QM Champion Chase betting

Also regarding getting hampered Clive..how does a horse still win when its given the field 10-15 lengths like Mr Mole?..or actually stopped in a race like that one McCoy rode..and then still won.

thats being hampered..not losing a few strides in a race

you are over egging it imo..its a handy excuse imo..if it had been nearer home then you might have a case..but no that far out
 
Last edited:
I think TNO has no chance against faugheen, he runs like he needs further and last time out looked like a horse with a back problem.

With regard to hampered, I can see that in some circumstances it could be a blessing in disguise, but for the most part it is still a disadvantage. I've spent quite a bit of my life riding racehorses, hunting, show jumping etc., and in my experience if you're stopped in your tracks you need to use quite a bit of petrol to get back up to speed again. In a race you run the best time if you use energy evenly throughout, so slamming on the anchors and then sharply accelerating isn't going to help. Obviously it depends what stage of the race and how badly you're hampered.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 
I think TNO has no chance against faugheen, he runs like he needs further and last time out looked like a horse with a back problem.

With regard to hampered, I can see that in some circumstances it could be a blessing in disguise, but for the most part it is still a disadvantage. I've spent quite a bit of my life riding racehorses, hunting, show jumping etc., and in my experience if you're stopped in your tracks you need to use quite a bit of petrol to get back up to speed again. In a race you run the best time if you use energy evenly throughout, so slamming on the anchors and then sharply accelerating isn't going to help. Obviously it depends what stage of the race and how badly you're hampered.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

i'll concede the point then Benny..

don't tell Clive though:lol:

where it happens is important though..look at the one that actually stopped with McCoy...thats what i call disadvantaged..and won..

if it happens near the end of a race i can see people thinking..unlucky..but how unlucky was Mr Mole?..still won
 
I don't think MM had a breather at the start though! He was just good enough to give them ten lengths and still win. You can upgrade his performance accordingly. I used to think he was a canine but nowadays he looks a horse on the upgrade and has a chance in the QMCC. Still think DB wins mind.

The other point which you know already is that perceived 'unlucky' loser are often overbet next time and are therefore rarely value.
 
no i wasn't thinking breather with MM..he gave them 12 lengths? and hammered them..how is that possible if getting knocked back a couple lengths is so costly?..the one McCoy rode..stopped..let the whole field pass him..then started up from standing still and still won.

i think its overplayed unless its closer to the finish

so many unlucky horses fail next time too
 
How does that square with your time analysis though EC? Giving them a two or three second start has to take its toll somewhere. Energy is used making those lengths up.

That's why jockeys like spencer are shite - giving away ground at the start is only a good idea if the ones ahead are going too fast and you are going an even gallop. Frank just holds them up regardless. MM would've won much more easily if he hadn't been a dick at the start.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 
I Think the handicapper had him just about spot on and we were both wrong Mo. If he turns up in the Grand Annual which is the obvious target he' should be beaten by something less exposed. I've crossed him off for the moment and I'll start again when the entries come out.

I'd be looking for a novice that's been scarred off from the Arkle as my first point of call

Just for your info, Kibreet in 1996 was the last horse to win this race that improved more than 10Ibs from the start of the season and so still proved they had enough up their sleeve to defy the rise they'd been given

The race is also interesting for how many times it's fallen to a horse that was having its first win of the season. It's about 50% which is quite surprisingly low

Samakaan in 1999 was the last horse to win a Grand Annual, and win more than once during the season before going onto victory. Wins in the seasonal column can be seen as a negative, and 2 wins or more most definitely so

The handicap pattern has been one of a horse that has slowly matured but is roughly on the same mark that it was back at the beginning of October having put in 3 or 4 respectable efforts without winning. Novices also have a good record
 
Our old friend Ted Veale to get entries in County hurdle and grand Annual and most likely run where he is considered best in.( Irish Field yesterday)
A J wily fox martin is considering using a claimer to good effect; cue Shane Shortall or Ger Fox methinks...
 
I'm not sure it was as much as 10 lengths with MM to start with, and then they slowed up going to the first to let him catch up. The race was a bit of a non-event all in all.
 
Talk of Sizing Europe perhaps having another crack.

Probabaly depends if the real SS and SDG turn up or not.

Failing that if he can put in a similar performance that saw him give weight and a beating to Road To Riches a few months ago
the 13 year old who travels so easily in his races could get a few roars from the crowd if still going well at the top of the hill.

He was the star of the meeting 4 years back when winning the race and always seems to enjoy his racing
so I hope he'd fit and well enough to run one more time and add a little more spice to the race before they retire him.
 
What's even more interesting is if they run SDG on Saturday.

