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Queen Elizabeth II Stakes

Don't panic, don't panic. Thanks to Ascot's new layout the going is officially "heavy, soft in places, heavy in Swinley Bottom and good to firm in the straight".

Something for everyone - no excuses on the ground for any of the contenders on Saturday :)
 
It was Nexus and then they shut it as the barmaid sold drugs to the Chief Constables daughter who was only 16 at the time anyway, do I get it?
 
EC1 said:
The ground was not the same at Longchamp as it was in Newmarket


correct..the times say it was slower at Newmarket..but HTN won ...so just what was wrong at Longchamp?

the horse has done for the season on that run..one before was nowhere near good enough to win this either

is there another reason for him losing in France?...crap ride for one?

it certainly wasn't the gorund or he would not have won the guineas
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The ground was not loose on top at Newmarket as it was in France. Just look at the video...Murtagh was clearly not happy with how he was moving on the surface after just a furlong. Added to that he had a desperate draw...the horse was out of position from a half furlong into the race.

At Ascot on Saturday he will travel a whole lost sweet on good ground or faster.
 
well we might not agree on this Gal..so..move on to form

Do you not think that Tamayuz is clearly on an upward spiral while it would be fair to say that Henry isn't?

Tamayuz looks rock soild and has improved with every race he has run in,,nigh on.

Using Ravens Pass & Major Cadeaux as guides he is already a better horse than Henry...and we still haven't seen the complete article...whereas we seem to have with Henry

At Goodwood...Henry was close to losing to RP even though he was expected to win easily...hence 4/11f...could you see RP beating Tamayuz anytime?
 
EC1 said:
well we might not agree on this Gal..so..move on to form

Do you not think that Tamayuz is clearly on an upward spiral while it would be fair to say that Henry isn't?

Tamayuz looks rock soild and has improved with every race he has run in,,nigh on.

Using Ravens Pass & Major Cadeaux as guides he is already a better horse than Henry...and we still haven't seen the complete article...whereas we seem to have with Henry

At Goodwood...Henry was close to losing to RP even though he was expected to win easily...hence 4/11f...could you see RP beating Tamayuz anytime?
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The Goodwood race is not reliable. The pace was woefully too slow early on (won't see Winsdor Palace pacemake again) and Henry was in front from 2 furlongs out.

No horse with his turn of foot should be seeing the front end of a race that early...I said it at the time.

Tamayuz deserves plenty of respect, but 2/1 about Henry on Ascot "Good" ground? Yes please...
 
agree Goodwood race was a farce re pace...but O'Brien had control of the race...why didn't the pacemaker pace it up for Henry...has he got too used to pacing up races slow instead of true?

go back to Ascot..RP was not going to pass Henry but was only 3/4l behind him

Tamayuz beat RP by 1.5L...has arguably improved a couple of lbs since when winning in Deauville...and has still more possible improvement..which puts Tamayuz about 4/5lbs+ better than Henry...so how can Henry beat him?...on paper of course

2/1 is poor value imo..Henry wouldn't win this often enough to make it so..I reckon RP could finish in front of Henry as well as they stand at this moment in time
 
EC1 said:
agree Goodwood race was a farce re pace...but O'Brien had control of the race...why didn't the pacemaker pace it up for Henry...has he got too used to pacing up races slow instead of true?

go back to Ascot..RP was not going to pass Henry but was only 3/4l behind him

Tamayuz beat RP by 1.5L...has arguably improved a couple of lbs since when winning in Deauville...and has still more possible improvement..which puts Tamayuz about 4/5lbs+ better than Henry...so how can Henry beat him?...on paper of course

2/1 is poor value imo..Henry wouldn't win this often enough to make it so..I reckon RP could finish in front of Henry as well as they stand at this moment in time
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You're first point about the pace, look at the race, Windsor Palace could not go any quicker...O'Brien admitted after the race that the pacemaker simply was not good enough...hence that horse did not turn up in France last time.

To me they have ridden Henry wrong since the Irish Guineas. Even at Ascot I felt he took it up soon too soon. I would like to see them ride him confidently as in the Irish Guineas where despite travelling all over the field Murtagh did not ask him to hit the front until the half furlong marker.

It will be interesting to see how good Tamayuz is and how he will handle this quicker surface.
 
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Jacques le Marois (Group 1) 8 ran TIME 1m 36.40s (fast by 2.00s)

that isn't far of top side of Good...can't see it being much faster at Ascot so he won't be meeting ground he hasn't won on before
 
If the forecast is right, I think Ascot, particularly in the straight, will ride good to firm. Brave man to take alot of those French times as gospel, they make the Irish time system look reliable!
 
I think Henry has struggled on the only 3 occasions he has encountered going with the word "soft" in it. So imo if it rides Gd or firmer on Saturday then he has to rate banker material. Ascot has been a graveyard down the years for the French, particulary in this race, and that is often due to the going (the French spend most of their season running on softer going) but also to the testing nature of Ascot (any stamina doubts exposed) and the short straight - a lot of the French jockeys can get into trouble turning in.

