chroniclandlord
Senior Jockey
Imperial Monarch has been taken out of the St Leger, hopefully he will run at Longchamp on Sunday.
Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2012
- Thread starter Euronymous
- Start date
chroniclandlord
Senior Jockey
nor the Irish St Leger
Gamla Stan
At the Start
- Joined
- Aug 19, 2005
- Messages
- 4,337
This is shaping like an absolute cakewalk for Orfevre. 
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
8/1 is still very fair. I've covered on Danedream just in case she returns to last year's form but nothing else appeals at all.
Gamla Stan
At the Start
- Joined
- Aug 19, 2005
- Messages
- 4,337
Was thinking of doing the same. Might back the two Fabre three year olds.
On The Bridle
At the Start
Orfevre now 5/1 best price!!! Any thoughts on the Vermeille... I really like Princess Highway for this. I can completely forgive her last run in the sludge. Can anybody put me off a big bet.
edgt
Senior Jockey
Drawn 13 and must beat Shareta; otherwise no.
Too many unexposed French 3yo's in this not to mention some very good older fillies and she has more than Shareta to beat. I could not have her and I find her current UK prices ludicrous. Better off waiting to see what her tote price is, currently at 12/1 although she'll probably be closer to half that at post time
Last edited:
edgt
Senior Jockey
Not anymore, i imagine. Needs to supplemented for Arc I believe.
I think so. Chapman was doing one of his clown acts after the Niel railing on about how there were no superstars in the race and he could not possibly win it. How does he know, the winner is still unexposed. A real buffoon he can be at times. All I know is that this horse had one of the roughest passages in the French Derby and still won and he went thru a gap today where you could not have slipped a sheet of paper on each side. Fearless horse and jockey, always a good combo for the Arc. Is he good enough? No idea but he's the only 3yo I'd put in my top 6 contenders, unless it's decided that Saint Baudolino was to run.
Last edited:
Owners are stumping up for the 100K. He's being supplemented
edgt
Senior Jockey
Tks brendanr. Good news. The classic generation have a candidate.
I have a Camelot flag courtesy of HRI and The Curragh. Any bids?
I have a Camelot flag courtesy of HRI and The Curragh. Any bids?
LBM
At the Start
- Joined
- Jul 22, 2003
- Messages
- 401
I wasn't really impressed by Orfevre today, but I still got faith in him and I think he will improve from today's race.
I hope Yoshida makes sure Danedream doesn't beat him in three weeks time.
The three-year-olds have no chance for me at all.
Nathaniel might need soft ground.
Snow Fairy would be dangerous, but she might be aimed at later races.
I backed Shareta at 300/1 in May and I am delighted with her performance today. She seems to be in top form and could have a good chance if a few hard luck stories happend during the race.
Some bookies have got 9 horses on/under 12/1.
Great race in prospect!!
I hope Yoshida makes sure Danedream doesn't beat him in three weeks time.
The three-year-olds have no chance for me at all.
Nathaniel might need soft ground.
Snow Fairy would be dangerous, but she might be aimed at later races.
I backed Shareta at 300/1 in May and I am delighted with her performance today. She seems to be in top form and could have a good chance if a few hard luck stories happend during the race.
Some bookies have got 9 horses on/under 12/1.
Great race in prospect!!
EC1
On a break
be interesting to test the wfa theory this year
imo 3yo's win because they are the cream of the crop..but if wfa does help then its fair to say it should aid one to win in a below par year
imo 3yo's win because they are the cream of the crop..but if wfa does help then its fair to say it should aid one to win in a below par year
On The Bridle
At the Start
Quartered my stake - thanks
Danedream 9/2
Orfevre 5/1
Nathaniel 6/1
Snow Fairy 7/1
Shareta 10/1
Saonois 12/1
St Nicholas Abbey 14/1
Masterstroke 16/1
Imperial Monarch 25/1
Meandre 16/1
Sea Moon 20/1
No Risk At All
Great Heavens
Encke
Camelot, Cirrus, Frankel, Saint Badoulino, So You Think, Valyra, Beauty Parlour out of the race
at lesser lever Al Kazeem, Mount Athos, Pastorius and Novellist also out.
