Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2012

[SteveM]

I can only repeat what I said previously:

PRIOR TO 1995 it was a pretty even split between three-year-olds and older horses as to who won the Arc. In the period 1970 to 1994 12 three-year-olds and 13 older horses won the race. We might have concluded the weight-for-age differential was about right (assuming we want to give three-year-olds a concession in championship races in the first place).

In 1995 the Northern Hemisphere allowance was raised to 8lb (11lb for three-year-old fillies) for three-year-olds over 12 furlongs. Lammtarra took full advantage of the increased differential and there has been a veritable landslide of three-year-old winners getting in on the act since. No less than 14 three-year-olds have won since 1995 and just three older horses.

I see this as more than a "blip" however you want to dress it up. Like I say, if an older horse doesn't win this time when all of the 3yos are "useless" perhaps they never will. Good luck with it anyway.

 

[EC1]

i've assumed they changed the wfa by 3lbs..its only a 1lb isn't it?

ffs

bloody hell i thought it were 3

1lb difference?????

you really think thats made a difference Steve?..really?

 

[SteveM]

i've assumed they changed the wfa by 3lbs..its only a 1lb isn't it?

ffs

bloody hell i thought it were 3

1lb difference?????

you really think thats made a difference Steve?..really?

I do... it has. It has tipped the balance and 3yos are being aggressively targeted at the race to take advantage of it..

 

[EC1]

Ah fer fecks sakes.... Do we have to?!!

aye..we'll be done now though

 

[sunybay]

the wfa is not the same if the run is race on Oct 7th and Oct 1st.....

 

[EC1]

I do... it has.

you haven't explained the other golden periods..just ignored the question

and if its only a 1b you can add some more 3yo winners to the 9 i think...so how come even after removing the lb from the results we still have a high % of 3yo winners

your theory is extremely flawed imo

 

[EC1]

the wfa is not the same if the run is race on Oct 7th and Oct 1st.....

the wfa has been 7lbs for donkeys years hasn't it?..its now 8lb

 

[Euronymous]

1lb difference?????

you really think thats made a difference Steve?..really?

User Friendly would have beaten Subotica.

White Muzzle might have beaten Urban Sea but that horse was mainly beaten by a terrible ride.

Equally though the reason the likes of Hellisio, Montjeu, Bago and Hurricane Run failed to win again was more down to the busier campaigns they had as 4yo's than the wfa. Bago though was unlucky in that he had your typical wide draw crappy ride.

In 1989 neither Nashwan nor Old Vic ran in the race.

In 1988 the 3yos were as bad as they are this year and Unfuwain was only 4th. Admittedly not beaten far.

Slip Anchor and Oh So Sharp didn't run in 1985.

 

[SteveM]

In the same way 5yo winners of the Arkle are less likely since they lost their 5lb allowance. There is a double whammy that: 1) they haven’t got 5lb taken off their backs; 2) they are discouraged from trying.

Changes in the dynamics of any race affects the results.

 

[Euronymous]

5lbs over two miles makes a lot of difference. Poor old Monet's Garden.

 

[SteveM]

you haven't explained the other golden periods..just ignored the question

and if its only a 1b you can add some more 3yo winners to the 9 i think...so how come even after removing the lb from the results we still have a high % of 3yo winners

your theory is extremely flawed imo

I haven't checked the weight differentials during those periods. The wfa scale moves about according to vagaries of policy, time of season, distance of race, etc.

And it's not a theory it's called observing a trend. It's not simply the change in weight itself but everything that comes with it to change the dynamics of a race.

 

[SteveM]

5lbs over two miles makes a lot of difference. Poor old Monet's Garden.

Indeed it does.

 

[EC1]

you would have spotted same trend in 1972..then look what happened

how many arcs since lammtarra would an older horse have won with that full 1lb given back then Steve?

i'm sorry but anyone that believes that 1lb has changed the history of the arc is having themselves on

 

[Euronymous]

how many arcs since lammtarra would an older horse have won with that full 1lb given back then Steve?

