Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2012

Gamla Stan said:
Great Heavens was a good price at 12/14, not at 7!

I still think Orfevre wins this and can't understand why he's drifting and Camelot isn't, he's won on soft in Japan but I agree with Gearoid and Hamm that Kesampour is the only EW value now. Will enjoy the ground and arguably LTO was a prep and could be a better horse than Saonois.
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It's simply weight of money. Camelot is being backed like defeat is out of the question.
 
sunybay said:
the situation reminds me the year Sakhee won
the best horse in the field obliging

Orfevre is the best horse for me by far here, the ground is an unknown but only time he has run of softer was in the japanesse Derby
Nakayama Festa run a blinder in Workforce year and was by Stay Gold too



Of the rivals
the only one to go on heavy ground is Great Heavens
and this have been an afterthought, comments by Gosden and Buick that she is not her brother, and the form is nothing special, Shirocco was not an advertisemnet today, her lack of pace in a big field is a negative



Sea Moon will not go on the ground, Camelot neither, and St Nicholas is better on goof to firm and left handed, shareta not ideal on the ground

and Saonois will lack the stamina on this ground

I have enough and a little more on the japanesse champion and will not have more but I think he will do a sakhee tomorrrow
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nice write up Suny..i'll join you i think
 
I took 16/1 Orfevre in July and laid it off during the week at 14/5.

The going is putting me off not just the race but the entire card.
 
Orfevre's Japan Derby was won in a time of 2m 30.5secs, so any suggestion that he's run on ground equating to our 'soft' is well wide of the mark. Not saying he won't act on it, but I am saying it's guessing to presume he will.
Looks a race to avoid completely for betting purposes, imo.
 
Orfrve won on 2:30.5

this year has been won in 2:23.9 on firm ground


arc record is 2:24

Sakhee won it in 2:35
Montjeu 2:37

I think it will more in Sakhees time tomorrow
I think the Abbey will be run tomorrow in 1:00

so looks like being between 2:35 and 2;36
especially comparing Cirrus time this year and last one


I will trust on the japanesse horse
 
looks soft to me as well

allthough heavy can be totally different from soft

im not sure though if any horse particulaly likes heavy especially flat bred ones

sakhee though had had prior experience of soft and heavy ground

are horses allowed to be withdrawn in France if the going is vastly different on raceday to when the final declarations were made
 
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EC1 said:
looks like standing water on the inside track. The time is 7 seconds slower than on firm..which puts Good ground at about 127seconds...so i'll go for about 40lb slower than middle good

it will be slower tomorrow..but its soft ground there..imo
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I'm guessing you mean 147 seconds?
The course record for 12f at York (the nearest configuration to Tokyo of the gd1 British tracks) is 146.28 secs - achieved on firm ground - about equivalent of your Japanese 'good'.
Go figure.
 
prince regent said:
are horses allowed to be withdrawn in France if the going is vastly different on raceday to when the final declarations were made
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Better to risk a fine than risk the horse? - wouldn't be at all surprised to see Camelot withdrawn if the ground's the same tomorrow; indeed, it would surprise to see him run.
 
suerunner said:
Is there anywhere on the net you can watch this? I only have "normal TV". Any help appreciated, thanks.
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Sue
Failing all else, you could spend £5.99 on 1 month's online ATR, which would get you today's racing, Qipco Champion's Day, and both days of the Breeder's Cup meeting - cheap as chips, considering the quality.
 
Aragorn said:
With the ground going Soft is Mayson a good bet for the Abbaye? Him winning the July Cup turned around my punting year on the flat so i'm going in again!!
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Given the ground remains similar to yesterday, must be the bet of the meeting, imo.
His draw just adds to the lustre.
 
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Waded in to some 33's about Ballesteros in the Abbaye - 2/2 on heavy and 3/3 in total on soft or worse. Bolted up in a handicap off 93 on heavy at Sandown before following up on soft in a decent 3yo Handicap at Chester. He's got a bit of class about him too as he showed as a 2yo when giving weight and a beating to Mince on heavy at Haydock 12 months ago and the yard has had a few winners of late.

Martin
 
I like Wizzkid in the Abbaye. Soft ground horse, she has won G2 sprints on soft and gs, 2nd in a G1 on vsft. The business end of several other G1s this season. Still improving, only 4.
 
Sole power is a horse I love but do feel that the horse needs a good or better surface to be seen at his best.
 
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