It's bound to put him right back in the picture or put an end to his challenge.

Real surprise they are thinking of running him so close to the big one

I would imagine they are hoping that nothing of note turns up and they can get a Holywell type racecourse gallop into him to restore his confidence
 
I watched the race again today, Maruco.

I might just be clutching at wet straws but I'm not convinced he was off for his life. It looked to me like he blew up two out. He travelled throughout like by far the best horse in the race. He had two heavily backed opponents in Cold March and Keel Haul, especially the latter, off the bit and going nowhere at that stage but the pace setters and chasers ran out of puff late on and Keel Haul was able to run on past them.

I'd be keen to know if EC1 or anyone else did a pace analysis of the race.

If I'm right about him being by far the best horse in the race he could still win the GA but if he's really only a 160 at best he won't be doing anything much in the Champion Chase.

Between him and Sign Of A Victory running badly again, I had more bubbles popped yesterday than kid playing with bubblewrap. :(

I think your take is possible. I felt he was beaten by a better handicapped horse carrying less weight but I cocede Croco Bay will come on for the run. Of course we don't know just how well handicapped and it'll be interesting to see what the handicapper gives Keel Haul.
 
Mr mole used as an example of why tno was not inconvenienced by being hampered. It gets weirder.
 
Last edited:
its not being used as an example exactly...the general idea is that disadvantaged has degrees..many horses lose ground within races..some are actually slowed down purposely by jockeys when leading to get a breather in...getting a breather can help a horse see out the race.

TNO was knocked back...and did exert energy to get back..but he also got a lull in exertion by not going the same speed he was when knocked back..we are all guessing just how much that cost him

you are hanging a lot of faith on that guess of what it cost him

i'm happy to agree..it probably did cost him..but not by as much as many seem to think

if it had happened nearer the finish then maybe it cost him the race.

we will see a months time
 
Last edited:
Assuming the New One lost 5 lengths it's not a lot of ground if you have only jumped 3 hurdles. Some jockeys might be happy to be in that position at that stage of the race.

If I was giving those that believe it made a difference I'd guess it would be no more than a length in favour of The New One

What sticks out like a sore thumb to me is it certainly wasn't Sam Twiston Davies finest hour who over did his impression of Mr :cool: something most people seemed to have missed

He gets within a length of MTOY and he's going well at the 3rd last but when Captain Cee Bee kicks and Jezki MTOY and Hurricane Fly quicken with him and The New One finds himself done for toe, Sam TD sits there like a sack of potatoes doing nothing more than giving him slight encouragement and allows the gap to grow back to the 5 lengths he had taken his time making up. DUH!!!

Can anyone imagine AP doing that? AP would have been after the horse the minute the gap appeared and made sure that gap was closed asap....You simply can't afford to give horses a 5 length start at that stage of a Champion Hurdle. 6 lengths if we add a length for the ground lost at the 3rd

How many times have e seen The New One run? Almost always he needs stoked up like a steam trains fire to get him into top gear. .
No one could say it was a good ride it was a huge mistake IMO

Little doubt he'll beat Jezki this time round I think that's a no brainer but if he's going to catch Faugheen he's going to have to get him going before the Mullins horse kicks at the top of the hill and not after. He gets a 6 length start on him and it's all over.
 
some interesting points there Tanlic...by sitting you think he lost more than when hampered?..very possible especially when you think that TNO needed to be near any pace they set..to let them get 5 on him you would think he was a speedy horse and jockey is thinking..well i've got speed to pull it back..when he should really have always been near them as he isn't a speed horse.
 
Two things:-

1. No matter how much you debate this it still doesn't help anyone figure out if TNO will beat Faugheen.

2. This is the Champion Chase thread.
 
1. No matter how much you debate this it still doesn't help anyone figure out if TNO will beat Faugheen.

True, but debate can still be stimulating so long as any points being made are done so respectfully and,ideally, with evidence to back them up. If we knew what the outcome would be for anything we wouldn't need a forum.
 
Bringing it back to 2m chases....
Champagne Fever lost by a nostril last year in a time that was faster on GS than Sire De Grugy's on Good the next day. Can't be a bad Arkle and a good QM. I've said before that it's a bet on the day job but, if it were tomorrow I'd be on CF ew.
 
to be fair..the bare times won't tell you anything..in fact they are likely to actually tell you the opposite of what you think without further looking nto....they can be just misleading altogether

they were on two different surfaces..you don't know the pace that has created them..and the overall times might be recorded as much as 2 seconds out depending on what happened immediately after they pass the starter..overall times in RP can be misleading

so quite a lot in the mix there
 
Last edited:
Taking your advise and looking into it further EC the RP times do seem to tell us something and they pretty much fit in what egdt points out as being a big factor.

