Road to Punting Success 2011

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Gearoid

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It being a new year, I'm wondering what are your punting tactics for the year. We have touched on this on the Today's Fancy thread from time to time. I'm a disaster for not keeping exact figures for the year. I was most impressed to hear Euro say he had records going back for years. I lose interest after a couple of months. If anyone wants a spreadsheet to keep records email me at gearoidn@gmail.com.
 
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Keys for me would be:

-Avoid certain meetings that are traditionally bad - Aintree in April and the July meeting stand out.
-Try not to get too heavily involved in really competitive races. That's especially hard to keep to at Cheltenham but my NH records show I do better outside of the Festival.
-Be aware of basic mistakes made in the past and don't repeat them. An example would be something like trying to get the best price possible on a cover bet. Just take the price available at the time.
-At big meetings have a look at every race. A couple of years back at Royal Ascot I was so tuned into the Prince of Wales and the Hunt Cup form study that I overlooked the Windsor Forest and Sabana Perdida skated in at a nice price against an overrated Stoute hotpot. That error fecked me for the whole meeting and beyond.
-Make sure you are happy with the potential winnings before every bet is settled. Being light on a winner is worse psychologically than a loser.
 
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Good post. I especially like your last point. I can take losing like a man but not backing winners or having a poxy bet can really do awful things to my mindset.
 
Euronymous-regarding your first point as a rule I avoid the Dante,Ebor and July meetings.I also tend to avoid the early days of Royal Ascot and Goodwood but show me a Dundalk/Wolverhampton double header on a Friday night and I will punt away like a man possessed.
This time last year I wrote down some guidelines with the aim of improving my punting by a theoretical 5per cent-I must dig out those notes.
 
Please do Luke. I really think think this is a year that losing overall in punting is not an option. Any leaks simply have to closed. With wages down and credit non existant it's a realistic with to get say the price of a holiday.
 
- Keep records, if you don't, there's no point in carrying on. I'm now at a stage where I keep records religiously and I arguably get a kick out of seeing how I'm doing over a specific time period in black and white.

- Know your prices, I price every race I bet in upto 100%, I've gone through patches where I've got very cocky with myself and thought I didn't need to do it and thought I could tell an 8/1 shot was "value" and got stung. You will lose money if you back a horse because you "fancy it", you should be fancying a horse's price, not the horse itself.

- I only punt on the flat and all-weather, I couldn't devote the time to both codes and the jumps doesn't interest me at all. Regarding avoiding meetings, the only one I now swerve are Ascot and Goodwood and I tone down my punting at both of those tracks too. Epsom isn't the nicest either come to think of it. I think these are personal preferences though.

- Very very rarely lay off a bet. If you've backed something at 10s and it's now 6s, don't get out of it unless you think the horse won't take part. There is simply no need to "lock in a profit" because if you're backing horses at 10s that go off 6s consistently, you won't need to lock in a profit as you'll be in profit long-term.

- Have some form of staking plan in your head, it doesn't need to be religious but if there are some basics there, it helps. I tend to bet to about a maximum of 3% of my betting bank per bet. I'll have more on a 16/1 shot than a 3/1 shot the majority of the time if the difference in prices between bookmakers and my own is significant enough.

- Know the mathematics of gambling, don't back things to place on Betfair when you can get a better price on the place by betting EW with bookmakers, it still staggers me the number of people who don't get this. A very good friend of mine who I'd consider a reasonable judge will still back things to place at 11/10 when you can get 10/1 with 1/5 odds place terms.

- Keep your punting money separate from your everyday money, very important this one. Open up a separate bank account for punting, it helps you stay much more disciplined and focussed both with your punting and managing your finances.
 
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Your last point is sownthing I have been thinking over. It makes perfect sense and I had intented doing it a years ago. My only problem is I like to withdraw any winnings. On a busy punting week I could be up or down a couple euro but have drawn down over a grand from my bank account. Plus I'm not sure I could take the torture of setting up another bank account in the current climate.
 
Gamla Stan said:
- Very very rarely lay off a bet. If you've backed something at 10s and it's now 6s, don't get out of it unless you think the horse won't take part. There is simply no need to "lock in a profit" because if you're backing horses at 10s that go off 6s consistently, you won't need to lock in a profit as you'll be in profit long-term.
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One strategy I started using last year was partially laying off in running. This works well with pace horses and ones that travel well. Obviously I don't want to compromise potential winnings so I overbet my selection and then put bids in. In the Nassau stakes last year I piled onto Stacelita at 5s and 6s and managed to get 9/4 and 7/4 matched IR. Even animals that come nowhere near winning can be laid at really cramped odds. I punted Get me out of Here at 9s and 10s for the Greatwood and got 7/2 matched IR. If those two had won I would have netted more through following this strategy than simply having my normal bet on. Of course it is risky and I did lose a lot more than I wanted to on Fame and Glory in the 09 Arc.
 
