QM Champion Chase betting

Clive

You don't think CF has the speed for a QM but you do think TNO has the speed for a CH..in what way is TNO any different from the profile of CF do you believe?

If you look at TNO's early form it points a horse with more of a need for beyond 2 miles than CF's does..then they have a season where they drop TNO back trying to make a CH horse out of him..but his biggest win that season came at Aintree over 20f..but they again this year persevere with the 2 mile route..wrongly imo

Surely if CF needs to be aimed at 20f races with the profile he has..then TNO is similar..in fact more of 20f horse than CF..the fact they have won some soft races at 2 miles with TNO doesn't make him a 2 miler..CF could win soft 2 mile races in same manner i would think.
 
Grasshopper said:
Cue Card will win the Ryanair. Still think it's foolish to judge him on runs which were either inadequate or too far in terms of trip. Gets his optimum conditions in the Ryanair, and will show them who is boss.
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Just don't see it Grass. Don't see a spark about him. It is a leap of faith to think he can just turn back time and I hope whatever odds you have him backed at reflect this.
 
EC1 said:
Clive

You don't think CF has the speed for a QM but you do think TNO has the speed for a CH..in what way is TNO any different from the profile of CF do you believe?

If you look at TNO's early form it points a horse with more of a need for beyond 2 miles than CF's does..then they have a season where they drop TNO back trying to make a CH horse out of him..but his biggest win that season came at Aintree over 20f..but they again this year persevere with the 2 mile route..wrongly imo

Surely if CF needs to be aimed at 20f races with the profile he has..then TNO is similar..in fact more of 20f horse than CF..the fact they have won some soft races at 2 miles with TNO doesn't make him a 2 miler..CF could win soft 2 mile races in same manner i would think.
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easy. My view is that he would have won last year without being hampreded badly. No one can deny that he would surely have been more competitive. That puts him right there. There is nothing wrong with a ch needing a little more. We have examples of that. He reminds me of brave inca

cf has been aimed at 3m quickly in his career. We heard lots about how he was bred for that. Not so much now but either way this is not a stand out 2 miler.
 
I'm not in the CF fan club but he has an excellent festival record which counts for something.Yesterday was all about confidence building -he will get a balls out ride at the festival.
 
CF has never been a 2 miler imo Clive...and neither has TNO..i don't see much in either's form to suggest anything has changed

if you look at TNO ..early in career he was aimed at 2 miles..they are trying to make a CH horse out of him..he isn't one..if he was..we would see a bit better than he has shown at 2 miles

as in most cases when a stable try to make a horse what it isn't..those that don't need making what they aren't ..from other stables..beat them..as they are natural 2 milers

you keep talking about last year..it wasn't even a good CH and he didn't win..yes he lost a bit..but that wouldn't have a hampered a horse like him as much as a speed CH horse..it played to his stamina

this year we have a potential Istabraq in it..probably 5 lengths + better than last years race..he has far less chance this year than last
 
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Also tno was very narrowly beaten by a very good horse in a grade one 2m hurdle
Cf was beaten by a questionably good horse I his grade one 2m chase test
 
clivex said:
Also tno was very narrowly beaten by a very good horse in a grade one 2m hurdle
Cf was beaten by a questionably good horse I his grade one 2m chase test
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the word beaten appears in both examples..beaten isn't winning a CH imo

you must have great faith..either that or you have nailed your colours that hard that you won't now can't back down off the TNO project

it so isn't a CH hurdler its not true..imo
 
So now your talking about a horse that has also been aimed at further early in his career? More so in fact.
 
as an aside..did you see Ruby on the ML?.they had STD talking about TNO for a bit..and all the while Ruby had a smirk on his face as if to say..wait and see what we have

Best thing is to just keep backing him Clive if you are that convinced..you will have a large wedge on the day and the pleasure of rubbing me nose in it if he wins..alternatively..no large wedge..and just ignore the thread for a month:)
 
EC1 said:
the word beaten appears in both examples..beaten isn't winning a CH imo

you must have great faith..either that or you have nailed your colours that hard that you won't now can't back down off the TNO project

it so isn't a CH hurdler its not true..imo
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this is poor stuff ec. Time and again. How many horses get hampered like that anyway? And to say it was barely an issue because h stayed is absurd. Beaten but madness not to give some licence

to say again and again he cant compete at top level 2m id destroyed by yge xmas hurdle form . Mtoy is a bloody good hurdler

the idea that last years race is suddenly poor is just another convenient th mantra
 
granger said:
Just don't see it Grass. Don't see a spark about him. It is a leap of faith to think he can just turn back time and I hope whatever odds you have him backed at reflect this.
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Average of 45. Don't see his profile this season is hugely different to previous seasons, tbh. The only real difference is his Betfair Chase runs, and the year he won that, all the clockers were saying it was well short of 3m anyway. I am not in the slightest big worried about the three defeats, as conditions have effectively been against him in all three outings.

I think CC is similar to Remittance Man; capable of mixing it with the very best at 2m, found wanting for stamina in the highest class at 3m, but unstoppable at around two-and-a-half.
 
its not suddenly poor to me Clive...MTOY is a glorified handicapper who won a slow run Betfair hurdle ...and he nearly won the CH

the hampered horse issue is also overplayed by punters..when a horse gets hampered it gets a breather in a race,,yes they lose ground..but the breather is a plus against the negative

you are solely hoping on that hampered..its just hope..especially this year against better oppo
 
I would love TNO to win. The case against him though is very valid.
However, the hampered debate can only be a negative, of that there is no doubt.
 
