Queen Elizabeth II Stakes

What has Henry beaten?

New Approach, who has proven to be not as good as many thought and Ravens Pass, who has failed to win in four attempts at the highest level. What the hell is his rating based on? A quick time at Ascot?

I get the feeling that Henry doesn't have much in the locker that we haven't already seen.

Tamayuz on the other hand might not have the form in the book yet (but interesting that he beat RP eased down by further than Henry has managed on his last two outings put together), but if he is on the upgrade and the easing down is symbolic of having more in the tank then I'd expect him to win.

Wait for the press to go to town on the ground, the UK/Ire money to come for Henry, the French horse to drift and then wade in.
 
There is rain about. Not heavy but at this time of year i cant see it being "like a road" on saturday

Much as i like Henry i agree with EC. It was clearly not a biog at Longchamp...anything but. Ground and draw might not have been ideal but the way he travelled at longchamp as to be a concern. And its that time of year too. Even with AOB's skills it is never going to be easy to have a horse peaking at this stage to same extent they were in the spring.
 
clivex said:
There is rain about. Not heavy but at this time of year i cant see it being "like a road" on saturday

Much as i like Henry i agree with EC. It was clearly not a biog at Longchamp...anything but. Ground and draw might not have been ideal but the way he travelled at longchamp as to be a concern. And its that time of year too. Even with AOB's skills it is never going to be easy to have a horse peaking at this stage to same extent they were in the spring.
Click to expand...

If the horse was over the top he simply would not be running, he would be retired. The market support, comments from his trainer and the fact he is lining up suggests they are happy with him. The ground was not a bog at Longchamp but just look at the race – the ground was lose on top firing up lots of divets- a fast ground horse like Henry would always struggle on that surface.

If he loses on Saturday it will because he is not good enough, not due to him being over the top.

As for the ground, Ascot is different to everywhere else. The fact they are going to water already tells you how much it has dried out. Great forecast as well.
 
He doesnt have to be "over the top". But can be short of his very best form. Does every horse only run two ways?

Its probably quite close between the principles and it wouldnt take much for the balance to shift.

Wouldnt be running and retired? Presumably the same criteria applied when running Dylan thomas at the end last season
 
clivex said:
He doesnt have to be "over the top". But can be short of his very best form. Does every horse only run two ways?

Its probably quite close between the principles and it wouldnt take much for the balance to shift.

Wouldnt be running and retired? Presumably the same criteria applied when running Dylan thomas at the end last season
Click to expand...

No completely different criteria....DT was half way across the world and they owed it to Hong Kong for allowing him to run in it when they changed the quaranteen rules for him. He also was not over the top...just a victim of his own appetite!

If you think Henry ran close to form in France that means Henry at his best is a half length/ to a length better than Sageburg. A his best Henry would eat him up and spit him out.
 
Last edited:
If you think Henry ran close to form in France that means Henry at his best is a half length/ to a length better than Sageburg. A his best Henry would eat him up and spit him out
Click to expand...

No i didnt say that

I am saying that HTN didnt run to his best and its a fair chance that it was more than the ground responsible. As for the draw, wasnt Sageburg drawn more or less alongside HTN?
 
No i didnt say that

I am saying that HTN didnt run to his best and its a fair chance that it was more than the ground responsible. As for the draw, wasnt Sageburg drawn more or less alongside HTN?

I think most people are purposefully clinging on to the ground and draw being the cause Clive...that way they can talk themselves into believing HTN has not shown signs of a downward trend in his last two races.

Logic says that if the draw was such a neg..then HTN being so much better than Sageburg ...who had similar neg..should still have won.

There is no way that Longchamp was different from Newmarket re going...the times say Newmarket was lprobably more holding...both were drying ground.

Good ground comes in two forms to my mind...there is Good ground that was G/F...and Good ground that was Soft...the former is easier to get through...whereas drying ground is tackier.

On both occasions HTN was facing tacky ground...one race he won the guineas..in the other he has run lbs below and not even looked like winning.

