Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2012

Here are the 14 past 3yo winners (the Northern Hemisphere allowance was raised to 8lb (11lb for three-year-old fillies) in 1995, for three-year-olds over 12 furlongs). The table shows the RPRs going into the race and in the race.

Rating going into Arc Rating in Arc
2012 Camelot 128 ?
2011 Danedream 124 128
2010 Workforce 129 130
2009 Sea The Stars 138 132
2008 Zarkava 124 129
2007 4yo - -
2006 Rail Link 121 128
2005 Hurricane Run 126 133
2004 Bago 123 129
2003 Dalakhani 126 134
2002 5yo - -
2001 4yo - -
2000 Sinndar 128 130
1999 Montjeu 133 136
1998 Sagamix 123 126
1997 Peintre Celebre 125 137
1996 Helissio 121 134
1995 Lammtarra 124 129

13 of the 14 ran to a higher rating in the Arc than they were on previously (STS is the exception). Camelot goes into the race on a higher rating than 10 of them. Indeed the mark he has already run to would have won him three of them. The ratings of the placed horses are a good bit lower (in fact Camelot would have been placed in all of these races if he had run to what he has already run to). Why is Camelot not good enough to be placed again?
 
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Looking at last year, I see the following horses who did not improve on their best RPR:

Masked Marvel
Relialble Man
Treasure Beach
Testosterone
Galikova
Meandre

And only Shareta and Danedream improved.

So look at it this way...25% of 3yo horses improved on their best RPR of the season in the Arc last season.


In the previous season, the following horses didn't improve on their top RPR of the seaon in the Arc:

Midas Touch
Cape Blanco
Lope de Vega
Planteur
Victoire Pisa
Bekhabad

And two did....Workforce and Sarafina.

So once again.....25% of 3yo horses improved on their top RPR in the Arc.
 
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Bar the Bull said:
But why are you looking at winners?

When you are trying to ascertain whether Camelot will improve on his RPR, why do you look at previous winners of the race?
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I'm not trying to ascertain whether Camelot will improve on his RPR (that is unknowable), I'm looking at winners (and the placed horses) to refute the assertion that Camelot is not good enough to be placed. He would have been placed in all 14 of these races if he ran to what he has already achieved (128). I also suspect 128 is good enough to get him placed in just about any Arc. Ergo he is good enough to be placed, whether he will be or not... being good enough is not the issue.
 
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There are shitloads of Zambezi Suns, Fame and Glories and Soldier of Fortunes for every Rail Link.
 
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Euronymous said:
There are shitloads of Zambezi Suns, Fame and Glories and Soldier of Fortunes for every Rail Link.
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Yes there are, but again the contention was that he is not good enough to be placed in the Arc and will need to improve. On what he has already achieved he is already good enough to be placed in any Arc. This of course doesn't mean he will be, but adequately refutes the assertion that he is not good enough.
 
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The French trained 3yos produced the biggest improvement, because they are laid out for the race all season
 
steve

so Camelot is a better horse than Dalkhani, Lammtarra, Peintre Celebre and Helissio were coming to the Arc........
very serious handicapping.......:lol:
 
I'm surprised more hasn't been made of Camelots attitude..he has clearly hated being put under pressure in the last two runs

also..it took him an age to get going in the Leger..the winner looked the mile..mile and a half horse and Camelot looked the plodder..you need to be speedier than Encke to win an Arc with that downhill run to the straight there
 
Made the point myself EC. Can go on about ratings all day long but if he's gone a bit (and signs arent good as you say), thats all irrelevant.
 
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And he had tons of scope with hardly any mileage on the clock.

I see Cirrus Des Aigles is an intended runner in the Prix Dollar on the same card. Such a shame geldings can't take part in the race. Imagine the current field with that horse and Frankel in it. Would be a m a z i n g.
 
In the last fourteen days Ballydoyle are 1 win from 30 runs so perhaps Camelot wasn't at his best at Doncaster, but it is a poor run of form that wouldn't encourage me to back any Ballydoyle horse at Longchamp.
 
sunybay said:
steve

so Camelot is a better horse than Dalkhani, Lammtarra, Peintre Celebre and Helissio were coming to the Arc........
very serious handicapping.......:lol:
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Well clearly on the ratings as to what he has achieved to this point yes. Camelot of course hasn’t run in the Arc yet, so we don’t know what his subsequent form looks like compared to these others, it may prove not up to what they subsequently achieved in the Arc, but we shouldn’t deny him the chance to try. He has still manifestly proved that he is up to being placed in an Arc (indeed in virtually any Arc) on what he has already done. You said he wasn’t good enough to do this but the figures speak for themselves... You still don't seem to get it.
 
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I agree the stable form or i should say lack of form is probably one big obstacle for camelot to overcome and whatever the reason is i cant see them turning it around in the next 10 days.

their lack of form may have been more of the reason for camelots defeat in the leger than the ride it was given
 
clivex said:
Made the point myself EC. Can go on about ratings all day long but if he's gone a bit (and signs arent good as you say), thats all irrelevant.
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I agree with this. If he has gone the ratings are irrelevant. Nevertheless if he reproduces his form he is well up to figuring in the race.
 
Steve, you seem to be missing 2 rather fundamental points:

1. Your assertion that 3yos tend to improve in the Arc has been shown to be statistically incorrect in terms of whether they are likely to improve
2. Camelot has clearly been hugely overrated, and his 128 can be easily dismissed as wrong. He has yet to beat even a half decent horse, and the 128 is clearly ratings folk gone mad.

More importantly, I agree with EC and Clivex.
 
Hamm said:
Steve, you seem to be missing 2 rather fundamental points:

1. Your assertion that 3yos tend to improve in the Arc has been shown to be statistically incorrect in terms of whether they are likely to improve
2. Camelot has clearly been hugely overrated, and his 128 can be easily dismissed as wrong. He has yet to beat even a half decent horse, and the 128 is clearly ratings folk gone mad.

More importantly, I agree with EC and Clivex.
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...good for you.

I was talking about 3yo winners of the Arc improving their rating not all 3yo runners btw.

If you believe they have got the rating wrong on Camelot but right for all the others you should act accordingly.
 
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Obviously 3yo winners of the Arc will have improved because they haven't had a chance to run against such highly rated horses!

It is like breaking out the revelation that the sky is blue.
 
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This is getting boring now. The two hottest topics on here are this one and the St Leger discussion and they both revolve around one horse. A horse that will win neither race.
 
SteveM said:
Well clearly on the ratings as to what he has achieved to this point yes. Camelot of course hasn’t run in the Arc yet, so we don’t know what his subsequent form looks like compared to these others, it may prove not up to what they subsequently achieved in the Arc, but we shouldn’t deny him the chance to try. He has still manifestly proved that he is up to being placed in an Arc (indeed in virtually any Arc) on what he has already done. You said he wasn’t good enough to do this but the figures speak for themselves... You still don't seem to get it.
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What I get is that you read RPR figures well
if you think beating Astrology and Trumpet and Born To Sea is better form than Dalkhani in the French Derby or when being beaten a controversial ride in the IRish Derby with the winner beating a top class field in the King Goerge on next outing.
Its Ok for me
 
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