Orfevre (118++ in the Foy) 132p, first of all I think he is the best horse in the field, good strike rate, stays the distance and has the speed, as he showed today, heavy horse, should improve todays form (being a prep), pedigree and scope to improve his very good form in Japan, easy to place, will like a fast pace and stays 2 miles, has had the ideal preparation with a break in summer ,own brother improved with time and the booking of Soumillon is a big positive, he gained course form today, all he needs is a fine draw and stay healthy until Oct 7th, the Arc should go to Japan this year.
Of the main rivals
Danedream, part owned by Orfevres owner, one of the best winners in the Arc in recent seasons when scoring impressively last year posting a very good figure (130+) in a very fast time having all in her favour, form has worked out very well with the first 6 winning gr1s at least one each horse since then. Small fillie I think she is very good but has not trained on and is not as good as was last year, last time out put a doubtfull run (117) much less impressive than she was last year when posting a 127+ in the same race , this year has run her best race in the King George (125), a race not ideal for Arc bid, only Dancing Brave, Lammtarra and Dylan Thomashave won both races in the same season and only Workforce run in it too, trying to emulate Ribot winning back to abck runs in the Arc with a King George in the middle, can ran place and is the main danger.
Snow Fairy (124), 21 runs , many group 1 wins in different countries, run to her last time second run of the season after a tendon injury, her best 3 runs have been in 10f on god or gf ground when she can apply her good turn of foot, a big field will be a negative if a big field and as good as I think she is the best I can see her doing is being placed and there some targets in HK, Japan or even Breeders Cup that can be more tempting than running here,
Nathaniel , (128),at his very best this year in the King George, tends to sweat in the prelims ( a negative in a race like this), another not with a summer break, needs soft ground and had a hard race last time out, trainer could be tempted in bypassing the race and going for the Champion Stakes, Frankel is unbeatable but with Cirrus out, the prize money for the second place could be very tempting , especially with the trainers championship in mind.
Saonais (117p), improving horse, best chance of the 3yo in a very very weak generation, I dont have information aboutthe trainer, started the season in Feb after running in Dec, run in all weather, improving fastly, showed very good speed in the Jockey Club, in a bad edition, had a bad travel but not the worst of the field, given a summer break and run very well in the Niel in a very slowly run race, looks like a 10f horse as have been the best sons of his sire, needs to be supplemented and improvea stone on form, style of racing not ideal for a big field, not for me
Shareta has posted more than once this year in my figures 119, today she did a 117+ and looks like able to reproduce her best form last year (122 in the Arc),she is likely to have been the fittest of the 3 winners of the trials today, place chance at very best for me-
Of the rest
St Nicholas Abbey (126), 5yo, exposed, goes better left handed, 6 runs in a season without a summer break is enough for me not to win the Arc, I imagine they will target the BC Turf, unlikely runner.
Meandre (124) not good enough
Masterstroke (113p) not good enough
Imperial Monarch (117p), needs soft ground, bad sign he has not run a trail, weak in the betting.
Sea Moon (125) lacks the pace to win an Arc, no prep, stable having abad season.
No Risk At All (127+t?) , 122+ last time out, good horse, in an unfashionable stable, Arc winners uses to have a good preparation and to be distance winners, with the injury unlikely to run.
Encke (118p), not good enough, Leger a bad trial , needs to be supplemented.
Great Heavens (121p) needs soft ground, unlikely to supplemented, another to go to aScot to help her trainer to win the traines Championship on Champions day at Ascot,
Once the mighty Frankel is not running I dont see nothing stopping Orfevre, I am on at 16/1, but 5/1 is very tempting and in the day in the pmu with the japanase round there can finish at 6/4.
in 3 weeks we have the result.
