QM Champion Chase betting

EC1 said:
here is the statement a few of you need to learn.. i got it wrong

you will be better for it

Euro..CF would have won?..what a load of old nonsense..deary me...he needs 2.5 miles for one
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You are talking to people like they are kids mate.......... I think I know I got it wrong? as did the trainer the work rider and the jockey.

Sh1T happens but it does not change the fact that the way the race turned out it was a very moderate renewal.

In fact it was so poor Dodging Bullets should be dropped a good few pounds for winning the race. imo

161 2nd 150 3rd....or if the handicapper is so fooked up in the head he'll put Special Tiara Somersby up to 173 and DB? give him a nice round number say 175.


What rating would you give him for that win?
 
My immediate reaction to today's race is that is a poor one.

Somersby?

Now, it's possible that this was one last hurrah for him and I'm prepared to allow him one last shot at his lifetime peak (my own figures) of 168 even though he's looked a pretty solid 164 horse on the pick of his better form of the last year or so. SDG probably either found the ground against him or, more likely, in my opinion, left his race behind at Chepstow. SS obviously isn't back yet after all but this was too bad to be true. Special Tiara wasn't good enough, as expected, but is probably a big pointer to the value of the form.

It looks to me like Dodging Bullets didn't do any more than in his previous two races - possibly didn't really need to.

I don't think I'll be looking back at this renewal with any sense of awe... unless it's followed by the F word.
 
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clive - as a big fan of nicholls who is a brilliant trainer and brilliant judge - you may be interested that he said afterwards that he viewed fever as the biggest danger. i dont think its ridiculous for anyone to make that point given how the race panned out. and this is speaking as someone who followed sprinter over the cliff. bullets has improved and glad he won given how he was campaigned this season but i think the fever could have given most to think about. i thought they'd be racing for 2nd foolishly
 
clivex said:
I think its pretty obvious why

For a start it denigrates a worthy winner and fine training performance. Secondly it is posted here as if it was an inevitability he would have won, a horse that (unlike db) doesnt win many top races. Thirdly, its hardly sticking ones neck out to say that hes probably better over further
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I think you're having a go at someone else there. I'm not arguing he wouldn't be good over 2m5 as I'd have backed him in the Ryanair if he'd gone that way.

It's also not sticking your neck out to say he would have had a good chance today with a run. I've not said it was inevitable.
 
Got to give credit to DB and the team at Ditcheat, he has improved hand over fist.

Can't help but feeling extremely gutted about the way SS went out like a light. He has gripped me like he has done to many others, and it is so disappointing to see him no where near the horse he was a few season ago, it's such a shame. Horses like him (in his peak) don't come round very often.
 
When's he never Bullish about anything?

He said Dodging Bullets should have been favourite for the QMCC for Pete's sake..... the man's mad :lol::lol:
 
To put it straight, there were comment(s) that cf would have won. Not necessarily from you

I didn't have a bet on the race as it happens. I think it will be moderately rated by qmcc standards but that still makes it a great race.

One other her thing worth noting is that this years and last years winners actually ran a bit this season. None of this Holyghost and bobs missing bollocks
 
I was mildly amused to see Graham Cunningham ask the question about Champagne Fever, and Jim McGrath ducked it -

I don't think he's a difficult horse to take a read on. He has a pretty strong seasonal pattern and has put in clunkers in December and January throughout his career. You back him with a degree of faith and hope he comes good when the temperature rises

Dec & Jan = 2, 1, 2, 3, 3, 4, F
other months = 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 3, 1, 2, 6, 1, 1

There's enough grounds to believe he'd have been factor given the proximity of a yardstick like Somersby.

Like last year though, the time for the Arkle was quicker than the Champion. Personally, I'm far from convinced that last years Arkle was the poor race that everyone assumes it was because a horse that no one backed or considered won it. I've got a speed rating that says it was more than up to scratch. Simonsig's was a much weaker renewal but no one mentions that because the favourite horse won
 
Was there a late shoe change for SDG?? I thought I just briefly heard something about he was not allowed to run in his new plastic shoes (1st tried at Chepstow) and had to revert to metal plates..

Not using this as any excuse or anything like that. Just wondering does anyone else know more details on that?
 
Warbler said:
I was mildly amused to see Graham Cunningham ask the question about Champagne Fever, and Jim McGrath ducked it -

I don't think he's a difficult horse to take a read on. He has a pretty strong seasonal pattern and has put in clunkers in December and January throughout his career. You back him with a degree of faith and hope he comes good when the temperature rises

Dec & Jan = 2, 1, 2, 3, 3, 4, F
other months = 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 3, 1, 2, 6, 1, 1

There's enough grounds to believe he'd have been factor given the proximity of a yardstick like Somersby.

Like last year though, the time for the Arkle was quicker than the Champion. Personally, I'm far from convinced that last years Arkle was the poor race that everyone assumes it was because a horse that no one backed or considered won it. I've got a speed rating that says it was more than up to scratch. Simonsig's was a much weaker renewal but no one mentions that because the favourite horse won
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What about May then ? When he was crap

arkle last year is judged on form. Ww was beat and not seen since. Valdez trifolium and especially grandouet have done nothing leaving just db who has clearly stepped forward strongly

speed rating does not make up for the fact that the race was stuffed with subepsequent underwhelming losers (bar one)
 
clivex said:
What about May then ? When he was crap
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What about it? It's in there. That's where the '6' came from!. I think you'd be more inclined to interpret that as being over the top for the season (plenty of horses struggle to hold their form into Punchestown). Denman was beaten by Planet of Sound and Kauto Star by Follow The Plan

His two worst performances came at Punchestown, there might actually be a left handed preference in his profile too. It's not as pronounced, and he has won right handed of course, but he's really won races he's been entitled to win
 
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granger said:
Henderson less so but Geraghty spoke some shite about SS for the last month.
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Geraghty called it as he saw it, is a genuine open jock yet you slag him off (but wouldn't dare do it beforehand). Maybe you would prefer all jockeys were like Michael Stoute or if they speak it is only to give the winner?
 
If all jockeys were like Michael stoute racing would have a problem getting the things out the starting gate let alone finishing.

You wouldn't be able to get the jocks out of the sauna either.....

but Agree with point made
 
Hamm said:
Geraghty called it as he saw it, is a genuine open jock yet you slag him off (but wouldn't dare do it beforehand). Maybe you would prefer all jockeys were like Michael Stoute or if they speak it is only to give the winner?
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Geraghty would talk up a donkey off Blackpool beach as a potential Champion Chase horse if he was riding it. I'm not criticising him for having that attitude but as a punter you have to take what he says with a pinch of salt.
 
There is an old saying Bear..bookies are always glad to take bets off owners..trainers... jockeys..oh and sectionalers..they are glad to take them..tells you the game doesn't it?

there must be a reason for that saying musn't there?..you can't beat the old sayings i find.
 
:lol: Must be Barry the Bull your thinking of Bear :lol: Barry Geraghty is one of the least bullish jockeys on the circuit.....he fancied Sprinter Sacre but so did everyone at Seven Barrows........Can't see inside a horse not his fault or NJH that they were wrong...just one of these things.
 
No...you can't go blaming a trainer for how his horse runs really..he only trains it..how would he know?

Now if you asked Nicky about his days with Ronnie Barker.. his info is spot on...great days they were..the horse training thing just passes his time now..he's not really bothered if they win or lose i wouldn't imagine..in fact i've been told he doesn't actually train them..the gardner does that bit
 
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