Road to Punting Success 2011

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davidjohnson said:
Chances are if you're right it won't drift.
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Not always true imo. Yes, most of the time you should be backing shorteners and I'd say 70-80% of what I back does shorten but you should use the safety net of BOG wherever possible if you can as it will certainly improve your bottom line long-term.

Edit: Just re-read your post David and I'd probably agree with you about taking best price rather than taking BOG in most circumstances however I'd rather take 11/2 BOG than 6/1 non-BOG but only when the difference is marginal like that.
 
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Just reading through the advice above, and the point about doubles and trebles is well made.

However, I sometimes ignore that rule when doing ante-post as I want a legendary coup that I can tell my grandkids about while they're changing my bag in the nursery home.

Ante-post betting is also a waste of time, but I persist for the reasons above. I am down overall in the past 4 years ante-post betting, in spite of having a right touch on Master Minded at 28 or something on Betfair his first CC year. And another decent one on Menorah.
 
Here's a question, you have info on a minority type sport that has early prices and your able to back selections e.g. take 12's about a 7/1 shot, 11/4 about 7/4 shots but you know little about the sport, there is a betfair Market if you're thinking of trading, low levels of liquidity though, do you back them blind knowing your getting well over the odeverY and delve into the sport to do the research? Monitor the results and hope you get a decent idea of it's success rate before the angle disappears?
 
I've often meant to really study a very obscure race at a gaff track on the day that there's a high profile meeting going on. May give it a go on Saturday....
 
There'll always be a point somewhere were Betfair is irrelevant - at least in terms of knowing what the "true" price is rather than what people are prepared to take.

In racing (in the UK and Ireland) Betfair is long established over a period of 7 or 8 years and as such there are plenty of people willing to play who know more than the average punter does, are restricted by regular bookmakers and haven't worked out how to get on etc. but do you think this is the case with something like domestic volleyball in Russia pre-match?

It would depend on who was informing you of the true price, is that your opinion or just one bookie being 3 or 4 points bigger than the others? Who's to say who's right and who's wrong?
 
to be fair no one is right or wrong..anyone who makes his own prices is purely guessing as there are factors that cannot be measured involved

the only way to know if you are getting value is if you have won at end of year...making a book on each race is just kidding yourself on in reality
 
Of course it's guessing, but the more you follow a group of horses, the better your guessing tends to become I find.

And you are correct that only the end of each punting year will your figures tell you whether you've been betting at value prices or not, but without processes like making your own books, how are you going to find perceived value in the short term?
 
But it isn't about the short term, it's about, for me anyway, getting it right half a dozen times a year at nice prices.
 
Regarding BtB's point about the life changing bet-on the run up to the festival one year my nap was Anzum for the Stayers Hurdle at a mind blowing 66/1,I also thought the blinkers could transform See More Business who was 25/1 for Gold Cup and I thought Bellator could get placed in the Champion Hurdle at 50s.Various ew doubles trebled and Yankees were placed at bookies in northwest London but I didn't make any attempt to cover all bases.
I went home to Ireland for the festival that year and got well and truly hammered on St Patricks Day which is remembered mainly for Nick Dundee falling.
Suffering from a horrendous hangover I deserted SMB for Florida Pearl but remained strong on Anzum.
To cut a long story short what was a good day could and should have won me the price of a decent house for a modest outlay.
 
You've cut it too short: "what was a good day could and should have won me the price of a decent house for a modest outlay.... " won you what? Somewhat better than a 14" pizza with extra sausage topping, surely? You can tell us - most of us will believe you!
 
davidjohnson said:
Of course it's guessing, but the more you follow a group of horses, the better your guessing tends to become I find.

And you are correct that only the end of each punting year will your figures tell you whether you've been betting at value prices or not, but without processes like making your own books, how are you going to find perceived value in the short term?
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because once you have found a way of showing a profit you just keep doing the same thing..the time saved "making a book" can be spent smelling roases and such :)

i laugh when folk say..well i made it a 12/1 shot but it started at a "value" 25/1

the difference in % between a 12/1 and 25/1 price is about 4%..i doubt even Einstein could formulate a method of " making a book" thats accurate to the nearest 4% with racehorse betting. No one can accurately predict to such small values..thats why i say they are having themselves on.

why make a book?..when its not actually going to be that accurate...just have 100 bets..if you are losing after a 100 then it matters not a jot whether you made a book..a book that in reality is probably accurate to the nearest 10% or higher...you are backing poor value horses..overall..the key word here.
 
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If you want to make it pay long term, you don't have life changing bets. Life changing bets not only lead to potentially big wins, but also, bank-blowing losses. Slow and steady (and it some eyes boring) wins the races.
 
EC1 said:
why make a book?..when its not actually going to be that accurate...just have 100 bets..if you are losing after a 100 then it matters not a jot whether you made a book..a book that in reality is probably accurate to the nearest 10% or higher...you are backing poor value horses..overall..the key word here.
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If you have 100 bets. I think you've got more chance of being infront after if you've considered what price each horse in the race should be, than if you just try to back the winner.