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Gearoid said:
Plus I'm not sure I could take the torture of setting up another bank account in the current climate.
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I used to have separate accounts and the betting one had a tidy interest rate but had a minimum funding of £500 a month. Not a problem, but when I started using Betfair it became one as money returned from them counted as a refund rather than a deposit. They even started fining me for not funding the account properly. Two accounts equals twice the hassle so I nixed it a couple of years back after mucho shouting on the phone to them.

I also think it's a psychological thing. In the early days I'd listen to a race on the phone at work and if my selection lost I'd be morose for the rest of the day as I thought I'm not earning money today, I'm just paying for that fecking bet. Sometimes one needs to just get a grip.
 
ABout that ew gambling. If the horse places, you will always lose the win part. Im not saying its right to abck 11-10 place only, because i certainly would want a higher price but people say 20-1 shot, when it places, he gets a 5-1 or 4-1 odds of place horse is simply not true since you lose your win part of the bet.
 
Will said:
ABout that ew gambling. If the horse places, you will always lose the win part. Im not saying its right to abck 11-10 place only, because i certainly would want a higher price but people say 20-1 shot, when it places, he gets a 5-1 or 4-1 odds of place horse is simply not true since you lose your win part of the bet.
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A punting friend of mine cannot come to terms with this - he treats a 16/1 that places as an ew winner at 4/1 instead of the 6/4 shot it actually is! He claims that the win portion doesn't count! It frustrates the bejaysus out of me. I prefer to back in place markets if I don't fancy one strongly enough. Prime example was Powerstation at Christmas was 14/1 in the morning but 3/1 in the place Market with PP. Boots filled instead of losing the win stake of an each way bet !!
 
As a betting ninny, can I ask why you don't cover your win bets with an e/w as well? For example, your POWERSTATION, OTB - suppose you'd bunged on £50 to win and then a cover (a sort of 'in case he doesn't' bet) of £25 e/w? Would that not be better than just the win single or the e/w? Is betting the win single every time not more about testosterone and competitiveness than 'wimping out' with e/ws? :lol:
 
I bet to win money not to measure up against the fella beside me at the urinals!! That particular bet was struck because I thought Mourad would probably win the race but at 6/4 or so was no value to me. Powerstation was on the otherhand overpriced against s bunch of novices who had yet to prove themselves in that company - and as the place Market overpriced him at 3/1 (14/1 at a fifth the odds non handicap) it was the bet to do without throwing the very unlikely win portion at the books!
 
I rarely bet win only, and when I do the horse usually comes second [Character Building at Cheltenham a few years ago being the worst]. And if I have a bet on French races they're usually disqualified.
 
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Cheers, OTB! I'm not so sure about blokes betting, though - I've often thought that their sneering attitude to my "Did you do it e/w?" shows the old primeval hunting instinct rearing its competitive head: you go for the direct kill to bring down the mammoth or bust - trapping rabbits is for wusses!

Would you say, though, that you could make as much money backing some canny e/ws through the year (or maybe more) than the risk-it-all strategies for win only bets?
 
Gearoid said:
Your last point is sownthing I have been thinking over. It makes perfect sense and I had intented doing it a years ago. My only problem is I like to withdraw any winnings. On a busy punting week I could be up or down a couple euro but have drawn down over a grand from my bank account. Plus I'm not sure I could take the torture of setting up another bank account in the current climate.
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Not sure what it's like in Ireland but as long as you're on the voters roll and don't have a bad credit history, it's a piece of piss to open one here. I have an RBS for my personal money and a Lloyds for my punting, I try and make sure I always have enough for myself in my personal and only move money across when I deem I can afford it on either, I basically treat them as separate lives now!

Regarding the EW bets, you shouldn't really be backing one to place only if you don't think it has a chance of winning anyway! Bad EW betting is one of the bets bookies hate more than any other and for a simple reason, they will lose on them.
 
krizon said:
Would you say, though, that you could make as much money backing some canny e/ws through the year (or maybe more) than the risk-it-all strategies for win only bets?
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My boss made his money and set up his business from betting bad EW races professionally Kri, he had an army of putter onners in shops across the country at one stage.
 
That's terrific, Gamla - it gives me heart to Carry On Wussing! I lost all my little bets today, but the only time I've had a heartening couple of returns were on 20-1 and 100-1 e/ws. One was MEMBERSHIP (who I wrongly thought had gone off at 12s!), who I felt was well overdue a win -came 1st, and t'other was Ferdy Murphy's Bumper horse PETER PAN DE SOLZEN - came third but rewarded my thought that no Murphy horse could seriously be that price. Not that the animal has been sighted since!
 