EC1 said:
its not suddenly poor to me Clive...MTOY is a glorified handicapper who won a slow run Betfair hurdle ...and he nearly won the CH

the hampered horse issue is also overplayed by punters..when a horse gets hampered it gets a breather in a race,,yes they lose ground..but the breather is a plus against the negative

you are solely hoping on that hampered..its just hope..especially this year against better oppo
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Running down MTOY erroneously doesn't boost your TNO argument, EC1.

Calling him a 'glorified handicapper' rather ignores the fact that he was beaten fag-papers in both a Supreme Novices and a Champion Hurdle, and referencing the slow Betfair Hurdle ignores both the bottomless ground that day, and the fact that MTOY won it without coming out of a canter.

FWIW, I think you're bang-on about TNO's chances in the Champion Hurdle,but his proximity to MTOY at Kempton has more to do with the latter's lack of resolution, than any lack of talent.
 
EC1 said:
its not suddenly poor to me Clive...MTOY is a glorified handicapper who won a slow run Betfair hurdle ...and he nearly won the CH

the hampered horse issue is also overplayed by punters..when a horse gets hampered it gets a breather in a race,,yes they lose ground..but the breather is a plus against the negative

you are solely hoping on that hampered..its just hope..especially this year against better oppo
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you really are kidding me surely? I'm not sure I've ever heard it said "we were hampered but thankfully we got a breather"

Hes against one potentially better horse but that's it.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
What do you reckon, Maruco?
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I Think the handicapper had him just about spot on and we were both wrong Mo. If he turns up in the Grand Annual which is the obvious target he' should be beaten by something less exposed. I've crossed him off for the moment and I'll start again when the entries come out.
 
This belongs on the CH thread but never mind:)
Its doubtless been said before but yes he was badly hampered but he got back on terms relatively quickly but it was when he was outpaced coming down the hill that TNO lost any chance and unless he has discovered any more mid race instant change of gear since last year it will happen again.
 
I think throw that think that should ask the jockey? Because frankly that's not his view at all and he was there. He had to get him settled again. That's what happens after these incidents. I'm goin to watch it again I think.

and I'll watch the Xmas hurdle. The idea that tho was only so close because of mtoy s resolution? Certainly that was not any ones impression at the time .

tno is a problem for me only on his hurdling ..although in fairness if he hits one...he can take a fcking breather can't he..
 
Grasshopper said:
Running down MTOY erroneously doesn't boost your TNO argument, EC1.

Calling him a 'glorified handicapper' rather ignores the fact that he was beaten fag-papers in both a Supreme Novices and a Champion Hurdle, and referencing the slow Betfair Hurdle ignores both the bottomless ground that day, and the fact that MTOY won it without coming out of a canter.

FWIW, I think you're bang-on about TNO's chances in the Champion Hurdle,but his proximity to MTOY at Kempton has more to do with the latter's lack of resolution, than any lack of talent.
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Codswallop

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=44fw7gXG0pg
 
Maruco said:
I Think the handicapper had him just about spot on and we were both wrong Mo. If he turns up in the Grand Annual which is the obvious target he' should be beaten by something less exposed. I've crossed him off for the moment and I'll start again when the entries come out.
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I watched the race again today, Maruco.

I might just be clutching at wet straws but I'm not convinced he was off for his life. It looked to me like he blew up two out. He travelled throughout like by far the best horse in the race. He had two heavily backed opponents in Cold March and Keel Haul, especially the latter, off the bit and going nowhere at that stage but the pace setters and chasers ran out of puff late on and Keel Haul was able to run on past them.

I'd be keen to know if EC1 or anyone else did a pace analysis of the race.

If I'm right about him being by far the best horse in the race he could still win the GA but if he's really only a 160 at best he won't be doing anything much in the Champion Chase.

Between him and Sign Of A Victory running badly again, I had more bubbles popped yesterday than kid playing with bubblewrap. :(
 
clivex said:
.he can take a fcking breather can't he..
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here we go..jumping on something ..how many days will this run? ffs

the joke is on you Clive though..i read that years ago...and it was a jockey who quoted it..it was being discussed how many punters jump on unlucky horses and think they have lost loads by being hampered..and the said jockey mentioned it was a fallacy in many cases as horses were given a breather by breaking their pace particularly if fully exerted

so keep mentioning it..you just making yourself look a fool.:)

i'm just quoting a jockey..they should know shouldn't they?

in fact its mentioned in this glossary under "breather"

http://racing.scmp.com/news/general/glossary.asp

i shouldn't need to have post links..people on here that are in racing and deal with horses should actually know this

wish i could remember who quoted it now

please note the word many above..thats not all... ok?
 
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Aragorn said:
MTOY is in no way a glorified handicapper, he is much better than that.
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He's certainly good enough to run in a Champion Hurdle but highly unlikely to win one.

Reminds me of Bird's Nest travels like he did but has the same flaw.

.He tries his best and it's not his fault he just becomes awkward and finds very little to nothing in a finish.
 
I've always said that 2 miles is not TNO's trip but the way I expect the race to be run he could win the Champion Hurdle if there's a flaw in Faugheen

The pace should be electric which should bring stamina into play and he's got a good combination of speed and stamina.

Not a doubt in my mind he's the only horse in the race who can beat Faugheen but that said I think he'll finish 2nd
 
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