Maybe you can correct me if I am wrong here but I reckon the course was watered when probably there was no need to

Described as good to soft on the first day the going stick was 6.9...describes as good on the second day but the going stick 7.5
If the course were being truthful wouldn't the going stick readings have been the other way round???

Anyway all the times were faster on day 1 than they were on Day 2 which had to be due to the change in the ground conditions/watering or it at least it would seem that was the reason

Day 1 Going g/s 6.9
The fastest run races were The Champion Hurdle, The Arkle and The Supreme in that order


Day 2 Going Good 7.5
The fastest run races were the QMCC the RSA and the Neptune in that order

That's pretty much what you would expect

The Arkle was run much faster than any other chase that day.....Fast by 4.96 Holywell fast by 1.2 Present View slow by 1.2

The QMCC was only slightly faster than the RSA 3.51 to 2.68

It would indicate the Arkle was run in a comparatively fast time but then Champagne Fever was out there setting a nice even pace but in the QMCC Special Tiara was making the running one minute then Somersby the next and in between times. Arvika Legionaire had has head in front for a while. I the meantime Sire De Grugy is out the back having a sleep.

The only question left really is would Sire De Grugy been able to make a similar move earlier and go on to win if Champagne Fever had made the running in the QMCC. The way he made his ground up and the ease with which he won the QMCC I would have to say yes.
 
Last edited:
I've calculated speed figures for both days using RP standards..adjusted by 1 second to allow for the new timing method..its not as extreme here as it was at less competitive meetings...where you need to knock about 4 off every standard time.

One thing to bear in mind with Cheltenham..don't let track records here make you think the ground is rock hard..most of the past records were actually produced on Good ground..Cheltenham differs re track records from nearly every other course in that the best races..therefore the best ever times are recorded on Good ground. Every year when i hear..oh its nearly a track record..i just know that most punters will assume fast ground..its not.

The first day works out at perfect middle GOOD going...nil going correction was necessary.

11-Mar-14154

<tbody>
[TD="width: 129, bgcolor: #FFFFCC"] Cheltenham [/TD]
[TD="width: 45, bgcolor: #FFFFCC"] 4 [/TD]
[TD="width: 224, bgcolor: #FFFFCC"] VAUTOUR [/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC"] 11-Mar-14 [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC"] 154 [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC"] Cheltenham [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC"] 4 [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC"] WESTERN WARHORSE [/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC"] 11-Mar-14 [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC"] 98 [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC"] Cheltenham [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC"] -47 [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC"] HOLYWELL [/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC"] 11-Mar-14 [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC"] 165 [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC"] Cheltenham [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC"] -5 [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC"] JEZKI [/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC"] 11-Mar-14 [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC"] 83 [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC"] Cheltenham [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC"] -84 [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC"] QUEVEGA [/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC"] 11-Mar-14 [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC"] 91 [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC"] Cheltenham [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC"] -48 [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC"] MIDNIGHT PRAYER [/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC"] 11-Mar-14 [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC"] 125 [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC"] Cheltenham [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC"] -12 [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC"] PRESENT VIEW [/TD]

</tbody>


First figure is the speed figure..related to OHR..the coloured figure is race fast or slow by lbs

Second day..after watering?..a bit slower

The going is now -20 lb per mile slow...still GOOD..just

12-Mar-14154

<tbody>
[TD="width: 129, bgcolor: #FFFFCC"] Cheltenham [/TD]
[TD="width: 45, bgcolor: #FFFFCC"] 2 [/TD]
[TD="width: 224, bgcolor: #FFFFCC"] FAUGHEEN [/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC"] 12-Mar-14 [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC"] 153 [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC"] Cheltenham [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC"] 3 [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC"] O'FAOLAINS BOY [/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC"] 12-Mar-14 [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC"] 131 [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC"] Cheltenham [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC"] -22 [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC"] WHISPER [/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC"] 12-Mar-14 [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC"] 169 [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC"] Cheltenham [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC"] -1 [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC"] SIRE DE GRUGY [/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC"] 12-Mar-14 [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC"] 126 [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC"] Cheltenham [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC"] -4 [/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #FFFFCC"] HAWK HIGH [/TD]

</tbody>


Sire De Grugy has run faster than Western Warhorse by 15lbs...which on their OHR's at that time isn't far out...both races look proper tests for class level based on overall times


remember..don't shoot the messenger:)
 
Last edited:
One of the Cheltenham boys can confirm or deny (Roger, Darren?), but they never used to water the same course after racing. It used to be day 1 watered, day 2 unwatered, day 3 watered, day 4 unwatered.
 
Back
Top