Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2012

I am far from being his biggest fan (he's beaten nought yet IMO) but I'd be lumping it on at 7/1. I'm not certain that he wants this test by any means but he's simply much better than the rest on what we've seen. A lot will depend on conditions/contenders on the day.
 
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Euronymous said:
Shergar had run in the King George. That did for him more than a lack of stamina.
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not sure about that..evidence?..all i can say is look at how slow Camelot was in beating BTS..and BTS shouldn't take all that beating..would have expected C to murder him

that 12 on slow ground was an indicator of what an extra 2 furlongs will do to C..does his win over BTS still give him 10lbs in hand?
 
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He hasn't got 10lb in hand on soft/heavy.

Keeping a 3yo on the boil for a Derby campaign, then a King George and then a St Leger is gonna take it's toll on most animals.
 
Yes and given the ambition for rest of season, i am still surprised they ran him in that ground at the curragh. Sometimes think races like that can leave a mark whatever the gap to the next run
 
EC1 said:
Camelot's performance in the Irish Derby indicates a leger win is highly unlikely..i'd want 7/1+
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You're having a laugh surely? What's you're definition of "highly unlikely". Surely on a scale of shoo ins he must rate higher than say Black Cavier at Ascot with all she had to overcome.
 
This Camelot affair wih the St Leger is quite surprsing for me

It is a very good story for romantic and nostalgic people and maye for the press but for racing fans, breeding and industry people is quite obvious if the horse were so good they would go to Arc or to the Champion to face Frankel,

what I think is they will try to explote the death of Montjeu and try to sell the horse as a champion and for me at the moment is nothing more than a good horse for the moment.

I think he is going to win the St Leger but at 6/4 or shorter I would not touch him.

He isvery likley to win the Triple Crown and hte Irish Derby but everydody knows who si the best horse in the world and by miles.
 
sunybay said:
This Camelot affair wih the St Leger is quite surprsing for me

It is a very good story for romantic and nostalgic people and maye for the press but for racing fans, breeding and industry people is quite obvious if the horse were so good they would go to Arc or to the Champion to face Frankel,

what I think is they will try to explote the death of Montjeu and try to sell the horse as a champion and for me at the moment is nothing more than a good horse for the moment.

I think he is going to win the St Leger but at 6/4 or shorter I would not touch him.

He isvery likley to win the Triple Crown and hte Irish Derby but everydody knows who si the best horse in the world and by miles.
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I'm afraid this is codswallop suny. The Ballydoyle/Coolmore mafia are not known for being either romantic or nostalgic.

Smith and Tabor are salivating at the bit at the prospect of running him in the St Leger and Magnier is very happy to showcase him as a Triple Crown winner at the expense of the Arc.

What many are missing here is that if we look at the three Classics as a set Camelot’s stud value would be enhanced rather than diminished by those looking to inject versatility into the breed. In achieving the Triple Crown O’Brien would be handing Magnier, Smith and co something very special indeed, against which even Arc winners could be judged two a penny.
 
SteveM said:
You're having a laugh surely? What's you're definition of "highly unlikely". Surely on a scale of shoo ins he must rate higher than say Black Cavier at Ascot with all she had to overcome.
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BC was rated in the mid 130's..many other lesser sprinters than her had come here and hammered ours..thats why she was the price she was.

Compare that to Camelot..his form line that relates closest re a stamina test to that what he will meet at Donny.. is the Irish Derby form..where he beat BTS..who was then thrashed by a 117 OHR horse..lets be kind to BTS and say he is a 115 horse..the ID form makes Camelot a 118 horse.

thats below the average rating a St Leger winner gets...so how is Camelot a shoo in?

I have no issue with them going for a triple crown..i actually love the idea..but Camelot is no good thing because his one shot at showing extra stamina in the ID puts him short of what will be needed at Donny

I'd rather back the first fast trapping 6/4 fav from T1 at tomorrows bags meeting tbh..better value imo
 
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EC1 said:
I have no issue with them going for a triple crown..i actually love the idea..but Camelot is no good thing because his one shot at showing extra stamina in the ID puts him short of what will be needed at Donny

I'd rather back the first fast trapping 6/4 fav from T1 at tomorrows bags meeting tbh..better value imo
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I wouldn’t be pinning your hopes on him losing the St Leger on the Irish Derby (a race that under the circumstances he did well in and Ballydoyle got away with). Camelot has no stamina deficiencies. The 2,000 Guineas was always the one he was going to be vulnerable in. He is a wide spectrum horse, one that is able to win at a range of distances.

Good luck with tomorrow’s bags meeting I know which way I’ll be looking.
 
SteveM said:
I wouldn’t be pinning your hopes on him losing the St Leger on the Irish Derby (a race that under the circumstances he did well in and Ballydoyle got away with). Camelot has no stamina deficiencies. The 2,000 Guineas was always the one he was going to be vulnerable in. He is a wide spectrum horse, one that is able to win at a range of distances.