Orfevre 5/1
Nathaniel 6/1
Snow Fairy 7/1
Shareta 10/1
Saonois 12/1
St Nicholas Abbey 14/1
Masterstroke 16/1
Imperial Monarch 25/1
Meandre 16/1
Sea Moon 20/1
No Risk At All
Great Heavens
Encke
Camelot, Cirrus, Frankel, Saint Badoulino, So You Think, Valyra, Beauty Parlour out of the race
at lesser lever Al Kazeem, Mount Athos, Pastorius and Novellist also out.
Orfevre (118++ in the Foy) 132p, first of all I think he is the best horse in the field, good strike rate, stays the distance and has the speed, as he showed today, heavy horse, should improve todays form (being a prep), pedigree and scope to improve his very good form in Japan, easy to place, will like a fast pace and stays 2 miles, has had the ideal preparation with a break in summer ,own brother improved with time and the booking of Soumillon is a big positive, he gained course form today, all he needs is a fine draw and stay healthy until Oct 7th, the Arc should go to Japan this year.
Of the main rivals
Danedream, part owned by Orfevres owner, one of the best winners in the Arc in recent seasons when scoring impressively last year posting a very good figure (130+) in a very fast time having all in her favour, form has worked out very well with the first 6 winning gr1s at least one each horse since then. Small fillie I think she is very good but has not trained on and is not as good as was last year, last time out put a doubtfull run (117) much less impressive than she was last year when posting a 127+ in the same race , this year has run her best race in the King George (125), a race not ideal for Arc bid, only Dancing Brave, Lammtarra and Dylan Thomashave won both races in the same season and only Workforce run in it too, trying to emulate Ribot winning back to abck runs in the Arc with a King George in the middle, can ran place and is the main danger.
Snow Fairy (124), 21 runs , many group 1 wins in different countries, run to her last time second run of the season after a tendon injury, her best 3 runs have been in 10f on god or gf ground when she can apply her good turn of foot, a big field will be a negative if a big field and as good as I think she is the best I can see her doing is being placed and there some targets in HK, Japan or even Breeders Cup that can be more tempting than running here,
Nathaniel , (128),at his very best this year in the King George, tends to sweat in the prelims ( a negative in a race like this), another not with a summer break, needs soft ground and had a hard race last time out, trainer could be tempted in bypassing the race and going for the Champion Stakes, Frankel is unbeatable but with Cirrus out, the prize money for the second place could be very tempting , especially with the trainers championship in mind.
Saonais (117p), improving horse, best chance of the 3yo in a very very weak generation, I dont have information aboutthe trainer, started the season in Feb after running in Dec, run in all weather, improving fastly, showed very good speed in the Jockey Club, in a bad edition, had a bad travel but not the worst of the field, given a summer break and run very well in the Niel in a very slowly run race, looks like a 10f horse as have been the best sons of his sire, needs to be supplemented and improvea stone on form, style of racing not ideal for a big field, not for me
Shareta has posted more than once this year in my figures 119, today she did a 117+ and looks like able to reproduce her best form last year (122 in the Arc),she is likely to have been the fittest of the 3 winners of the trials today, place chance at very best for me-
Of the rest
St Nicholas Abbey (126), 5yo, exposed, goes better left handed, 6 runs in a season without a summer break is enough for me not to win the Arc, I imagine they will target the BC Turf, unlikely runner.
Meandre (124) not good enough
Masterstroke (113p) not good enough
Imperial Monarch (117p), needs soft ground, bad sign he has not run a trail, weak in the betting.
Sea Moon (125) lacks the pace to win an Arc, no prep, stable having abad season.
No Risk At All (127+t?) , 122+ last time out, good horse, in an unfashionable stable, Arc winners uses to have a good preparation and to be distance winners, with the injury unlikely to run.
Encke (118p), not good enough, Leger a bad trial , needs to be supplemented.
Great Heavens (121p) needs soft ground, unlikely to supplemented, another to go to aScot to help her trainer to win the traines Championship on Champions day at Ascot,
Once the mighty Frankel is not running I dont see nothing stopping Orfevre, I am on at 16/1, but 5/1 is very tempting and in the day in the pmu with the japanase round there can finish at 6/4.
in 3 weeks we have the result.