Provided he gets his ground I think Henry hoses up - and I would take the 2/1 now as he looks a classic subject for an almighty Tabor instigated gamble come Saturday afternoon.

Of course what do I know with 9 consecutive losing months under my belt!!!!:mad:
 
numbersix said:
I think Henry has struggled on the only 3 occasions he has encountered going with the word "soft" in it. So imo if it rides Gd or firmer on Saturday then he has to rate banker material. Ascot has been a graveyard down the years for the French, particulary in this race, and that is often due to the going (the French spend most of their season running on softer going) but also to the testing nature of Ascot (any stamina doubts exposed) and the short straight - a lot of the French jockeys can get into trouble turning in.

Provided he gets his ground I think Henry hoses up - and I would take the 2/1 now as he looks a classic subject for an almighty Tabor instigated gamble come Saturday afternoon.

Of course what do I know with 9 consecutive losing months under my belt!!!!:mad:
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Fair enough points, with one exception. The French regularly call their ground soft when there is no justification for that description, and any serious punter should always base his analysis of French going on the times, although the sneaky bastards can be funny about those too. ;)
 
I have seen this point being made a lot about the inconsistency of the French going.

There was a time the RP used to carry the French penetrometer readings but they dont seem to anymore (certainly not online). I remember Brough Scott banging on for years about how the French used a sophisticated measure and we still used a stick. However we now have something similar to the penetrometer so shouldn't goings be more accurate across the board (I am assuming our gauge is similar to theirs)?
 
It doesn't matter how they measure it when the consistently refuse to class any ground as Good To Firm or faster.
 
Erm, 2 of the last Arcs were run on officially "good" ground. In fact, since '97 4 Arcs were run on good and 1 on good to firm! the 1988 running was even run on firm going! Am I missing a point here or something!

Also, why am I not the only insomniac!!!;)
 
Here's the going descriptions and the percentage of turf flat races they cover at the big five French tracks (Longchamp, Chantilly, Deauville, Saint-Cloud & Maisons-Laffitte) taken from the RP database in the last 10 full years ('98-'07):

Total sample: 10342

15% Heavy
8% Holding
15% Very Soft
15% Soft
17% Good To Soft
30% Good
1% Good To Firm

Good To Firm ground and faster is massively under-reported over there.
 
from the Sportinglife:

Trainer Freddie Head believes Tamayuz is still on the upgrade ahead of Saturday's Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot.
The French handler just hopes conditions are ideal for the colt at the weekend.
He said: "Tamayuz is in very good form and I have been very happy with him since he won at Deauville last time (Prix Jacques le Marois).
"I just hope it is fast ground or good ground, that will be fine for him.
"We have supplemented Racinger and he will try to make the pace for us.
"I am looking forward to the race and looking forward to taking on Henrythenavigator.
"We had Goldikova who beat him in the Prix du Moulin at Longchamp last time so hopefully we can do it again."
 
Gareth Flynn said:
Here's the going descriptions and the percentage of turf flat races they cover at the big five French tracks (Longchamp, Chantilly, Deauville, Saint-Cloud & Maisons-Laffitte) taken from the RP database in the last 10 full years ('98-'07):

Total sample: 10342

15% Heavy
8% Holding
15% Very Soft
15% Soft
17% Good To Soft
30% Good
1% Good To Firm

Good To Firm ground and faster is massively under-reported over there.
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Good work Gareth - do you painstakingly keep records or is there a way of extracting reports off their database?

Is the UK going stick different to their penetrometer then? Why are they using a supposedly scientific measure which so obviously appears to be misleading - as you rightly imply surely the weather in Paris from March to November is not significantly wetter than say southern England is it?

Surely it is high time a uniform measure was adopted worldwide for turf racing? Certainly this would be more informative for potential breeders - currently French raced stallions would appear to have a soft ground bias but from your stats this is probably not true. Does Louis Romanet post on here?;)
 
Totally off the top of my head, Bago's Arc, Rail Link's Arc, Scorpion's GP de Paris and last year's Arc trials (where Manduro did himself a mischief) were all run on ground that was at least Good To Firm ground.

I think the problem is that they're afraid of Firm appearing in the going report because it might scare off runners. If that's the ground they want to report then they just set the penetrometer scale accordingly; no device like the penetrometer or GoingStick is of any use unless the results they produce are interpreted correctly.
 
Am I right in thinking that the French going is determined first thing in the morning and then not changed for the rest of the day? I was told that a little while back, not sure if it's true or not (that's how much notice I take of French racing).
 
it must rain an awful lot in france:eek:

i thought we had the worse weather

go by the times..then work out why Henry lost LTO..otherwise you are taking 2/1 on a backward number..bad idea at this time of the year

Henry...place lay?
 

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