Good luck with tomorrow’s bags meeting I know which way I’ll be looking.
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Camelot has no stamina deficiencies

i agree..against a 115 horse he's fine..but stamina is related to who you run against..they all stay 5 miles..some faster than others though. At this moment in time he's done nothing to suggest he will beat 120 horses when stamina is even more at a premium than in the Irish Derby. He was wandering all over the shop in Ireland and made BTS look better than he is either before that run or after when hammered by a 117 horse...beaten by a horse that had previously never won above G3 level.
 
EC1 said:
He was wandering all over the shop in Ireland
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Did you see the state of the going in Ireland? As I say If you are going to base anything on that you could find yourself in trouble.

There are horses that will stay further than him in the St Leger, but none that will better him at the trip given reasonable going.
 
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SteveM said:
Did you see the state of the going in Ireland? As I say If you are going to base anything on that you could find yourself in trouble.

There are horses that will stay further than him in the St Leger, but none that will better him at the trip given reasonable going.
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the state of the ground was key to my comparison with a race over 2f further..ie it was a real 12f test..BTS handled it fine and is not far away from Camelot over a stamina sapping test..what price would BTS be for the leger?...as his chance in the race wouldn't be far away from Camelot
 
Camelot

this is how I rate his races:
RP Trophy 118P (114++)
Guineas 122p
Derby 126
Irish Derby 121+?

I think he was at his best in the Derby and I don expect him to better that figure.


about the St Leger he is the most likely winner and he will be fully fit for that but the Leger is a race in what many years the top rated horse doesnt perform at their best (Sea Moon, Ramruma, Quiff, Snow Fairy and Rewilding,Look Here and Frozen Fire, Bandari)


Obrien has done it with Scorpion and Milan
Camelot is a good horse in a weak crop and in most generations he would have won 1 or 0 classics and odds on is not a bet for me in this leger
 
Danedream didnt need to be at her best today to win the GP Baden

it was a slowly run race,
she is a very good mare but my feeling is she is not this year as good as she was last season.


these ar the following trialsto be run in the next 2 weeks:


Foy sept 16th:
Orfevre
Sea Moon
No Risk At All
Reliable Man
Shareta?
Meandre


Vermeille Sept 16th:
Shareta?
Galikova
The Fugue
Princess Highway
Great Heavens ?


Niel Sept16th :
Saonaois
Last Train
Imperial Monarch


Irish Champion sept 8th:
Nathaniel
Snow Fairy
St Nicholas Abbey


St Leger sept15th:
Camelot
Great Heavens


Pastorius, Frankel and Great Heavens highly unlikely to be supplemented
Cirrus not allowed to run and injured.

So in the next 15 days all the possible winners shoudl have run their trials

Orfevre clear pcik for me with Danedream and Nathaniel as the possible dangers.
 
Orfevre is a gift from god at double figure prices. He looks better than Deep Impact and having a prep is a huge plus.
 
Good post Suny. Read that, and thought I'd probably back Orfevre at about 8's. So very pleasantly surprised to see him at 14's. He's the one horse in the market imo who's price is potentially way out of line of what it could be. Certainly don't see how there's much Camelot and Nathaniel can do between now and the Arc to justify shortening their odds considerably.
 
EC1 said:
the state of the ground was key to my comparison with a race over 2f further..ie it was a real 12f test..BTS handled it fine and is not far away from Camelot over a stamina sapping test..what price would BTS be for the leger?...as his chance in the race wouldn't be far away from Camelot
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There's a big difference in not staying on the ground and being all at sea on it though. Don't take Ireland as evidence of him not staying.
 
SteveM said:
There's a big difference in not staying on the ground and being all at sea on it though. Don't take Ireland as evidence of him not staying.
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Precisely, Steve.
Though clearly unbalanced on the ground, Camelot was going away from BTS each time his jockey gained equilibrium, and (much as in the Guineas) judging him on the bare form wouldn't nearly do him justice.
 
I think it's a shame that Frankel will be missing from the Arc. This piece from Brian O'Connor's blog on irish-racing.com sums it up well

With the benefit of hindsight it was naïve to think Frankel was ever going to go to the Arc. It was just that Prince Khalid’s extensive history with the great race gave a faint glimmer of hope there might be a chance of a shot to nothing for Frankel at a mile and a half. If he got beat, it would hardly impact on his reputation: and if he won, well, the history books could be re-written.
But the safe option has been taken. Henry Cecil has never appeared overly keen on racing in France and Frankel will surely end his career with a ten furlong jaunt at Ascot. The Juddmonte team have clearly bowed to the trainer, which is only right. There’s little point paying a pilot and then elbowing him out of the cockpit.
But the question-mark will always hang tantalisingly there: what could Frankel have done at a mile and a half? There was hardly any indication of him stopping at York. And like it or not, a mile and a half is the ‘the’ European classic distance. The question-mark remains: A pity.
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davidjohnson said:
He's the one horse in the market imo who's price is potentially way out of line of what it could be.
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Isn't Masterstroke the other one who this comment applies to? Run in the Niel I presume and could be half the current 20/1 after that.

Seems crazy for Lads to be top price the two most likely shorteners.
 
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