QM Champion Chase betting

Very upbeat messages coming from seven Barrows re. The Black Aeroplane......sparkling work and jolly near back to his best!!my head says champagne fever my heart says sprinter.
 
Double Handful said:
All we need to do is take a look at the Amlin Chase in November....... He put everyone off Al Ferof (5/2 Fav) - urging caution about his 'Match Fitness' and was VERY bullish on a number of different channels about the Chances of Bury Parade (6/1 Outsider). Al Ferof hoses up by 7 Lengths and Bury Parade Pulled up before 2 out !!! Enough Said :blink:
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so what?

Does every trainer know exactly how a horse is going to perform on the day? I don't think so,........but I would back him to have a better idea than a number of leading trainers.

the alternative is he says nothing or waffles away opaquely . Take it or leave it.
 
links781 said:
Very upbeat messages coming from seven Barrows re. The Black Aeroplane......sparkling work and jolly near back to his best!!my head says champagne fever my heart says sprinter.
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Nicky and Geraghty never have anything bar positive updates about SS. He could be on three legs and they would still sound positivity
 
Give it another couple of weeks he will have done the most sparkling but of work NJH has seen for three years.....13/8 come the day
 
All the big trainers are media trained these days and can talk a lot while telling you very little.I think I nearly prefer the John Kiely/Jonjo approach where they wouldn't tell you the day of the week.
 
With Champagne Fever pretty much confirmed for this now it is shaping to be the race of the meeting by quite some distance. I do wish they'd send CF to the Ryanair though and reading between the lines so does Willie.

I don't see the logic from the owners now that Djakadam is being aimed at the Gold Cup. Surely they don't think Ballycasey is going to win the Ryanair do they?
 
For those that complain he doesn't give hard and fast certainties, I remember well being at sandown preview before ror's ch. he was very bullish and mentioned him as being overpriced a good few times. As ever he gave clear reasons why. I didnt back him but freinds took the hint.

I see no reason to ignore comments. Who knows the horse better?

Main thing is that he is clear. Comments repeated here about Cheltenham plans were concise and gave good strong opinions. Rather that than some of the tiresome opaqueness from other supposed talented trainers
 
I remember PN giving very clear messages that Denman was back to his best for the 2009 Hennessey. He still went off at 5/1. I like Nicholls.


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Have to agree with Clive, Nicholls is probably the straightest shooter out there when it comes to horses wellbeing and running plans.

Might no be the most likeable bloke but he has my respect.
 
TheBear said:
I don't see the logic from the owners now that Djakadam is being aimed at the Gold Cup. Surely they don't think Ballycasey is going to win the Ryanair do they?
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Mullins has said a Handicap most likely for Ballycasey.
 
clivex said:
For those that complain he doesn't give hard and fast certainties, I remember well being at sandown preview before ror's ch. he was very bullish and mentioned him as being overpriced a good few times. As ever he gave clear reasons why. I didnt back him but freinds took the hint.

I see no reason to ignore comments. Who knows the horse better?

Main thing is that he is clear. Comments repeated here about Cheltenham plans were concise and gave good strong opinions. Rather that than some of the tiresome opaqueness from other supposed talented trainers
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I also remember PFN telling anyone who would listen, that Twist Magic wouldn't go a yard on the Soft ground at Sandown.....about 15 minutes before trotting-up in the 2007 Tingle Creek. He even managed to repeat the feat in identical circumstances in 2009.

Trainer talk is just that....talk. You only ever get to hear what they want you to know. Listening to Martin Pipe being interviewed, was like being trapped in an Escher painting 99% of the time, but the one time he did mark everyone's card - Unsinkable Boxer's win in the (now) Pertemps Final - he couldn't have been any more bullish. He was telling everyone to play-up their winning from another of his horses that day, on UB the following day, and his post-Pertemps quote remains one of the best in racing:

Interviewer: Martin, when did you start celebrating Unsinkable Boxer's victory?
Pipe: The night before.

Nicholls is generally amongst the best of them, to be fair, but the competition isn't exactly stiff, and if you ignore most things a trainer says and concentrate on the form book instead, you probably won't go far wrong.
 
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Paul Nicholls is the worst judge in the world. Some trainers like him will cost you a lot of money listening to them.
 
Nicky Henderson for me has done a fantastic job with Sprinter Sacre and showed the patience of a saint.

The same patience he showed with See You Then when winning 3 consecutive Champion Hurdles with him.

As Grassy suggests you can ignore what Nicky Henderson has said if you think the opposition is stiff

If you do chose to ignore it and use the form book what you expect to find is what?

Sprinter Sacre last had a real race 22 long months ago before running the Tingle Creek winner dodging Bullets to 3 lengths?

I wish I had a $ for every horse who left that sort of form a mile behind after only a 3 month break, the next time they ran.

If you believe what everyone, not just Nicky Henderson, at Seven Barrows are saying if the race were run tomorrow Sprinter Sacre would reverse placings with Dodging Bullets without batting an eyelid.

Given the skills of Nicky Henderson as a trainer and the time he has left I reckon the QMCC is a foregone conclusion.

Only a combination of two things can stop Sprinter Sacre turning the race into yet another procession. If his ailment has left a scar so deep it's knocked a stone or more of his ability and everything else runs right up to their mark or better.

I really don't like those odds ..So I am backing Sprinter Scare yet again........cya all at the payout window :lol:



Can we now discuss what is going to finish 2nd :D
 
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JamesRB said:
i'd lay even money he sees a racecourse again
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SlimChance said:
Paul Nicholls is the worst judge in the world. Some trainers like him will cost you a lot of money listening to them.
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Level stakes profit again this season. Don't listen and back blind perhaps?

For a bad judge he seems to place his horses pretty well.

Grass. I agree that form is first second and third but I cannot ignore comments altogether. There is a bit of a tendency to hang on to the greivances in betting isnt there?
 
For a forum stuffed with posters who don't heed what trainers say, there was a helluva lot thanked Qzy for Willie Mullins' thoughts yesterday. :lol:
 
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