Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2012

With the ground going Soft is Mayson a good bet for the Abbaye? Him winning the July Cup turned around my punting year on the flat so i'm going in again!!
 
SteveM said:
Have we both really been on here since May 2003? I’ve barely been with the missus that long. It’s coming up for our tenth anniversary. We’ll have to celebrate by picking a winner (I'm sure we had one once...)
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I think we may have agreed with one another before 2003 in one of the forum's old guises.

I started off just before the old forum migrated from Channel 4...it must have been nearly 15 years ago.

Just to depress the others, I seem to remember a discussion of the wfa benefits enjoyed by Montjeu over El Condor Pasa one rainy day in Paris.

So we have been having this discussion for at least 13 years.

You're relentless, I'll give you that.
 
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Bar the Bull said:
I think we may have agreed with one another before 2003 in one of the forum's old guises.

I started off just before the old forum migrated from Channel 4...it must have been nearly 15 years ago.

Just to depress the others, I seem to remember a discussion of the wfa benefits enjoyed by Montjeu over El Condor Pasa one rainy day in Paris.

So we have been having this discussion for at least 13 years.

You're relentless, I'll give you that.
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We need to get out more... although it did work for Montjeu (both times), if he couldn't manage it a second time there won't be many that will.

...I remember losing £50 to you once (delivered it by hand as I remember).
 
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I saw the Arc De Triomph in Camelot about 150 yards from the finishing line at Doncaster.

But I keep looking and thinking 'there's something about Sea Moon though', and its one of those things I can't ignore. As they've chosen that Italian chav Dettori to ride Camelot and with the price going I'm happy not to back Camelot and still see him win.

I had a lot of faith in Beyond Desire earlier in the year and he ran quite well in the Nunthorpe: Will probably go with it in the Abbaybe.

Sea Moon for me in the Arc, his win at Royal Ascot struck me at the time as a group one performance in a group two race, and I think on a going day there's more to come. The one-two for me is..

1. Sea Moon
2. Camelot
 
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I like Sea Moon also. According to Mordin 12 of the last 13 winners of the race had won a Group 1 that season by at least 2 lengths. Only Camelot, SNA and Orfevre qualify on that score, but imo the Hardwicke is pretty much a Group 1 nowadays (it certainly is a better race usually than most of the Group 1's held in Germany and the Grand Prix du Saint Cloud). A fast pace and plenty of cut will certainly suit the horse.
 
This is probably one example of where raw stats don't tell the full picture re-Sea Moon. I can't beleive Mordin wouldn't factor in that it probably was a very good group one performance in what was (as you say) a Group One race.

I didn't need a rating for what my eyes could see at Ascot in June.
 
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In the Hardwicke he won well
but had the run of the race, Dunadem impeded and was receiving weight,
in an Stoute interview recently you can read between lines he thinks he is not good enough to win an Arc and the Canadian race was the target until the defections of the 3 good older horses


I think Orfevre has the class to defy the ground and the draw as Sakhee and dalakhani did.
 
Absolutely lashed it down all day in Paris since mid Afternoon. Not light drizzle either, persistent proper rain.

Will definitely be Soft now tomorrow, looked like they were kicking it up enough today and the times indicated it was already pretty soft.

Great Heavens looks a shrewd supplement to me.
 
There's going to be some tasty prices about all the good horses knocking around tomorrow with everyone fighting to get on all these paceless boats. :D
 
For those interested, it is pouring down in Paris since lubchtime. Can't imagine anything other than very soft ground now.

I would leave the front 2 well alone.
 
Hamm said:
I mentioned him 3 pages back. Him, great heavens and Saonois all VERY much worth backing.
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Great Heavens is a terrible price. She has nowhere near the class to win this for all that she'll appreciate the ground.

I've done Saonois and Sea Moon to add to the 12s I have on Orfevre.
 
Sea Moon is thoroughly exposed as a 121/122 horse and won't love the ground. You don't know yet how good GH is. You've done your money already I think.
 
Ha Ha. I'm on Orfevre, and happy enough with that. It's the other races I'm looking forward to going through, if I ever finish this report of Redcar's Two-Year-Old Trophy.

Haven't checked out the oppo in detail, but Purr Along is in danger of being grossly underrated.
 
Hamm said:
Sea Moon is thoroughly exposed as a 121/122 horse and won't love the ground. You don't know yet how good GH is. You've done your money already I think.
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Dude, Sea Moon pissed the Voltigeur on good to soft and is a half brother to Brian Boru who loved it deep. Eva Luna's form was all on yielding ground as well. He is not exposed on soft ground in a big field with a cracking pace.

The ground does worry me more than the draw re Orfevre but he did win the Japanese Derby on soft.
 
Hamm said:
Sea Moon is thoroughly exposed as a 121/122 horse and won't love the ground. You don't know yet how good GH is. You've done your money already I think.
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Still think Frankel is a July Cup horse, Hamm? LOL.

Sea Moon, Sea Moon, Sea Moon.
 
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the situation reminds me the year Sakhee won
the best horse in the field obliging

Orfevre is the best horse for me by far here, the ground is an unknown but only time he has run of softer was in the japanesse Derby
Nakayama Festa run a blinder in Workforce year and was by Stay Gold too



Of the rivals
the only one to go on heavy ground is Great Heavens
and this have been an afterthought, comments by Gosden and Buick that she is not her brother, and the form is nothing special, Shirocco was not an advertisemnet today, her lack of pace in a big field is a negative



Sea Moon will not go on the ground, Camelot neither, and St Nicholas is better on goof to firm and left handed, shareta not ideal on the ground

and Saonois will lack the stamina on this ground

I have enough and a little more on the japanesse champion and will not have more but I think he will do a sakhee tomorrrow
 
Great Heavens was a good price at 12/14, not at 7!

I still think Orfevre wins this and can't understand why he's drifting and Camelot isn't, he's won on soft in Japan but I agree with Gearoid and Hamm that Kesampour is the only EW value now. Will enjoy the ground and arguably LTO was a prep and could be a better horse than Saonois.
 
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