That has to be a concern for anyone backing him Saturday...because in reality he has NO excuse for that run in France
 
Galileo said:
No completely different criteria....DT was half way across the world and they owed it to Hong Kong for allowing him to run in it when they changed the quaranteen rules for him. He also was not over the top...just a victim of his own appetite!

If you think Henry ran close to form in France that means Henry at his best is a half length/ to a length better than Sageburg. A his best Henry would eat him up and spit him out.
Click to expand...

I totally agree with Galileo here. Clivex if you believe something else caused HTN's demise at Longchamp other than the prevailing ground and draw, then you really need to quantify this, otherwise you are merely stabbing in the dark in the hope that if he is defeated you can come on here and TRF and say "told you so".

The raw facts are that on the 3 occasions HTN has encountered going softer than Good he has run well below form. Either one is prepared to accept this is coincidence, or that the horse simply cannot put his devastating gear changes to proper use in bad ground. I like to believe what Aidan O'Brien tells us, and he is fairly adamant the horse cannot run up to his true form in bottomless ground.

You could ask why did AOB run him at Longchamp that day - well, with the Sadler's Wells influence on his dam's side, one would have thought soft going would not inconvience HTN, so maybe AOB thought he would try him one more time just in case the underpermances in soft at 2 were down to something else.
 
O'Brien ran the horse because the ground was not bottomless or that soft. The problem was it too loose on top, horse couldnt grab hold of it from the moment he left the stalls.

The ground at Ascot should be an all together different proposition as I imagine Henry will be. The 2/1 is long gone about him...
 
I think HTN will hack up provided the heaven's do not open - but I for one wont be having a bet as I am on a self imposed 4 week sabbatical!
 
I suspect they were knocking a loose top off what was, underneath, fastish ground. A bit like the ground at Royal Ascot at York. The Prince of Wales's was won by Azamour that year in a time 0.95s faster than standard despite the leading horses finishing down the middle of the track. The RP report said:

Although front-running Elvstroem and Touch Of Land stayed towards the far rail when they straightened up, the race developed up the centre of the track and they came home strung out like jumpers under conditions that visually appeared pretty soft. However, while jockeys reported that the ground was moving underneath them, and the sensation was likened to spinning wheels, the winning time easily beat the Racing Post standard, which suggests it was only soft on the surface.
Click to expand...

Some horses just don't handle that kind of ground.
 
Gareth Flynn said:
I suspect they were knocking a loose top off what was, underneath, fastish ground. A bit like the ground at Royal Ascot at York. The Prince of Wales's was won by Azamour that year in a time 0.95s faster than standard despite the leading horses finishing down the middle of the track. The RP report said:



Some horses just don't handle that kind of ground.
Click to expand...

I agree.
 
I never said FAST ground Gal, you are adding your own slant on that. Good ground is not fast ground.

Some horses don't handle that ground..but the same horse can handle considerably slower conditions?

How do you know that HTN doesn't relish ground like Longchamp?..that would make him even further below par then?

I think you are trying to convince yourself he didn't handle it to help excuse the loss.

I know the problem...not long ago on this board about 80% of you were telling me that HTN was the best miler seen for years...when trying to use the argument that NA running 2nd to him twice was the very best mile form seen for years and that NA would have won most other guineas...when it was clearly an average renewal.

now ..said superhorse gets turned over..and it's...oh I know he didn't handle a bit of loose ground because he has hooks for feet that need a solid surface to grab hold of...such a surface he did not have when winning the 2000 guineas??

A lot of excuses given..missing the fact that HTN never looked like winning...bad draw...wrong ground...wrong type of air to breath etc.

He never really took part did he?

It's a great game this when you think about it...we are so convinced we can see this correctly...even though we hold totally opposite views...there is no other game that can do this I reckon:cool:
 
EC1 said:
I never said FAST ground Gal, you are adding your own slant on that. Good ground is not fast ground.

Some horses don't handle that ground..but the same horse can handle considerably slower conditions?

How do you know that HTN doesn't relish ground like Longchamp?..that would make him even further below par then?

I think you are trying to convince yourself he didn't handle it to help excuse the loss.

