Yes it hardly needed RUK to put this one out of its misery. More than likely deliberate on Isabel's part and not to be condoned. You would have to have been a fool to believe it though, Cologne is shut down.
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Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2012
- Thread starter Euronymous
- Start date
Yes it hardly needed RUK to put this one out of its misery. More than likely deliberate on Isabel's part and not to be condoned. You would have to have been a fool to believe it though, Cologne is shut down.
Frankie on Camelot: http://www.racinguk.com/news/article/14179/dettori-to-ride-camelot-in-arc
EC1
On a break
are you doing a u turn on the wfa then Steve?
because if the allowance is too much and gives a 3yo an edge then whats up with young O'Brien putting up a few lbs over.
looks like the connections don't think the wfa is much of an advantage if they are so keen to have him carry the correct weight
because if the allowance is too much and gives a 3yo an edge then whats up with young O'Brien putting up a few lbs over.
looks like the connections don't think the wfa is much of an advantage if they are so keen to have him carry the correct weight
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EC1
On a break
not sure..who is it?
Bar the Bull
At the Start
Last I remember is Olivier Peslier on Goldikova at Ascot.
EC1
On a break
i can't see the problem with it in the Arc..with many people believing 3yo's hold a large weight advantage anyway i'd have thought the decision not to use the lad would have had the wfa lads screaming
On The Bridle
At the Start
EC1
On a break
it had to be done
...seems they are going to a lot of trouble to overcome a problem that many people believe doesn't exist in the Arc..with that massive gimme 3yo's get
...seems they are going to a lot of trouble to overcome a problem that many people believe doesn't exist in the Arc..with that massive gimme 3yo's get
are you doing a u turn on the wfa then Steve?
because if the allowance is too much and gives a 3yo an edge then whats up with young O'Brien putting up a few lbs over.
looks like the connections don't think the wfa is much of an advantage if they are so keen to have him carry the correct weight
You're of course forgetting that at least some of the connections are not sure if Joseph is sleep walking.And of course they would want to give him every advantage. He's not a certainty but simply just about the most likely.
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btw Ladbrokes is quoting dead horses... Valyra on offer at 12/1 on screen in my local shop today. I know they are on a drive to maximise profit, but this is a bit off.
Couldn't get a matched market out of them, but on the upside Camelot might be in the top three now ;-)
Couldn't get a matched market out of them, but on the upside Camelot might be in the top three now ;-)
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We had almost escaped through that minefield this year EC.....
That's torn it!
For you to cut out and keep:
PRIOR TO 1995 it was a pretty even split between three-year-olds and older horses as to who won the Arc. In the period 1970 to 1994 12 three-year-olds and 13 older horses won the race. We might have concluded the weight-for-age (wfa) differential was about right (assuming we want to give three-year-olds a concession in championship races in the first place).
In 1995 the Northern Hemisphere allowance was raised to 8lb (11lb for three-year-old fillies) for three-year-olds over 12 furlongs. Lammtarra took full advantage of the increased differential and there has been a veritable landslide of three-year-old winners getting in on the act since. No less than 14 three-year-olds have won since 1995 and just three older horses.
If an older horse doesn’t win this year I doubt they’ll turn up in future.
S
SlimChance
Guest
14-3
In that period how many of the 3yo winners attempted to defend the Arc as a 4yo?
.
In that period how many of the 3yo winners attempted to defend the Arc as a 4yo?
.
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Bar the Bull
At the Start
Quite a few
Workforce
Bago
Hurricane Run
Montjeu
I can't think of any others.
By the way, the allowance was only raised 1lb in 1995.
Of the previous 22 winners, 13 were 4yo and up.
Does the fact that the allowance was raised 1lb make such a difference, or are we seeing a deterioration in the quality of older horses kept in training?
Workforce
Bago
Hurricane Run
Montjeu
I can't think of any others.
By the way, the allowance was only raised 1lb in 1995.
Of the previous 22 winners, 13 were 4yo and up.
Does the fact that the allowance was raised 1lb make such a difference, or are we seeing a deterioration in the quality of older horses kept in training?
S
SlimChance
Guest
Thanks Barry for making my point more eloquently.