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Would you say, though, that you could make as much money backing some canny e/ws through the year (or maybe more) than the risk-it-all strategies for win only bets?[/QUOTE]

Absolutely K, maiden hurdles in Ireland are a prime example where there is an each way steal against a warm order and you basically have a bet to nothing or even a marginal profit - I like to have a cut at a bit of value in big handicaps and invariably you have to back these ew! When I back my own when they are fancied I usually back them to win a certain amount of money and save my stake with an ew or place bet. But if I really fancy one (like Welds in the bumper today) and the word is good then lumpy win is the way to go!
 
Gamla Stan said:
Not sure what it's like in Ireland but as long as you're on the voters roll and don't have a bad credit history, it's a piece of piss to open one here. I have an RBS for my personal money and a Lloyds for my punting, I try and make sure I always have enough for myself in my personal and only move money across when I deem I can afford it on either, I basically treat them as separate lives now!
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Is there an online bank that could be used? I'll have to think about it. In theory in makes perfect sense but not so sure it would work without me having to be put through the mill.
 
If you bet ew it gives you the courage to back an unfancied horse at a good price. I've had some very good bets over the years at huge prices; Jacqueline Quest was the last good one, especially as they paid out 'first past the post'. I know my old racing mentor used to sneer at ew bets; 'man or mouse' he used to laugh at me.
 
Would you say, though, that you could make as much money backing some canny e/ws through the year (or maybe more) than the risk-it-all strategies for win only bets?[/QUOTE]

Absolutely K, maiden hurdles in Ireland are a prime example where there is an each way steal against a warm order and you basically have a bet to nothing or even a marginal profit - I like to have a cut at a bit of value in big handicaps and invariably you have to back these ew! When I back my own when they are fancied I usually back them to win a certain amount of money and save my stake with an ew or place bet. But if I really fancy one (like Welds in the bumper today) and the word is good then lumpy win is the way to go! Bets so far this year:
Byerley Bear 7/1 ew Maiden Hurdle Cork - Won
Credit Swap 5/2 early sp 4/1 win Novice Hurdle Leicester - Won
Barker 7/2 on course - Conditions Chase - Won
Euphorous 10/11 on course - maiden hurdle - won
Si C'etait Vrai 4/6 on course - novice hurdle - 3rd
Mister Carter 15/8 - 4 yo hurdle - 5th
Ballyfitz 16/1 Ew - Welsh National - 4th
Prima Vista 5/1 win - MCR Hurdle - Unplaced
Final Approach 12/1 ew MCR Hurdle - Won
Waaheb 11/8 win - 4 yo Bumper - Won
 
Gearoid said:
Is there an online bank that could be used? I'll have to think about it. In theory in makes perfect sense but not so sure it would work without me having to be put through the mill.
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Smile are a pretty good online bank and I've heard good things about First Direct despite the fact they're owned by HSBC.
 
OTB - I imagine that 12/1 ew on PRIMA VISTA paid for the day all right! Now, bear with me, 'cos I'm a total zero-brain at maths, but why would you back 10/11? What's in it for anyone at those sort of odds? As a virtual non-punter, I've never understood (as in, comprehended the maths or the benefits) betting on Evens or those huge 'against' figures. There has to be a reason, as serious punters are far from nutters, so what's in it?
 
1- Specialise, and watch those races you are specialising in very closely. It is still possible to spot things that the vast majority, or most importantly the market doesn't. Various ways to specialise, hurdlers, chasers, trips, 2-y-os, all-weather etc. But have sound reasoning for choosing that particular code.

2- The seperate bank thing is good advise but following on from that, don't set unachievable targets, and try to take a long term view. Losing days and losing weeks are no big deal in the grand scheme, expect them. It's when you continue to have losing months you have an issue.

3- Don't let it become a chore, if it does, walk away and find something better to spend your time on. Remember why you first got interested into racing? Ensure the game doesn't just become about grinding out a profit. Far easier to study races with a positive outlook.

4- Leading on from what others have said, have an idea about what sort of price you expect/think a horse should be. Pricing up races is a good way of starting out this procedure. From this don't be too afraid if you price a race up and it looks nothing like the actual forecast. Remember you don't want it to be the same, otherwise there's no edge, so ensure you are pricing to what you think is their theoretical chance of winning rather than what they are likely to be. Don't waste time pricing up horses/races that you aren't confident about, but if you are specialising and doing the right work, there shouldn't be many of these races.

5- Back more winners. Everyone loves to talk about value, and the theory behind it is obviously correct, but it's winners that put bread on the table.
 
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