Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2012

SteveM said:
Also, in my head I'm thinking that Orfevre should have a near favorite's chance and be thereabouts, but the Japanese keep telling me he's not as good as Deep Impact, who I wasn't that wild about. The short price is putting me off big style on this one. Am I right?
Click to expand...

Deep Impact holds a near mythical status amongst the Japanese. There are people on this board who still can't see that Frankel is the best horse ever to have raced so tight do they hold onto the legend of Brigadier Gerard. I think Deep Impact has that same hold. Orfevre's form stacks up and if anything he looks the more spectacular of the two. Taking in the Prix Foy is the crucial difference between them. Deep Impact hadn't run since June and that cost him imo.

Orfevre is clearly the likeliest winner of the race and 7/2 is more than fair.
 
Last edited:
Great Heavens, WFA, fillies allowance, will love the ground and pace what's not to like.
 
Orfevre is a much better horse than Deep Impact, one only needs to look at the Arima Kinen form last season and he's had a prep unlike Deep Impact.

Deep Impact was as Euro eludes to, a national icon and as such, has been over rated a touch.

I can't see the ground being worse than British Good to Soft, the French love over egging the ground description. Mixed weather forecasts, most predict a wet Saturday and some predict a dry Sunday and some a wet one. If it's the latter, it probably will be soft but if it's just Saturday, it won't be too bad as it drains very well.
 
Ardross said:
This is a terrible Foret though . Where is Strong Suit ? has he been retired and Moonlight Cloud ? The Foret used to be on Prix Royal Oak day of course and a very competitive big chance to win a 7f G1 - it has been strong though with Paco Boy, Goldikova and Dream Ahead in three of the last four years.
Click to expand...

Moonlight Cloud is missing this as it's right-handed. Freddy Head has said he wants to get more full work into her at home at Chantilly going left-handed in preparation for the BC Mile as there were no opportunities for her in Europe to go left handed.

It's a joke that they've moved the Foret to Sunday over an hour after the Arc after a bloody Arab race. The weekend should be mixed. I'd move the Cadran to Saturday too, nice spread then.
 
Think her form could be argued to be very good in terms of the fillies this year through collateral lines and Shareta. I'd much rather be on her at 12/1 than Camelot at 11/4.
 
Good exchanges guys... I still haven't settled on a back up for Camelot... perhaps he doesn't need one.
 
Euronymous said:
There are people on this board who still can't see that Frankel is the best horse ever to have raced so tight do they hold onto the legend of Brigadier Gerard.
Click to expand...

Not necessarily holding on to the legend. Taking an objective view based on the form. Frankel has now proved he's up there alongside BG (and others with the form to back up the legend).

There has always been a nagging doubt in the back of my mind about the greats of the mid-late 60s and early 70s, including Arkle, that maybe they were on something undetectable and that maybe wasn't deemed agaisnt the rules at the time.

I have mentioned more than once Fatima Whitbread's interview on Blue Peter at the time she was world champion. She was in effect promoting the use of anabolic steroids, explaining how they worked and how much they had improved her performance. It was only a few years later they were banned and anyone caught using them acquired the status of an outcast. The 'great' Francois Boutin was one, after Trepan was found to have been administered them.

I would withdraw all praise for all my great equine heroes of the era if it emerged they were on steroids.
 
Gamla Stan said:
I can't see the ground being worse than British Good to Soft, the French love over egging the ground description.
Click to expand...

The French had a going stick years before we did, and (imo) it's more of a case of our having a parochial view of what constitutes 'good' ground, rather than Gallic misrepresentation. Their 'very soft' probably equates to our 'good to soft', and as such, should be no problem to the likes of Camelot, (judged on his Guineas' run).
By the same token, Japanese 'firm' would be a piece faster than anything we'd regularly race on, so the reported 'soft' for Orfevre's Japanese Derby win has to be taken with a similar pinch of salt. However, his form for that race, on the softest ground he's raced on, is rated very close to his best, so there's nothing in there to suggest Sunday's likely ground will inconvenience him.
 
My two cents:

People have got massively carried away with Orfevre and have re-interpreted his form to fit this swing. He's very good, but he is too short, and not a likely improver

The ground will be soft. It has been bucketing down very heavily a lot the past few days.

Camelot also short, but he can improve, and has a decent base from which to improve. Whether he will or not, only SteveM knows :p

Saonois is clearly the value bet; he looks top class, has had the right prep, shown the right attitude in tough situations, and 8s is crazy. He should be 4/1.

Great Heavens also a likely improver, and 12s a very good each way bet for one who will love the conditions.

I need to look at the Aga Khan horses again but if running on his own merits, Kesampour not the worst e/w bet ever at 40s.

Sea Moon a dreadful price. Who would back him at 10s? Same with Masterstroke who looks quite slow for this level.
 
Last edited:
Place laying Camelot is the bet. His ground concerns are seemingly being swept under the carpet.
 