Nakayama Festa, Pride and El Condor Pasa in theory.

 

[EC1]

There are none quite as blind as those that will not see Barry. The older horses have a great chance this year so you might get lucky, but I wouldn’t bank on it. I know where I am on it.

what kind of an answer is that?..just fudge and waffle

..the obvious conclusion is the older horses aren't good enough...historically the race has never been a good one for back to back winners either..nothing to do with weight..its just a hard race to win..simple as that

if you just going to trot out same stuff Steve there is no point..you don't have an argument that holds a drop of water from what i can see

 

[EC1]

Nakayama Festa, Pride and El Condor Pasa in theory.

thats 6 from 17 for the older brigade under the old wfa then..which is just below the average for an older horse in the Arc taken over time.

 

[SteveM]

you would have spotted same trend in 1972..then look what happened

how many arcs since lammtarra would an older horse have won with that full 1lb given back then Steve?

i'm sorry but anyone that believes that 1lb has changed the history of the arc is having themselves on

I’ll say it one more time. This is not theoretical. It has made a difference in the real world. We should then look to see why it has made a difference. It is not simply that the 3yos have a 1lb less and the older horses need to find a 1lb more, but the attitude of those looking to exploit the shift. This combined has made the difference.

 

[SteveM]

if you just going to trot out same stuff Steve there is no point..you don't have an argument that holds a drop of water from what i can see

...you see my problem also. That's what I'm getting from you. I suggest we each stick with what we know and see how it works out for us.

 

[EC1]

I’ll say it one more time. This is not theoretical. It has made a difference in the real world. We should then look to see why it has made a difference. It is not simply that the 3yos have a 1lb less and the older horses need to find a 1lb more, but the attitude of those looking to exploit the shift. This combined has made the difference.

you think without that lb that 3yo's that have won would not have run in the race..because of 1lb?

i really can't see anyone rerouting to the Arc..just to take advantage of a lb tbh

if you believe then then there isn't any more to say..i just can't see it and never will

 

[SteveM]

..the obvious conclusion is the older horses aren't good enough...

...of course in relative terms they are inferior if they are losing, because of a change in the dynamics of a race... it really isn't rocket science is it.

 

[EC1]

...you see my problem also. That's what I'm getting from you. I suggest we each stick with what we know and see how it works out for us.

no it isn't..i try to put some facts behind my points..you just generalise..and then you just ignore the bits you can't answer..like the 59-72 hammering the 3yo's gave the older horses

 

[SteveM]

EC1

if you believe then then there isn't any more to say..i just can't see it and never will

Good luck anyway.

 

[Euronymous]

The typical French 3yo prep for an Arc. When did that start? I bet it was quite recent.

 

[SteveM]

no it isn't..i try to put some facts behind my points..you just generalise..and then you just ignore the bits you can't answer..like the 59-72 hammering the 3yo's gave the older horses

I've taken the trouble to put facts before you. I haven't explored the weight differentials in those other periods (and neither have you) so am not equipped to comment on those.

I’ve looked at the period from 1970 to 1994 and from 1995 to now. You weren’t even aware there had been a change so don’t kid me you are clued up on these other periods.

I'm happy to proceed with what I've gleaned from this. You clearly aren't.

As I say good luck with it.

 

[EC1]

I've taken the trouble to put facts before you. I haven't explored the weight differentials in those other periods (and neither have you) so am not equipped to comment on those.

I’ve looked at the period from 1970 to 1994 and from 1995 to now. You weren’t even aware there had been a change so don’t kid me you are clued up on these other periods.

i was aware there had been a change..i thought it was 3lb initially..especially with all the fuss you have kicked up about it...i haven't tried to kid you about anything..i've allowed for the full lb in the last 17 years and it doesn't show me its changing the race to the degree you say it does each year we talk about it

if there had been any significant weight change i'm sure there would be something written about it somewhere...i thought the wfa had been very similar from the year dot hasn't it?

I don't think 1lb is a significant change when in most years the 3yo's beat the older horses by lots more than 1lb compared to years gone by.