Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2012

I doubt if many will remeber Sir Michael Stoute saying Sea Moon could be the best horse he's ever trained. Unlike AOB he's not known for shed talking so when he does say something like that one should sit up and pay attention.

His policy of being very patient with horses has paid dividends in the past so I'm hoping Sea Moon proves to be as good as the man said he might be, win the King George and then the Arc. He's certainly gone the right way but with the ARC it's wide open for some unknown quantity from Japan or like last year Germany cause an upset.

I can't for the life of me understand why anyone would fancy St Nicholas Abbey as he has never quite been top class and his successes for me are down to AOB placing him in the right races.

Danedream won easily last year and could easily win again.

The dodgiest AP bet has to be Camelot. If he wins the St Leger there's more chance of me ridng Sea Moon as him going to France. Triple Crown winner, unbeaten, he'll either go for the Irish Champion Stakes with the excuse they want the Irish people to see their champion or he'll go lame and be sent to the sheds. If he loses the St Leger it won't matter if he runs or not.

Nathaniel has without doubt the class to win an Arc. If France has a wet couple of weeks leading upto the race he'd be a near certainty to win IMO

However I backed Sea Moon ante post in 2 single and a double before his last race so I am stuck with him but Nathaniel scares me big time and I reckon, albeit a bit late, that he is the one they all have to beat.
 
The dodgiest AP bet has to be Camelot. If he wins the St Leger there's more chance of me ridng Sea Moon as him going to France. Triple Crown winner, unbeaten, he'll either go for the Irish Champion Stakes with the excuse they want the Irish people to see their champion or he'll go lame and be sent to the sheds. If he loses the St Leger it won't matter if he runs or not.
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The Leger is on 15 September this year, and the Irish Champion Stakes is on the 8th. Most years they're on the same day.
 
My bad I thought it was run a month later.

Don't think people realise how much prestige is attached to winning the Triple Crown is. It is the one time the St Leger becomes really important. It has become unfashionable but that's mainly because very few won the first 2 legs and the likes of STS probably wouldn't have stayed that far.
It was certainly important to Dr Vincent and CE the owner of Nijinsky who has "Here lies the remains of the owner of a Triple Crown winner" engraved on his gravestone.

My worry for punters who back Camelot AP is he wins the Triple Crown and they feel they would rather have an unbeaten Triple Crown winner on their books than a Triple Crown winner who got stuffed in the Arc. I realise Ballydoyle are always keen to take on the champs like Sea the Stars and Frankel but this fellow is the champ not the challenger so don't be surprised if he never races again after the St Leger.
 
Tanlic said:
Danedream won easily last year and could easily win again.
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Can't see this one getting close to the frame now she is four, to be blunt she just isn't good enough to win it again and did well to take advantage of all she had going for her as a 3yo.
 
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SteveM said:
Can't see this one getting close to the frame now she is four, to be blunt she just isn't good enough to win it again and did well to take advantage of all she had going for her as a 3yo.
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Danedream would have won without the wfa allowance last year..oh no i've mentioned wfa ;)
 
Okay she did well in beating Night Magic at Group 1 level in Germany and seeing off Shareta in the Arc, performances that were apparently in the mid- to high-120s. But the general level of her form is only mid-110s, including this season and I suspect her Arc run was overrated anyway.

Homecoming Queen is an extreme example of this type. An RPR of 117 in the 1,000 Guineas (which was all wrong) and struggling to break 100 in the best of her other performances before and since. This was not a great filly (her general level of form is decidedly mediocre) but one that managed to nick a big one. Good luck to her. She was never going to win another Group 1 (her record at Group 1 level is 14, 1, 4, 8). They have unsurprisingly decided to retire her.
 
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Prix De L Arc De Triomphe - Winner 2012-10-07
Favourites: Frankel (With A Run) (1/3) , Frankel (2) , Camelot (7/2) , Danedream (7) , Nathaniel (7) , Meandre (16) , Orfevre (16) , St Nicholas Abbey (16) , Valyra (16) , Beauty Parlour (20) , Imperial Monarch (20) , Last Train (20) , Sea Moon (20) , Snow Fairy (20) , The Fugue (20) , Born To Sea (25) , Farhh (25) , Novellist (25) , Pastorius (25) , Saint Baudolino (25)
 
If you accept that he would trade around 1.4x should he run in the Arc than the market suggests roughly the following prices for him to run in the race:

13/8 Yes
4/9 No


.
 
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sunybay said:
Prix De L Arc De Triomphe - Winner 2012-10-07
Favourites: Frankel (With A Run) (1/3) , Frankel (2) , Camelot (7/2) , Danedream (7) , Nathaniel (7) , Meandre (16) , Orfevre (16) , St Nicholas Abbey (16) , Valyra (16) , Beauty Parlour (20) , Imperial Monarch (20) , Last Train (20) , Sea Moon (20) , Snow Fairy (20) , The Fugue (20) , Born To Sea (25) , Farhh (25) , Novellist (25) , Pastorius (25) , Saint Baudolino (25)
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Orfevre looked special in his last run. It is mental he is the same price as Meandre. There is so much juice still in this market because I cannot see Sir Henry running Frankel and Camelot has no chance if he runs in the Leger beforehand.
 
Euronymous said:
There is so much juice still in this market because I cannot see Sir Henry running Frankel and Camelot has no chance if he runs in the Leger beforehand.
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While they will likely stick to plan A for Frankel in the Champion Stakes I haven’t totally given up on an Arc run. You never know, he could become just the second older horse to beat the three-year-olds in the Arc since 2003 (...he could be that good!);)
 
FRANKEL looks likely to bring his remarkable racing career to a close in the Qipco Champion Stakes at Ascot on October 20.

The announcement by connections that the unbeaten star would target Britain's premier middle distance race effectively rules out any possibility Frankel will run in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, which falls on October 7.

Teddy Grimthorpe, racing manager to the colt's owner, said: “Following discussions with Sir Henry Cecil, Prince Khalid has decided that Frankel's next race will be the Group 1 Champion Stakes at Ascot on October 20.”
 
jinnyj said:
Ascot Premier tickets sold out already!
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Tried to buy some today as well.

I'm going though. I'm hoping Camelot wins the Leger (which i'm also going to) and then Ballydoyle wait for Champions Day to take on Frankel. If Cirrus turns up as well that will be race of the year.
 
Aragorn

Cirrus looks seriously injured

Camelot, he will not be racing in a place if Frankel is in a 200 miles are close to there.
 
If the ground is on the fast side I think Camelot will win simply by virtue of the fact that the opposition will be terrible. If there's cut Great Heaven's will do him.
 
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