horses especially not showing their best), it doesn't mean an individual is.
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Camelot's got nothing in the formbook to win an Arc.
 
SlimChance said:
Camelot's got nothing in the formbook to win an Arc.
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Remember if he runs to form (his rating of 128) it will take the best Arc ever to keep him out of the frame.

Also, now that I’ve been good enough to explain in detail to all at Ballydoyle where they went wrong in the Leger they are all set for a famous win.

...as usual, Aidan has conveyed his profound gratitude.:cool:
 
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