It's obviosuly not black and white, like you say there's no point doing a tissue if you are just a rank bad judge
 
davidjohnson said:
If you have 100 bets. I think you've got more chance of being infront after if you've considered what price each horse in the race should be, than if you just try to back the winner.

It's obviosuly not black and white, like you say there's no point doing a tissue if you are just a rank bad judge
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but who is a really great judge in respect of making a book?...you just cannot factor prices accurately enough for it to be worthwhile....so why do it?

its just hunch playing picking winners at the end of the day..you get methods and ways of reading form that give you lets say 50% insight into a race..you then have 50% you can't really measure..so 50% of your "book" is total guesswork.

I'll give an example..one aspect many don't even consider is the pace of the race..without even considering that people are making a book...how on earth can you predict the outcome of a race by totally discarding that aspect? Lets say you do consider pace..you try and predict the way it will pan out..but you are wrong 50% of the time..even though you know every horse's running style...simply because 2 or 3 or more horses don't do what you think they will do.

Most of us on here know a fair bit about horse racing...basically you look at a race and start analsyisng it automatically..purely due to the fact you have a great experience of looking at races.

I'll ask a question...lets say two people look at a race..one has 20 years of analysing races..the other has never looked at a race...how much edge does the 20 year man have over the newcomer do you think?
 
EC1 said:
I'll ask a question...lets say two people look at a race..one has 20 years of analysing races..the other has never looked at a race...how much edge does the 20 year man have over the newcomer do you think?
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In any particular race perhaps a little. Over a series of races the experienced punter would (or should) have a huge advantage. The one with the experience would filter out stuff the other could not hope to gauge.

The only sure way of knowing how you are getting on is to record every bet you make. By refining your method and knowing how you fare over any given season you will improve markedly.
 
SteveM said:
In any particular race perhaps a little. Over a series of races the experienced punter would (or should) have a huge advantage. The one with the experience would filter out stuff the other could not hope to gauge.

The only sure way of knowing how you are getting on is to record every bet you make. By refining your method and knowing how you fare over any given season you will improve markedly.
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but how good at guaging so called important aspects is the experienced reader?..maybe he would over estimate certain aspects in the beilief that they hold a massive edge when in fact they don't..the novice might actually hold an edge purely by his inexperience..basically the inexperienced one may consider horses that may look up against it by the experienced one.

its virtually impossible to compare these two types of punters chances isn't it?

and yet..people who make a "book" are suggesting they can predict the chance of a horse winning a race with the many variables involved.

most people..have a method or read form and conclude that horse A should win..that horse should automatically be the favourite in his world..if it isn't then that person has got a perceived value in his world..and thats about it..no one can measure a horses chance to fine degrees.
 
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I agree with EC1 on this - I do price up races just to position the horse I fancy (for form, going, distance, pace and hunch reasons - sometimes a tip from a trusted source - inside information) in a whole market to establish it's relative position. If it's a 4/1 shot in my book and 6's in the market then I may have an edge. But if I price a horse that I don't fancy at 8/1 and it is say 12/1 in the market I wouldn't back it. I think watching as much racing as you can - communicating with knowledgeable people on the subject and Reading extensively gives you a solid grounding to make an informed decision.
 
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I think EC1 makes a very interesting argument and is one of the reasons I started the thread. The betting forums, racing media and even betting shop punters are now all obsessed with the word value. I'm sure I use the word too much myself. I read Dave Nevison's books and he says that he can tip a horse in the morning to his subscribers because it's bigger than his tissue but by the time he gets to the races, if the market has changed, he ends up backing a different horse in the race! That is the extreme use of a tissue and surely unless you are willing to do that than all you're doing is 'back fitting'. In that you fancy a horse that is priced at 16/1 and find reasons to think it's an 8/1 shot?


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davidjohnson said:
there's no point doing a tissue if you are just a rank bad judge
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I think I'd be in the "rank bad judge" category insofar as doing my own tissue is concerned. I'd be bound to come at it with preconceived ideas and I'd end up subconsciously trying to skew the odds in favour of the horse I fancy for the race.
 
Ultimately if you are of the opinion that the favourite of a given race is worth taking on then it shouldn't be too hard to find a horse or two that are nice prices. You shouldn't need to price up all the runners. The perfect example of this would be Big Bucks first World Hurdle. Kasbah Bliss was odds-on when it could be argued he shouldn't even have been the market leader so there were value prices all over the shop.
 
Euronymous said:
Ultimately if you are of the opinion that the favourite of a given race is worth taking on then it shouldn't be too hard to find a horse or two that are nice prices. You shouldn't need to price up all the runners. .
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I said something similar earleir Euro. Finding one to take on is the key.
 
The Christmas Hurdle is a very well formed market. Does anyone disagree with any of the prices?

2/1 Binocular
5/2 Starluck
10/2 Khyber Kim
6/1 Overturn
8/1 Escortmen
250/1 Bocamix

I fancy Khyber Kim and therefore I could argue he should be shorter in the betting than Starluck but does that make 10/3 value? Probably not.




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It's a similar race to last year if you sub in Khyber for Go Native and Binocular was a lot shorter that day so his penchant for the odd dodgy run is factored into his price. Looks a no bet race to me.
 
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