I know the problem...not long ago on this board about 80% of you were telling me that HTN was the best miler seen for years...when trying to use the argument that NA running 2nd to him twice was the very best mile form seen for years and that NA would have won most other guineas...when it was clearly an average renewal.

now ..said superhorse gets turned over..and it's...oh I know he didn't handle a bit of loose ground because he has hooks for feet that need a solid surface to grab hold of...such a surface he did not have when winning the 2000 guineas??

A lot of excuses given..missing the fact that HTN never looked like winning...bad draw...wrong ground...wrong type of air to breath etc.

He never really took part did he?

It's a great game this when you think about it...we are so convinced we can see this correctly...even though we hold totally opposite views...there is no other game that can do this I reckon:cool:
Click to expand...

The reason why I think he does not relish the Longchamp ground (and sorry to everyone else for repeating myself again and again) is because he was never travelling - even in the first furlong....the jockey clearly was not happy with him from the word go and (not surprising to most) he came in saying he did not travel on the ground. O'Brien stated in the build up the race that he was worried about the ground.

As for the NA thing...a load of rubbish...bring up a quote from me that suggests HTN has had the best form over a mile "in years"...In fact NA never even came into my mind until you brought him up.

As I have said already on this thread, the French horse might well beat Henry on Saturday ( I personnally do not think he will)...in fact I have stated there will be no excuses for Henry on Saturday e.g ground, the suggestion that he is over the top etc etc. If he is beaten it will be because he is beaten by a better horse (unless there is an obvious traffic problem or something).
 
I think Galileo is spot on again - HTN did not travel well in the Moulin. Precisely the same impression was given in his two defeats at 2 on soft going. Although he fared better in the Futurity than in the Phoenix, he was still inconvenienced enough by the prevailing underfoot conditions so as not to be able to cut New Approach down in the same way he did 9 months later in the Guineas.

I would also be surprised if he is "over the top". Although he started back in May that was his first run for nearly 9 months, and late September is a bit early for horses to go over the top. That usually happens around the time of the Cambridgeshire meeting.

Also he has had a gap of 5 and then 6 weeks between his last couple of races, so it is not as if he has been totally worn out.
 
Euronymous said:
The ground was Good to Soft for the Moulin not Good. If it`s good or g/f on Saturday Henry will beat Tamuyuz.
Click to expand...

On my ratings, I'd say the ground was Good looking at the times. The Racing Post came to the same conclusion.

I'd rather back Tamayuz who I think is still improving rather than Henry who I think is starting to feel the effects of a hard season.
 
numbersix said:
Although he started back in May that was his first run for nearly 9 months, and late September is a bit early for horses to go over the top. That usually happens around the time of the Cambridgeshire meeting.

Also he has had a gap of 5 and then 6 weeks between his last couple of races, so it is not as if he has been totally worn out.
Click to expand...

The Cambridgeshire is only a week later than the QE2!

He's only had a 3 week break this time, I'm enjoying the drift in Tamayuz myself.
 
Gamla Stan said:
The Cambridgeshire is only a week later than the QE2!

He's only had a 3 week break this time, I'm enjoying the drift in Tamayuz myself.
Click to expand...

Sorry, meant the Cesarewitch!

Tamayuz actually started this campaign 3 weeks earlier than Henrythenavigator, and only had 6 months between his 2 and 3yo campaigns. He has had one less race than HTN this term, so that hardly makes him a candidate for being in some way a significantly fresher horse. Notwithstanding HTN's underperformance in the Moulin, the line through Natagora puts little between him and Tamayuz. So if one is of the opinion that HTN was inconvenienced by the ground at Longchamp, then he must rate a banker on Saturday.

Incidentally, since 1988 9 winners have contested 5 or more races previously in their QEII winning season. 6 ran 4 times, 3 ran 4 times and 1 (Summoner) just the once. So statistically at least HTN has absolutely nothing to fear from going into the QEII on the back of 5 runs. I think with the modern trend towards giving classic contenders their seasonal debuts in the Guineas as opposed to pitching up two or three weeks earlier for a trial, means that horses like HTN can last out the season better, with the Breeders Cup Mile no doubt on the agenda as a swansong if he does well on Saturday.
 
Back
Top