Five of the 14 have tried in that period. All failed and all lost to 3yos:
Helissio winner in 1996, 6th behind a 3yo winner in 1997
Montjeu winner in 1999, 4th behind three 3yos in 2000
Bago winner in 2004, 3rd to a 3yo winner in 2005
Hurricane Run winner in 2005, promoted 3rd from 4th behind a 3yo winner in 2006
Workforce winner in 2010, 12th behind a 3yo one/two in 2011.
The difference as I have explained is that the older horses need to find another pound while the 3yos are relieved of an additional 1lb. It was an even split before 1995. Hence yes it makes a crucial difference.
Helissio winner in 1996, 6th behind a 3yo winner in 1997
Montjeu winner in 1999, 4th behind three 3yos in 2000
Bago winner in 2004, 3rd to a 3yo winner in 2005
Hurricane Run winner in 2005, promoted 3rd from 4th behind a 3yo winner in 2006
Workforce winner in 2010, 12th behind a 3yo one/two in 2011.
The difference as I have explained is that the older horses need to find another pound while the 3yos are relieved of an additional 1lb. It was an even split before 1995. Hence yes it makes a crucial difference.
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Bar the Bull
At the Start
So only Bago was beaten by the allowance.
S
SlimChance
Guest
Thanks Steve but I'm sure I read somewhere that Sinndar was better than Montjeu...
:lol: Love Sinndar as I do you shouldn't believe all you read (...especially on here).
There are none quite as blind as those that will not see Barry. The older horses have a great chance this year so you might get lucky, but I wouldn’t bank on it. I know where I am on it.
EC1
On a break
ok Steve
3lbs = 2 lengths at 1.5 miles
so looking at the Arcs since Lammtarra [not counting that now as Barry says only 1lb that year] shows that a 3yo would have still won in the following years when looking to within 2 lengths for the nearest older horse
1996 Helissio
1997 Peintre Celebre
1998 Sagamix
2000 Sinndar
2004 Bago
2005 Hurricane Run [Dead Heat]
2008 Zarkava [Dead Heat]
2009 Sea The Stars [Dead Heat]
2011 Danedream
the race has been run 90 times and 3yo have won 57 times = 63%
in the last 16 years without the 3lb extra wfa 3yo would have won the Arc 9 times..thats 56%
in the last 17 years 3yo's have won 82% as you say
is it significant statistically though?
this has happened before
between 1959 - 1972 when 3yo won 86%
and
1920-31 = 75% 3yo winners
in those days the race had better older horses as the race was a main target for older horses as the international scene was not in place then..so how on earth did all those 3yo's win?
so even in those days then 3yo's had periods where they dominated..nowadays with other target races appealing more for the older horses its not really that surprising that 3yo's are mopping up
but the period you quote isn't a large sample neither are those that were taking place 50 and 90 years ago.
how would you have explained those other golden 3yo periods?...can you answer this question and not gloss over it?
they are just blips Steve
and also you are assuming that 3lbs will affect all horses down by the same margin..to some horses it won't slow em down by a length probably
3lbs = 2 lengths at 1.5 miles
so looking at the Arcs since Lammtarra [not counting that now as Barry says only 1lb that year] shows that a 3yo would have still won in the following years when looking to within 2 lengths for the nearest older horse
1996 Helissio
1997 Peintre Celebre
1998 Sagamix
2000 Sinndar
2004 Bago
2005 Hurricane Run [Dead Heat]
2008 Zarkava [Dead Heat]
2009 Sea The Stars [Dead Heat]
2011 Danedream
the race has been run 90 times and 3yo have won 57 times = 63%
in the last 16 years without the 3lb extra wfa 3yo would have won the Arc 9 times..thats 56%
in the last 17 years 3yo's have won 82% as you say
is it significant statistically though?
this has happened before
between 1959 - 1972 when 3yo won 86%
and
1920-31 = 75% 3yo winners
in those days the race had better older horses as the race was a main target for older horses as the international scene was not in place then..so how on earth did all those 3yo's win?
so even in those days then 3yo's had periods where they dominated..nowadays with other target races appealing more for the older horses its not really that surprising that 3yo's are mopping up
but the period you quote isn't a large sample neither are those that were taking place 50 and 90 years ago.
how would you have explained those other golden 3yo periods?...can you answer this question and not gloss over it?
they are just blips Steve
and also you are assuming that 3lbs will affect all horses down by the same margin..to some horses it won't slow em down by a length probably
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