I know there's some debate on here as to how important the draw is, but Orfevre is out in 18. Camelot in 5. Saonois in 2.
 
Last edited:
Hamm said:
My two cents:

People have got massively carried away with Orfevre and have re-interpreted his form to fit this swing. He's very good, but he is too short, and not a likely improver

The ground will be soft. It has been bucketing down very heavily a lot the past few days.

Camelot also short, but he can improve, and has a decent base from which to improve. Whether he will or not, only SteveM knows :p

Saonois is clearly the value bet; he looks top class, has had the right prep, shown the right attitude in tough situations, and 8s is crazy. He should be 4/1.

Great Heavens also a likely improver, and 12s a very good each way bet for one who will love the conditions.

I need to look at the Aga Khan horses again but if running on his own merits, Kesampour not the worst e/w bet ever at 40s.

Sea Moon a dreadful price. Who would back him at 10s? Same with Masterstroke who looks quite slow for this level.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the weather report. Be interested to see what tomorrow and Sunday bring.

Agree with most of this really, Orfevre will improve from the Foy (everyone there said looked very unfit) but not really a betting proposition at 3s-7/2 if the ground is soft.

Great Heavens, Saonois and Shareta look the only ones of interest at the prices now and the latter won't want soft ground.

I'm on Orfevre and Great Heavens antepost for big payouts and I've covered on Saonois this week and may cover some more on the day and I'm happy with that book.
 
Narcotic Nora said:
I know there's some debate on here as to how important the draw is, but Orfevre is out in 18. Camelot in 5. Saonois in 2. Haya Landa in 1 to get away quickly?
Click to expand...

Not ideal for Orfevre but as mad as it sounds, there's going to be so much pace on early looking at it, I'd rather be in 18 than 1 given the likely hussle and bussle. There's nobody else I'd rather have onboard than Soumillon to navigate his way from 18 either.
 
bad draw
especially as the horse is bestt covered,
I imagine he will have too be more prominent than ideal since the start of the race
 
image002.png


I searched for the draw analysis that I did last year....I found it, only it was Gareth Flynn who did it. Funny how one's mind plays tricks.

It shows the percentage of horses each stall has beaten (on average) in the past 22 Arcs, excluding last year. But the stalls are not numbered conventionally, rather they are numbered from their distance from the middle stall.

So you can see the horse drawn 7 places from the centre (which would be stall 4 in a 21 runner field) has beaten around 65% of its rivals.

As you can see, the regression (or trend) line is virtually horizontal. So there appears to be no significant advantage in being drawn on the inside, in the middle, or on the outside.
 
Last edited:
Cracking work Bar, goes to show that people get their knickers in a twist over nothing.

I thought you were just here for sarcastic comments as well. :)
 
Okay I’ve sat down and been through the relevant footage and form. It’s tricky this year. The two older horses I keep coming back to are St Nicholas Abbey and Orfevre, but I think I’m going to let both of these go.

According to the Racing Post there will be no mention of Good in the going come Sunday. It is Soft now and expected to be between Soft and Very Soft on the day.

Three-year-olds win this race (for whatever reason) since the allowance was raised in 1995 (the score is 14-3).

Although there are fewer 3yos than older horses running this year I reckon they have the advantage and Camelot, Saonois, Masterstroke and Great Heavens form a neat sub-set. Saonois and Masterstoke seem to quicken very well, while Camelot and Great Heavens tend to build momentum and then go clear. I think one of these four will win and nominate Camelot and Saonois as most likely. I can see why people want to be with Orfevre, he’s just about the best as things stand, but there’s not much in it for me and I think a couple of these three-year-olds will improve past him.

I’ll stake weighted win vs place bets on these four.

By opposing the older horses I will ensure decent profit or heavy loss. It’s a risk I’m prepared to take.
 
Last edited:
SteveM said:
The draw stats show that if the winner is good enough it can come from anywhere. Gareth also put up something on this.

See this: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmXtvLAX7HejdDZwUXpLMngzNGdVbkkxV1lVbHoyTGc#gid=0

It shows we shouldn't waste too much time pondering this one.
Click to expand...

I sent the link to the draw stats details earlier (see above). The draw isn't really anything to get that excited about. Sagace was able to win from 17 and Carroll House from 16.
 
Last edited:
My bets are looking very similar to Gamla!! I'm on Orfevre at 12's and that'll do on him as i've got no inclination to top up at current prices but i've backed Saonais and may have a couple of quid on Great HEavens as the ground is definitely coming for her.

Still an intriguing race but not the race it could have been a month ago. Danedream and Nathaniel are a big miss. Hopefully the latter will turn up for the Champion to add some further spice to that race.
 
Bar the Bull said:
Holy mother of jaysus. I agree with SteveM. I feel funny...
Click to expand...

Have we both really been on here since May 2003? I’ve barely been with the missus that long. It’s coming up for our tenth anniversary. We’ll have to celebrate by picking a winner (I'm sure we had one once...)
 
Last edited:
Back
Top