Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2012

Excellent summing up suny. I'm all-in on Orfevre and have covered on Danedream but Snow Fairy does hold the latter on form this year and is the only fly in the ointment.

I think Sea Moon could place at a big price. Don't know why he hasn't run since the King George.
 
Very good write-up, Suny, I followed your original pointer to Orfevre and am pleased with how he ran today. Snow Fairy was very good last weekend but her best trip seems to be 10f, and, as you say Danedream doesn't seem to be as good as last year. The danger, and the one for the forecast, could be Saonois. He quickened very nicely through a narrow gap today and it's hard to know how much more he's got.

You make an interesting point about the counter attractions of Champions Day for horses from stables in contention for the trainers' title.
 
Great write up Suny; there must be no night life in Madrid!
Harry Sweeney in Irish Field yesterday wrote about the 2 sides of Orferve; the one that runs and the one that sulks. However the Soumillon booking may make the horses mind up. Not worried that Sea Moon has not run since King George, Workforce had a summer break also and that is the traditional British way. Stoute lack of form a worry but he has a link with Prix Foy form.
Well done on all your posts here.
 
Euronymous said:
Excellent summing up suny. I'm all-in on Orfevre and have covered on Danedream but Snow Fairy does hold the latter on form this year and is the only fly in the ointment.

I think Sea Moon could place at a big price. Don't know why he hasn't run since the King George.
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Sea Moon probably misses the race for Canada instead I believe.

Orfevre wins this for me. I'm on at lovely prices though and that's a recipe for disaster usually. Danedream the only one who can touch him although can see Saonois running a big one, also can see Segal putting him up on Tuesday so worth taking 10 before tomorrow evening.
 
Gamla Stan said:
Orfevre wins this for me. I'm on at lovely prices though and that's a recipe for disaster usually. Danedream the only one who can touch him although can see Saonois running a big one, also can see Segal putting him up on Tuesday so worth taking 10 before tomorrow evening.
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Why is he picking again, he's already selected Masterstroke?
 
Has Camelot been pulled from this race then? I haven't seen anything to that effect but it seems like its a given on here......
 
The vast majority of bookmakers haven't got him in their lists anymore.

It's an afterthought if they do take him there and with his trainer having such a poor record in the race they surely aren't daft enough. He'd be far better off in the Champion Stakes for all that Frankel would eat him alive.
 
Euronymous said:
The vast majority of bookmakers haven't got him in their lists anymore.

It's an afterthought if they do take him there and with his trainer having such a poor record in the race they surely aren't daft enough. He'd be far better off in the Champion Stakes for all that Frankel would eat him alive.
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I've said that for a while. Makes more sense in planning terms and now he's been beaten in the Leger why not have a go...

I backed Orfevre at 13.5 on the machine for this a little while ago so i'm going to stick with that but I might have a few quid on this Saonais. If this horse was trained by Fabre and owned by a leading owner it would be favourite or at least single figure odds. He showed he stayed, handles the track and has the turn of foot you need in an Arc so looks a real player to me.
 
Euronymous said:
The vast majority of bookmakers haven't got him in their lists anymore.

It's an afterthought if they do take him there and with his trainer having such a poor record in the race they surely aren't daft enough. He'd be far better off in the Champion Stakes for all that Frankel would eat him alive.
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You're right. He'd not finish in the first 5 of the Arc.
 
Aragorn said:
I backed Orfevre at 13.5 on the machine for this a little while ago so i'm going to stick with that but I might have a few quid on this Saonais. If this horse was trained by Fabre and owned by a leading owner it would be favourite or at least single figure odds. He showed he stayed, handles the track and has the turn of foot you need in an Arc so looks a real player to me.
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It's obvious that Pricewise will pick Saonais or Shareta but having thought about it this morning, will Saonais really go off any shorter on the day than 10s?

Also have to factor in the potential Japanese tote impact on the PMU.
 
Saonais does look the obvious pick. He's unexposed over this sort of test and won nicely yesterday.

As good as Shareta is she hardly demolished The Fugue and Was at York and doesn't look good enough. Better older fillies than her haven't run as well in the race as 4yo's as they did in their classic seasons.
 
Shareta's time was six seconds quicker than Saonois and five quicker than Orfevre...

She's had a couple of hard races now and so not for me; even if she was quite impressive yesterday.
 
Gamla Stan said:
It's obvious that Pricewise will pick Saonais or Shareta but having thought about it this morning, will Saonais really go off any shorter on the day than 10s?

Also have to factor in the potential Japanese tote impact on the PMU.
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No bigger than 10's at the moment.
 
Superb work as usual Suny - anyone of you app boys know what Tom the bomb has picked as his Arc... has to be either Shareta or Saonois
 
How many more years before the stats boys get sick of backing short-priced French-trained 3-y-os with no form? It's a while since the Arc was the goldmine for them it once was.
 
davidjohnson said:
How many more years before the stats boys get sick of backing short-priced French-trained 3-y-os with no form? It's a while since the Arc was the goldmine for them it once was.
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:lol:

Do think Saonais has a squeak myself but when thinking about it, he'll be bigger than 10s on the day.
 
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